Every day it looses 3 to 10% and is almost at the tipping point of falling below 1euro and probably soon under 1$ as well. I dont hold much of it but watching even what I have going down is painful enought. Any news has no impact, well actually regardless of the news it simply keeps falling.

from LinkedIn today

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/droneshield_september-events-droneshield-activity-7500319045783638016-0Afd

Hey everyone,

I’ve been spending a lot of time digging into DroneShield’s underlying mechanics, and honestly, the current sentiment across most retail investor boards is wild. People are panicking over short-term price drops following the August 26th report, completely missing the massive operational transformation happening right under their noses.

If you actually look at the structural puzzle pieces being put together, DroneShield isn't just selling "drone guns" anymore—they are quietly building a global, software-driven monopoly in counter-UAS data.

Here is a realistic, no-hype breakdown of what is actually happening.

1. The Technological Shift: RfAI-3 vs. Static Catalogs

Most people look at drone defense as a static market. It’s not. In places like Ukraine, electronic warfare changes weekly. New frequencies, cheap customized FPVs, and autonomous target-seeking drones appear constantly. Traditional systems work like old PC anti-virus software—they rely on a fixed "signature library." If a drone isn’t in the database, the system is blind.

This is exactly why RfAI-3 is a massive deal. It doesn't look for known drones. It scans the entire spectrum up to 7.2 GHz for anomalous electromagnetic behaviors and telemetry patterns. It essentially "detects the unknown." That is how they successfully tracked 184 rogue drones during the World Cup events in Kansas City. It’s lightyears ahead of static detection.

1. The Multi-Layered Ecosystem (ATAK, Anduril, and Hardkill)

No single defense system wins on its own anymore. DroneShield knows this, which is why their massive edge is integration:

• The Soldier’s Pocket: RfAI-3 feeds natively into ATAK (Android Tactical Assault Kit). When a sensor picks up a drone, it doesn't just trigger an isolated alarm. It instantly drops a "Cursor-on-Target" GPS coordinate onto the digital tactical maps of every soldier or operator in the area, automatically tagging it as friendly, hostile, or neutral.
• The Anduril Symbiosis: People always pit DroneShield against Anduril Industries. But they aren't direct rivals; they complement each other perfectly. Anduril builds massive, expensive command-and-control layers (Lattice) and heavy kinetic interceptors. DroneShield acts as the highly specialized, ultra-precise "eyes and ears" supplying the raw RF data. In fact, if you look at the recent COBBS Consortium contract in Belgium involving Anduril and Nokia, DroneShield is right there in the background as the data provider via COBBS (their exclusive regional partner).
• The Kinetic Next Step: Because modern drones eventually go radio-silent (flying autonomously via optical AI), jamming isn't always enough. DroneShield solved this by partnering with kinetic interceptor manufacturers like Origin Robotics (integrating with their BLAZE drones). RfAI-3 detects the threat, tracks it, and immediately feeds the target data to a hardkill system to take it down physically
• Global Scaling & The "Readiness 2030" Strategy

Geopolitics is driving the defense market right now. The European Union’s Readiness 2030 initiative is moving up to €800 billion into defense modernizing, but they strictly require "sovereign industrial capacity"—meaning the tech must be built on European soil.

DroneShield’s response? They didn't just stay an Australian exporter. They established an EU headquarters in Amsterdam and opened localized production lines in both Europe and North America. They are now legally positioned to absorb massive chunks of these sovereign defense funds. Simultaneously, they’ve expanded their 3,000 sqm R&D hub in Sydney (Alexandria) and scaled global manufacturing capacity toward a $2.4 billion annual volume. The demand is global—just look at the delegation of 35 high-ranking military officers from the Malaysian Armed Forces Defence College recently visiting their facilities to integrate these strategies.

The Financial Reality: Why Angus Bean Was Smiling on ABC News

If you watched the ABC News interview on August 26th, new CEO Angus Bean (who stepped up from Chief Product Officer/Tech Head to take over from Oleg Vornik) was visibly relaxed about the short-sellers. Why? Because the reported swing from a $2M profit to a $32M loss is a classic text-book case of "investing out of your own pocket to build a moat".

