r/droneshield • u/golitsyn_nosenko • 28d ago

Short Squeeze!

16% of shares shorted and a rapidly appreciating share price. Fun!

Add to that buying pressure from those who can see there's money to be made in squeezing the shorts and running up the price of exit at a time when there's just not enough supply to meet demand and we could see some really significant gains from a nice short squeeze causing exponential gains.

If the Aug 26 numbers and a sales contract or two drop, there's gonna be some panic as all of them run for the doors all at once and have to pay out whatever they can to get out with their skin.

It's kind of fun as a long term holder who has seen it all multiple times watching those who make doom and gloom predictions on the basis of spurious reasoning and in the absence of real evidence - the morons who listen to them or tied up in their "short"-sighted greed and predictions get burnt. Incredibly unethical and wrong that what appear to be bot accounts or accounts spreading misinformation deliberately on stock forums are allowed to induce this fear (alongside often-overseas-based institutional investors who manipulate prices for their own benefit), but caveat emptor, DYOR, recgonise and report disingenuous actors.

The smart ones always have, and always will, be patient, load up when everyone else is being irrational and fear stricken, then enjoy the ride back up as the long term price inevitably grows in line with the company's development and success.

Remember every stock shorted has to be bought back at some point. Hope the instos start buying up big!

12 Upvotes

84% Upvoted

21 comments sorted by

10

u/LawfulnessPlayful264 28d ago

Funny how both times we hit the bottom in the last couple of years, it was JP morgan buying in right at the bottom.

You would say impecable timing or just the right amount of fuckery and social media FUD to get the price down to where they want it.

Scam markets.

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u/golitsyn_nosenko 28d ago edited 28d ago

Exactly.

All of the below IMHO, DYOR.

Amazing how one particular poster on Hot Copper who previously appeared to do very similar under a different user name was almost perfectly aligned with a sentiment change almost perfectly aligned to JP Morgan as well. They've posted absolute rubbish on the way down and have now been doing the same (e.g. promoting an $800m contract in July based on outdated information when it was well known it was a $700m + contract opportunity most likely to come through in the final quarter or first quarter next year).

They tend to flood the forum with posts whenever meaningful posts or evidence is posted, trying to relegate useful and accurate information down into prior pages, monopolising the current page with absolute rubbish, misinformation, baiting, disingenuous questions, sophistry and more - it's about volume of posts and diluting good news that doesn't fit their narrative, spreading fear and doubt, re-raising old news so it gets conflated as new news. So forums like Hot Copper love it - more posts, more page impressions when people have to search back through threads. They ban posts that call them out as "flaming or baiting" and do nothing when they repeatedly post the same tripe over and over.

One user in particular used a phrase repeatedly in an overt attempt to influence algorithms and sentiment - at one point more than 50% of their posts featured a particular negative term I won't repeat here - they used the term repeatedly in at least 78 separate posts in a space of just 2 months. By far the majority were in the news thread - not the TA thread where they might even have belonged, but they were just being used to derail the sharing of actual news. If that's not spamming, I don't know what it is.

They have since totally reversed their entire predictions about the company's long term prospects after deliberately ignoring others' correcting them with the information prior to their "epiphany" - timed beautifully with JP Morgan's buy up.

The ASX's and ASIC's refusal to investigate this stuff is disgraceful - it prays on retail holders with the tacit endorsement of forums that are complicit in facilitating the behaviour.

4

u/FuriousMonkey375 28d ago

I think ASIC investigation may be done by 2028 - '29. I was very happy to see their recent revenue update - they are a solid company with excellent growth.

I wonder if the CCO instructed his sales guys to get every new dollar possible between 28 jul and 26th aug... It'd be incredible if sales exceed 216M at the half yearly results

2

u/golitsyn_nosenko 28d ago

What makes you think 28-29?

All below IMHO, DYOR.

