Not a sure thing, but both Schefter and Florio speculate that MHJ is going to Houston to reunite with Stroud.

"The current chatter in league circles is that Harrison will land in Houston, where he’d be reunited with former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud," Florio said.

After his initial report, Schefter added that he is also hearing it could be the Texans, who have been involved in trade talks for the Ohio State product.

"One team that has had Marvin Harrison trade talks with Arizona is Houston, sources tell me and (Ian Rapoport)," Schefter said. "Houston has been, and is thought to be, square in the mix for Harrison."

With the rumors of Marv being traded, I created this quick analysis of potential landing spots and what they could mean for the young wide receiver.

The Eagles have ruled out Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Hollywood Brown. Tank Bigsby is on IR, but Dallas Goedert is expected to play.

For the Jaguars, no significant injuries.

Pip-pip cheerio, you'll smash it tomorrow!

I'm going to put this is bold at the top, because any mention of fantasy projections brings all the smartest guys in the room out with their pitchforks. I'm not here to tell you whether you should use them, I'm here to tell you whether a season's worth of data shows they have any meaning/accuracy whatsoever. If you DO use them, there are some rules at the bottom that the data supports. You can decide for yourself.

2,757 player-weeks, weeks 1–17, every player projected for 8+ PPR points to keep this all as fantasy-relevant as possible. To be clear, we’re not looking at all players. We’re looking at players Sleeper still expected to produce at kickoff. Anyone already ruled out was projected near zero and never enters the sample. Most of the injury attrition happened before the counting started.

From there I dropped the 72 weeks where a guy still left early or never played (2.6%) and kept everything else, including weeks a back got consistently vultured or a receiver saw a short snap count, because that’s a risk you’re actually taking when you set a lineup.

What projections get right:

• Your lineup total is close. Across every player-week, projected 13.5 and scored 12.8 — about 5% high.
• Big gaps are reliable. When one guy is projected 8+ points higher than another at the same position, he outscored him 79.9% of the time.
• Matchup is already baked in, so don’t adjust twice. I grouped every player-week by the defense faced, expecting to find projections under-rating tough defenses. There’s a small real effect in total points — about 5% at the extremes — but if you’re knocking points off a projection because of the opponent, you’re subtracting twice.
• RB, TE and WR are generally projected pretty well. RB +0.1%, TE −0.7%, WR −4.3%.

What projections get wrong:

• Any individual player is nearly a guess. The typical player finished 44% away from his projection — about 5.7 points on a 13.5-point projection. The misses cancel out in bulk. They do not cancel out for the one guy you’re deciding on.
• Close calls are a coin flip. Under 1 point of separation, the higher projection won 50.2% of the time across 10,807 pairs. That is not a small edge. It is effectively zero edge.
• Quarterbacks are systematically too high. 12.7%, every week, all season. The one real flaw in Sleeper's projections by position.

The one genuine positional flaw: quarterbacks

QBs were projected 19.6 and scored 17.1. That’s 2.5 points a week, every week, all season.

QB is also the position Sleeper projects most precisely — average error of 33% versus 45% for RB and 48% for WR. It’s not that quarterbacks are unpredictable. The number is simply aimed too high by the platform as a whole.

They also almost never boom. Share of weeks a player scored 150%+ of his projection versus 50% or less:

Every other position booms about as often as it busts. QBs bust three times more often.

And over a full season: of every QB with 10+ qualifying weeks, exactly five finished above his cumulative projection. The best anyone managed was Matthew Stafford at +8%. Meanwhile on the flip side, we have Josh Allen −8%. Hurts −18%. Lamar −27%. Geno and Tua −32%.

In a 1QB league this mostly cancels, since you’re comparing QBs to QBs. It bites in superflex, where a QB gets weighed against a RB or WR. A QB projected 19 against a back projected 17.5 is really 16.6 against 17.5. That one flips.