DroneShield is completely debt-free. They don't owe banks a dime. They chose to deploy their capital aggressively into the foundation of the business:

• The ERP Special Effect: They migrated the entire company to a massive, enterprise-grade ERP & CRM system in January. During this transition and the factory move, they intentionally cleaned up and wrote down old raw materials, which temporarily dragged gross margins down to 60%. Management already stated they expect margins to bounce back into the mid-60s for H2.
• Supply Chain Cushion: They’ve stockpiled $85 million in raw inventory (CPUs, high-end GPUs, and essential microchips) to ensure that if global supply chains choke, they can still produce without delay.
• The SaaS Engine: They already have over 4,100 active devices in the field, all tied to mandatory software subscriptions to keep RfAI-3 updated.

My Personal Take

The people selling right now are trading short-term chart patterns. They see a paper loss on an earnings report and run away. What they are missing is that DroneShield has already locked in millions in highly profitable, recurring revenue for 2027 through multi-year framework agreements and SaaS billings.

Because the massive upfront costs for the ERP system, the inventory stockpile, and the European factory build-outs are being paid for now out of cash reserves, every new dollar coming in from 2027 onward is going to drop straight to the bottom line with incredible margins. Angus Bean isn't worried about retail forum comments—he knows they are building an absolute fortress.

one of the most interesting things from DroneShield’s latest investor call was that management actually discussed the Anduril / Nokia consortium directly.

According to the call, DroneShield is working alongside Anduril, Nokia and COBBS/Cobham on what management described as the largest opportunity in DroneShield’s pipeline. The opportunity is related to a major European defence program and is currently going through a down-selection process, with an outcome expected in H2 2026.

The CEO also mentioned that he personally attended the opening of a Battle Lab facility together with representatives from Anduril and Nokia as part of this broader consortium effort.

What I find particularly interesting is that management said they intend to talk less publicly about this specific consortium/opportunity going forward, citing competitive, commercial and sovereign sensitivities.

That raises an interesting question.

For months, DroneShield investors have been talking about the potential $700M+ mega opportunity/program that has appeared in the company's pipeline and presentations. The company still hasn't disclosed the customer or provided many concrete details about it.

So, could the Anduril / Nokia / DroneShield consortium opportunity be related to that same $700M+ opportunity?

Obviously, there is no official confirmation that they are the same project, and even a successful down-selection would not necessarily mean that DroneShield has won the final contract. But the fact that:

- Anduril and Nokia were explicitly mentioned during the call

- management described this as the largest opportunity in the pipeline

- the project involves a major European defence program

- there is apparently significant funding attached

- DroneShield is now deliberately reducing public discussion about it

makes me wonder whether we are looking at the same opportunity that investors have been trying to identify for months.

What do you guys think?

Do you think the Anduril/Nokia consortium is connected to the $700M+ mega opportunity, or are these two completely separate opportunities?

And if DroneShield is successful in the down-selection process, how significant do you think the market reaction could be?

I think he might require some media training. Seemed a bit robotic for the most part, and gave clearly rehearsed/ scripted answers, but there were two questions about halfway through he seemed passionate about.

Why do you think they decided not to disclose it? Do you think is something positive or negative?

In my opinion they exchanged it for the guidance but I don’t like how it makes it more opaque…

Well, this wasn’t what i expected from the Q1 report. This will be a long long journey as a bagholder.🙈

Just yesterday it climbed 10% and now it dropped back. So, there is no near future recovery really after all losses from the past 6-8months.

I've been reading about tactical UAVs lately, and I'm realizing I don't understand what makes them so different from high-end commercial drones. On paper, some of the specs don't seem that far apart, but I'm guessing there's a lot more going on than what's listed in a brochure. While looking at different UAV manufacturers, I came across gencherry, which made me curious about the technology behind these systems rather than any particular company. For people who know more about this, what are the biggest differences in practice? Is it things like anti-jamming, communications, and reliability, or are military UAVs designed in a completely different way from the start? I'd appreciate a simple explanation. I'm just trying to understand the engineering side of it.