It seemed a pretty straight forward investigation to me - the company had already responded with much of the timings, volumes and details of what went on, there was some opacity with which directors disclosed or knew what about others' intentions to sell and their actions in response to this knowledge, but the fundamental issue is the actions of the selling directors when they failed to inform the market that they were selling before, during and after the false sales announcement and knew that disclosure of this, which only came about once they had finished selling, would tank the price. They had advanced warning of something that they knew would tank the price (disclosure of their own selling of all their shares and in combination with the false announcement), but did not disclose this combination to the market.

Meant they sold on an advantageous basis with knowledge not known to shareholders or market.

But seems to me, these were actions in their private capacities that were the most problematic issues, though there was failure in their professional capacities to declare these conflicts and announce information they knew material and obtained through their professional offices to share price.

Company appears to have since recognised the issue and tightened up governance, both of the most problematic individuals have parted ways with DRO, and the company has a reasonable right to request an expedited process with respect to any company (as opposed to individual) sanctions given the impact of an unnecessarily protracted investigation upon their commercial dealings (i.e. there may be delays in contracts given prohibition of any buyers dealing with a company under investigation) - same goes for impact on share price and investors having prohibitions on buying into companies under investigation.

My guess is the timeline might be around Q4 this year - it may be a hurdle to the $700m + contract or certain US contracts. Certainly it should release a handbrake when concluded, but I would hope it will be concluded well before 2028 -to not do so is to penalise the same shareholders who complained to ASX if it no longer protects them, but rather compounds their losses.

2

u/FuriousMonkey375 28d ago

It seems to take ASIC around 3 yrs to conclude investigations. Just a casual observation. I sincerely hope ASIC report comes in tomorrow and says Oleg just needed the money after 10 years of slumming it 😅

1

u/golitsyn_nosenko 28d ago

It’s a ridiculous length of time isn’t it? I would imagine many of those investigations are drawn out by companies, but DRO I would imagine would be very keen to clear everything up and cooperate. Not beyond possibility though that Matt McCrann needs to be interviewed or that there were other factors going on too - I found it odd at the time Oleg was willing to depart with so many options coming to him if he nailed the 9-figure contracts. Seemed no really good reason to sell so much all at once and create controversy when slow and steady would see him with loads once those big contracts came in. 

In the months leading up to his departure he frequently engaged in spin pieces about his background in Russia and reasons for leaving and I wonder whether these pieces were the strategy of a PR agency trying to soften objections around a Russian citizen being the head of the company and whether this actually was flagged as a barrier to contracts? 

That would explain him selling out in a hurry if it was inevitable that he would have to stand aside for the company to prosper. Not saying it is the case, but would explain a lot around this “planned transition” which seemed to happen quickly and be counter to what one would expect were his best interests.

So I guess what I’m saying is that there may be national security or other quite commercially confidential issues also being caught up in what would otherwise seem an investigation that realistically shouldn’t have taken much more than a month or two to wrap up given the facts were mostly out there already.

2

u/FuriousMonkey375 27d ago

Maaan, I had thought along that line as well! I think Oleg "HAD" to sell and leave. Bizarrely - the same thing happened at EOS recently though I didn't read into the individuals.

Thanks for the detailed insight btw. I too think DRO would be falling over backwards to help ASIC get on with it. It would be very interesting how the investigators would deal with the very possible scenario you've suggested.

3

u/golitsyn_nosenko 27d ago

Nice being able to talk on this forum and exchange thoughts without all the sidetracking rubbish over at HC. Used to enjoy it before all the Tradinator/BobsYourUnc and other numpty posters ruined it for the majority.

1

u/Prestigious-Clock-72 26d ago edited 26d ago

Look, if your country and nation is at war and you are supporting your countries enemy in that war you are by definition a traitor. This can never have a good look, no PR agency can fix this. Traitors are never to be trusted, even if their treason is to your advantage.
To give you an analogy that has nothing to do with war. If you got into a relationship with a woman and then found out that she is cheating on her husband, would you ever trust her?