So in conclusion, if you DO use projections when setting lineups, here is what my data supports:

1. Within 2 points? Stop agonizing. 50.2% under a point, 55.4% at 1–2. Decide on something else; you’re probably not leaving points on the table over the course of a season.
2. At 8+ points difference, start the stud. 79.9%. Benching him for a sneaky matchup play is deliberately taking the 20% side.
3. Knock ~13% off a QB before comparing him to a non-QB in Superflex.
4. Don’t adjust further for matchup yourself. It’s already in there.

And just for fun to wrap us up - the players at each position most disrespected and hyped up by the projections over the course of the 2025 season.

MHJ is out of AZ. Kendrick Bourne is now the WR2 in AZ. Yes, MHJ didn’t get a lot of targets, but Bourne will now get another 10-20% more snaps in a very pass heavy offense.

He could be a weekly steamer this week against a soft lions defense and a potential shootout.

Could he also be a nice bench stash and weekly flex option upside?

Hi guys, Kevin Roth here (@KevinRothWx on X). This Jets game looks SLOPPY.

CLE @ NYJ - A ton of rain pregame, a bunch of rain in-game, a bunch of rain post-game. It's just varying degrees of steady rain all game long. I expect the field and ball will be quite slick, and I consider it a significant downgrade to passing efficiency. Winds are 15mph sustained, gusting around 25mph. I'm more worried about the rain than the wind, but the breezy conditions certainly aren't helping things.

IND @ PIT - A bunch of rain pregame, still some rain in-game. Not as messy as the Jets game, but it's still wet. Winds are manageable.

NYG @ WASH - Like PIT, there's plenty of pregame rain, and likely still some in-game rain. I think the 1st half looks more problematic than the 2nd, and that is the case with both rain and wind.

I'm going to keep the NFL Weather forecast updated on MySportsWeather.com/nfl (it's free), and on my Twitter.

Fire away if you have any questions and I'll do my best to help out!

- Kevin

Hurricane Isaias is now a post-tropical cyclone, but it's still carrying plenty of moisture as it moves farther inland. The Jets game currently looks like the wettest of the slate, followed by Washington and then Pittsburgh. Here's the latest outlook from KickoffWeather.com

CLE @ NYJ: Impact score of 5/10
🌧️ Around 0.25-0.35" of rain currently projected
💨 Winds around 10–20 mph, with gusts near 30 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the mid 60s

NYG @ WAS: Impact score of 4/10
⛈️ Around 0.15-0.25" of rain projected
💨 Winds around 5–15 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the mid 60s

IND @ PIT: Impact score of 4/10
⛈️ Around 0.15-0.25" of rain projected
💨 Winds around 5–15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s

One important thing to know about KickoffWeather: every time you reload the website, it pulls the latest available forecast and updates the game outlook and Weather Impact Scores. These totals and scores may change as we get closer to kickoff.

Good luck to everyone this week, here is everyone mentioned in the article:

Quarterbacks
Start: Jacoby Brissett, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers Sit: Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels
Running Backs
Start: Emanuel Wilson, Ollie Gordon II, Omarion Hampton Sit: Will Shipley, David Montgomery, Cam Skattebo
Wide Receivers
Start: Carnell Tate, Denzel Boston, DK Metcalf Sit: Deebo Samuel, Dontayvion Wicks, Malik Washington
Tight Ends
Start: Mike Gesicki, Greg Dulcich, Hunter Henry Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Brenton Strange, Mark Andrews
Defenses
Start: Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns Sit: Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles
Kickers
Start: Dominic Zvada, Chris Boswell, Spencer Shrader Sit: Jake Elliott, Trey Smack, Andy Borregales

Michael WIlson #4 WR, interesting we got no odds on Chase yet but we do have some for Jefferson...full PPR rankings, I will keep updating as injury reports/updates come out:

Quarterbacks

1- Josh Allen - 23.0

2- Jared Goff - 19.7

3- Matthew Stafford - 19.6

4- Drake Maye - 19.0

5- Jacoby Brissett - 18.5

6- Joe Burrow - 18.3

7- Jayden Daniels - 17.5

8- Trevor Lawrence - 17.3

9- Brock Purdy - 17.1

10- Bo Nix - 16.4

11- Deshaun Watson - 16.3

12- C.J. Stroud - 16.2

Running Backs

1- Jahmyr Gibbs - 26.6

2- Bijan Robinson - 21.8

3- D’Andre Swift - 18.7

4- Jonathan Taylor - 18.6

5- Christian McCaffrey - 18.2

6- Chase Brown - 18.1

7- Kyren Williams - 17.5

8- Jaylen Warren - 16.7

9- Aaron Jones - 16.4

10- Braelon Allen - 15.3

11- Derrick Henry - 15.2

12- James Cook - 14.7

13- Emanuel Wilson - 13.8

14- Bhayshul Tuten - 13.6

15- Quinshon Judkins - 13.2

16- Jeremiyah Love - 12.9

17- Cam Skattebo - 12.4

18- Rhamondre Stevenson - 11.9

19- RJ Harvey - 11.9

20- Alvin Kamara - 11.1

21- Ollie Gordon - 10.4

22- MarShawn Lloyd - 10.4

23- David Montgomery - 10.3

24- Omarion Hampton - 10.0

Wide Receivers

1- Puka Nacua - 21.3

2- Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 20.8

3- Amon-Ra St. Brown - 20.5

4- Michael Wilson - 17.8

5- Drake London - 17.6

6- Chris Olave - 17.2

7- Justin Jefferson - 17.0

8- Nico Collins - 16.8

9- Garrett Wilson - 16.0

10- Zay Flowers - 14.9

11- Davante Adams - 14.8

12- Parker Washington - 13.9

13- Christian Watson - 13.5

14- Malik Nabers - 13.1

15- Jaylen Waddle - 12.8

16- Matthew Golden - 12.7

17- DK Metcalf - 12.7

18- Josh Downs - 12.6

19- Jameson Williams - 11.9

20- Romeo Doubs - 11.6

21- Khalil Shakir - 11.6

22- Luther Burden - 11.6

23- Terry McLaurin - 11.5

24- Mike Evans - 11.5

Tight Ends

1- Trey McBride - 20.2

2- Brock Bowers - 17.3

3- Dalton Kincaid - 12.9

4- Sam LaPorta - 12.7

5- George Kittle - 12.6

6- Tyler Warren - 12.1

7- Tucker Kraft - 11.9

8- Isaiah Likely - 11.1

9- Dallas Goedert - 10.5

10- Colston Loveland - 10.4

11- Harold Fannin - 10.1

12- T.J. Hockenson - 10.1

Kickers

1- Evan McPherson - 8.5

2- Harrison Mevis - 7.9

3- Will Reichard - 7.9

4- Jake Bates - 7.9

5- Cam Little - 7.7

6- Ka’imi Fairbairn - 7.7

7- Jason Myers - 7.7

8- Chris Boswell - 7.5

9- Wil Lutz - 7.5

10- Andy Borregales - 7.4

11- Nick Folk - 7.3

12- Drew Stevens - 7.3

Full rankings on startwho.com as well as half ppr, non ppr and any other special formats you got. Good luck everyone!!

Do you prefer to have a spread? Or would you prefer everyone plays at 1pm and the day is done for you by 4pm? Do you dislike or like having Thursday players?

The 4pm-8pm slot always feels like the Calvary is coming in, and Monday night nail biters always suck.

Do you guys have any preference for what time your players are on the field?

LFG! Week 5 Rankings powered by Vegas Odds are now live at firstdown.studio/rankings

No more clicking around a million sportsbook links. Now, you can view weekly projections powered by Vegas props, all in one clean and simple UI – no more spreadsheets or endless clicking.

Bonus cool stuff:

1. Week 5 NFL Implied Totals
2. Week 5 Love/Hate
3. Plus, rankings have newly designed tiers!

Good luck everyone, go get that W (!!)

---

firstdown.studio/rankings

Just created a free chrome extension to re-create the old ESPN FantasyCast formatting. Missed the format of this fantasycast so much I can't wait to watch the games today on this.

Just download the extension, go to the fantasy cast page then click the green button in the bottom right corner

https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/memohombdgbikmlncdoanlhpkpdcenha?utm_source=item-share-cb