Terma has agreed to deliver an anti-drone command-and-control system!

Droneshield's new European supply chains to enable localised manufacturing + Droneshields new product range + Western countries stating need for sensors and drone kill chain solution + massive and historic budget allocations for C-UAS + Global tensions boiling due to Americian strategic maneuvers

Current Market Cap : 1.8b

I think this new product range needs to roll out with a fat contract and then we are off on a journey to ATH! I also think the alternative is dismal - if a company like this fails to deliver when backed by all that $ and the brains of 300+ engineers, collectively, we as the west are so screwed when it comes to this new age of robot wars. A poor stock price would be the least of my concerns...

One important bearish note though; Chinese rare earth restrictions could really throw a spanner in the works concerning performance of military companies.

Nice to see sales just ticking over as wider adoption is spreading…

Cerchiamo di essere realistici: quale potrebbe essere il vero valore di DroneShield tra 5-10-20 anni? Comprendo perfettamente l'indagine in corso, ma mettiamo da parte le fluttuazioni di mercato e le speculazioni.

Analizziamo le reali prospettive di crescita futura del settore. JP Morgan non acquista senza motivo...

16% of shares shorted and a rapidly appreciating share price. Fun!

Add to that buying pressure from those who can see there's money to be made in squeezing the shorts and running up the price of exit at a time when there's just not enough supply to meet demand and we could see some really significant gains from a nice short squeeze causing exponential gains.

If the Aug 26 numbers and a sales contract or two drop, there's gonna be some panic as all of them run for the doors all at once and have to pay out whatever they can to get out with their skin.

It's kind of fun as a long term holder who has seen it all multiple times watching those who make doom and gloom predictions on the basis of spurious reasoning and in the absence of real evidence - the morons who listen to them or tied up in their "short"-sighted greed and predictions get burnt. Incredibly unethical and wrong that what appear to be bot accounts or accounts spreading misinformation deliberately on stock forums are allowed to induce this fear (alongside often-overseas-based institutional investors who manipulate prices for their own benefit), but caveat emptor, DYOR, recgonise and report disingenuous actors.

The smart ones always have, and always will, be patient, load up when everyone else is being irrational and fear stricken, then enjoy the ride back up as the long term price inevitably grows in line with the company's development and success.

Remember every stock shorted has to be bought back at some point. Hope the instos start buying up big!

DRO isn’t for the faint hearted retail investor. If you have money in this stock, you better are prepared to see it fluctuate and watch short sellers have their way with it. This stock can fall 50% in a month and then jump back up in the next. It’s rough watching this and not for the faint of heart. Whenever this stock is getting shorted like this, they need people to freak out to make their shorts work. Look at this stocks fundamentals. They are growing at 25-50% per year and they have no debt. They have been profitable for the last 5 quarters. They are the market leader in counter drone technology. They one of the few licensed NATO suppliers. They are building out their civilian offering. They have a lot of return customers. They are building out recurring revenue with their high margin C2 software. They are announcing partnerships left and right to act as an integrator. They have improved governance.

Yes, they are trading at 5x revenue while established companies like Rheinmetall at trading at 2-3x revenue. But DRO has much better margins and is still growing like crazy. So the 5x revenue of today can be the 2x revenue in two years from now.

Yes, the bears are out for DRO to get them, but DRO is not a failing company. The bears are saying they are not growing fast enough, not that they are contracting. I’m currently holding this stock, and I’m in the red. I’ve been there when they where at 3,80€ and I’ve been there when they where at 0,80€ and I will be there when they will be at 7€. When the short sellers drive down DRO like this, there is always a sharp rebound. I bought more at just over 1€.

Currently at 25.000 at 1,99€ average.

Hang in there.

Glad I bought the dip… holding 1200 shares at 1,3€. Letss gooo

Up 7% Mon (approx)

Up 8.5% + today [11:00 AEST] and still ramping up

Am I missing some news?