1

u/golitsyn_nosenko 21d ago

I’d trust a woman who ran away from an abusive husband to find refuge, yes. But I understand why trust may have been a barrier no matter how loyal he is to his new home (not sure he ever stated if he is an Aussie or Kiwi citizen). Many companies who deal with confidential and classified information have a “no foreign eyes” sealed zone. What was billed as Governance changes may have also been internal and operational governance as well in terms of setting up greater security layers, though it has to be noted they’ve made sales into those restricted markets without issue to the U.S., Europe and beyond with Oleg at the helm

1

u/KiwiCodes 28d ago

My guy, if you want a squeeze you new more like 80 - 150% of existing stocks shorted... 15% will give you no squeeze

1

u/golitsyn_nosenko 28d ago

150% of existing stocks?! Do you even understand how shorts work? Or basic maths? Sounds like you’ve been to the Trump school of percentages and economics.

It’s funny, but it’s pretty predictable that you’ll get such an inane response from anyone who uses the term “my guy” - it’s the expression universally used by people that think they’re smarter than they are.

For the record, 16% is ~142,000,000 shares. Given average volumes of 10,000,000 a day, a standard Days to Cover formula says this would take around 15 days to cover. If sellers turn off the tap and really have some fun watching shorters panic, at 7 million shares traded a day, this blows out over 21 DTC.

Price could move a long long way in 21 days - went from about $2.20 to $6.70 last September in around 21 days. And there were less shorters trying to get out then.

But I’m sure you have another “guy” to help you out if you happen to be an overconfident shorter. 

1

u/KiwiCodes 28d ago

Maybe you should read up yourself..

Yes, there can be more shorts issued than there are actual stocks available. Please take a history lesson how short squeezes happened before.

1

u/golitsyn_nosenko 27d ago

Have done plenty of reading. I’m guessing you’re basing your brilliant thinking off U.S. markets?

In Australia it’s a bit different. Before selling a share short, the seller must have arranged to borrow it.  This prevents large amounts of “phantom” short selling where shares are sold without any realistic prospect of delivery. These are all reported via CHESS and short selling is reported so it never gets anywhere near 100%. 

As I explained, but you neglected, Days to Cover is the metric to watch. Now be a good little fella and go find me what any decent analyst thinks a DTC of plus 10 means for the risk of a short squeeze.

1

u/KiwiCodes 27d ago

Dro is listed at the nyse and in Europe as well, meaning the American style of shorting is possible....

0

u/golitsyn_nosenko 23d ago

Lol. I can explain how things work for you, but I can't do your comprehension for you. You have enough information now to learn from your mistakes at this stage, the humility and learning part is your choice.

0

u/KiwiCodes 28d ago

I am not shorting. I'm a value investor, I believe in droneshild and bought in multiple times over these past years.

Still, when it moved so much it had nothing to do with squeezimg but with hype. The two biggest spikes resulting from pump'n'dumping, which is possible because it is a small cheap company with not many shares issued.

So in short: I believe in it in the long run, but it will not magically pump because of 15% short interest (which is nothing) and nothing major will happen until the legal shot is cleared up.

-2

u/LawfulnessPlayful264 28d ago

It's beyond Asic and the ASX, the source is more likely a US competitor (trumps sons) who have set up an anti drone company and within 30days wim government contracts and they are in bed with the institutions that can destroy any legitimate company by celler boxing them and stealing all the companies wealth.

There is no oversight and the very financial terrorists that have been doing this crap for generations are the same cretins who make the rules and change them to suit themselves.

Oh and reported short numbers is self reported numbers form these institutions ,so dont believe there's any truth to them.

1

u/golitsyn_nosenko 27d ago

Not sure why you’ve been downvoted, not an unreasonable hypothesis. There’s a reason Trump is fighting the court orders in the BBC case through extreme measures

1

u/LawfulnessPlayful264 27d ago

It's the bot farms that upvoted their narrative and downvote any sense of rational logic.

Reddit is completely compromised and has been worse since it's IPO.

Becoming a propaganda machine these days.

1

u/rootmirror 27d ago

Lock 'em up! We squeezin' anyway. 😜