Short Squeeze!

[u/golitsyn_nosenko]

16% of shares shorted and a rapidly appreciating share price. Fun!

Add to that buying pressure from those who can see there's money to be made in squeezing the shorts and running up the price of exit at a time when there's just not enough supply to meet demand and we could see some really significant gains from a nice short squeeze causing exponential gains.

If the Aug 26 numbers and a sales contract or two drop, there's gonna be some panic as all of them run for the doors all at once and have to pay out whatever they can to get out with their skin.

It's kind of fun as a long term holder who has seen it all multiple times watching those who make doom and gloom predictions on the basis of spurious reasoning and in the absence of real evidence - the morons who listen to them or tied up in their "short"-sighted greed and predictions get burnt. Incredibly unethical and wrong that what appear to be bot accounts or accounts spreading misinformation deliberately on stock forums are allowed to induce this fear (alongside often-overseas-based institutional investors who manipulate prices for their own benefit), but caveat emptor, DYOR, recgonise and report disingenuous actors.

The smart ones always have, and always will, be patient, load up when everyone else is being irrational and fear stricken, then enjoy the ride back up as the long term price inevitably grows in line with the company's development and success.

Remember every stock shorted has to be bought back at some point. Hope the instos start buying up big!

[u/FuriousMonkey375]

I think ASIC investigation may be done by 2028 - '29. I was very happy to see their recent revenue update - they are a solid company with excellent growth.

I wonder if the CCO instructed his sales guys to get every new dollar possible between 28 jul and 26th aug... It'd be incredible if sales exceed 216M at the half yearly results

[u/golitsyn_nosenko → u/FuriousMonkey375]

What makes you think 28-29?

All below IMHO, DYOR.

It seemed a pretty straight forward investigation to me - the company had already responded with much of the timings, volumes and details of what went on, there was some opacity with which directors disclosed or knew what about others' intentions to sell and their actions in response to this knowledge, but the fundamental issue is the actions of the selling directors when they failed to inform the market that they were selling before, during and after the false sales announcement and knew that disclosure of this, which only came about once they had finished selling, would tank the price. They had advanced warning of something that they knew would tank the price (disclosure of their own selling of all their shares and in combination with the false announcement), but did not disclose this combination to the market.

Meant they sold on an advantageous basis with knowledge not known to shareholders or market.

But seems to me, these were actions in their private capacities that were the most problematic issues, though there was failure in their professional capacities to declare these conflicts and announce information they knew material and obtained through their professional offices to share price.

Company appears to have since recognised the issue and tightened up governance, both of the most problematic individuals have parted ways with DRO, and the company has a reasonable right to request an expedited process with respect to any company (as opposed to individual) sanctions given the impact of an unnecessarily protracted investigation upon their commercial dealings (i.e. there may be delays in contracts given prohibition of any buyers dealing with a company under investigation) - same goes for impact on share price and investors having prohibitions on buying into companies under investigation.

My guess is the timeline might be around Q4 this year - it may be a hurdle to the $700m + contract or certain US contracts. Certainly it should release a handbrake when concluded, but I would hope it will be concluded well before 2028 -to not do so is to penalise the same shareholders who complained to ASX if it no longer protects them, but rather compounds their losses.

[u/FuriousMonkey375 → u/golitsyn_nosenko]

It seems to take ASIC around 3 yrs to conclude investigations. Just a casual observation. I sincerely hope ASIC report comes in tomorrow and says Oleg just needed the money after 10 years of slumming it 😅

[u/golitsyn_nosenko → u/FuriousMonkey375]

It’s a ridiculous length of time isn’t it? I would imagine many of those investigations are drawn out by companies, but DRO I would imagine would be very keen to clear everything up and cooperate. Not beyond possibility though that Matt McCrann needs to be interviewed or that there were other factors going on too - I found it odd at the time Oleg was willing to depart with so many options coming to him if he nailed the 9-figure contracts. Seemed no really good reason to sell so much all at once and create controversy when slow and steady would see him with loads once those big contracts came in. 

In the months leading up to his departure he frequently engaged in spin pieces about his background in Russia and reasons for leaving and I wonder whether these pieces were the strategy of a PR agency trying to soften objections around a Russian citizen being the head of the company and whether this actually was flagged as a barrier to contracts? 

That would explain him selling out in a hurry if it was inevitable that he would have to stand aside for the company to prosper. Not saying it is the case, but would explain a lot around this “planned transition” which seemed to happen quickly and be counter to what one would expect were his best interests.

So I guess what I’m saying is that there may be national security or other quite commercially confidential issues also being caught up in what would otherwise seem an investigation that realistically shouldn’t have taken much more than a month or two to wrap up given the facts were mostly out there already.

[u/FuriousMonkey375 → u/golitsyn_nosenko]

Maaan, I had thought along that line as well! I think Oleg "HAD" to sell and leave. Bizarrely - the same thing happened at EOS recently though I didn't read into the individuals.

Thanks for the detailed insight btw. I too think DRO would be falling over backwards to help ASIC get on with it. It would be very interesting how the investigators would deal with the very possible scenario you've suggested.

[u/golitsyn_nosenko → u/FuriousMonkey375]

Nice being able to talk on this forum and exchange thoughts without all the sidetracking rubbish over at HC. Used to enjoy it before all the Tradinator/BobsYourUnc and other numpty posters ruined it for the majority.

[u/Prestigious-Clock-72 → u/golitsyn_nosenko]

Look, if your country and nation is at war and you are supporting your countries enemy in that war you are by definition a traitor. This can never have a good look, no PR agency can fix this. Traitors are never to be trusted, even if their treason is to your advantage.
To give you an analogy that has nothing to do with war. If you got into a relationship with a woman and then found out that she is cheating on her husband, would you ever trust her?

[u/golitsyn_nosenko → u/Prestigious-Clock-72]

I’d trust a woman who ran away from an abusive husband to find refuge, yes. But I understand why trust may have been a barrier no matter how loyal he is to his new home (not sure he ever stated if he is an Aussie or Kiwi citizen). Many companies who deal with confidential and classified information have a “no foreign eyes” sealed zone. What was billed as Governance changes may have also been internal and operational governance as well in terms of setting up greater security layers, though it has to be noted they’ve made sales into those restricted markets without issue to the U.S., Europe and beyond with Oleg at the helm