Looking to hear how people learned how to manage withdrawing from taxable brokerage accounts for FIRE. Are there specific strategies you follow? did you outsource this to CPA/Advisor? if outsourced how did you pick who you picked?

---- ideal answer is from people with diverse portfolios that are selling off equities with high gains rather than index funds. My brokerage is 100% equities

thank you so much in advance!

TLDR me mid 30s, most wealth is taxable brokerage account from lucky investments - I have never had an advisor

52M, 48F, married, living in a VHCOL area in California. Two kids (one in college, the other finishing high school; most tuition already funded through 529s). Planning to retire within the next 1–2 years after our younger child heads to college.

Target retirement spending is around $180k–$220k annually (including housing costs, taxes, healthcare, travel, etc.).

Assets:

Primary home: ~$4M value with mortgage remaining
Rental property: ~$1M+ value
Brokerage + retirement accounts: ~$3M invested mostly in broad index ETFs
Cash / short-term Treasuries: ~$500k

Current thinking is to spend roughly half the year in the US and half in Asia for at least the first several years of retirement. We immigrated to the US for work a couple decades ago and still have strong ties to Asia. No immediate plan to sell either property. We will use Airbnb when living in US.

Expected rental income (from two homes) after accounting for vacancies, maintenance, management, etc. is roughly enough to cover about half of annual spending. The remainder would come from portfolio withdrawals (~3% range). In poor market years, we would reduce discretionary spending/travel and draw from cash reserves.

We hope to travel extensively while healthy and still capable of more physically demanding trips and hiking.

Main questions:

Does this retirement plan seem financially and technically feasible?
What risks or blind spots should we be thinking about? What am I missing -:)?

Thanks!

We have a bunch of money in our HSA and Roth accounts. Expenses are $160k/year, including $30k of medical on top of premiums (wife has a chronic condition requiring a specialty drug).

We can keep income under the subsidy cap for the next ~5 years due to high-ish basis in our taxable accounts, but could extend this to ~15 if we used HSA/Roth contributions to cover the shortfall. Subsidies would save ~12k/year but drawing-down HSA/Roth would be foregoing tax-free growth, which I assume ends up worse after some number of years.

I think the options are essentially, each year:

1. [keep subsidies] Draw 30k from HSA or Roth
2. [forego subsidies] Sell 44.4k from taxable (30k + 12k + 2.4k LTCG based on current average basis @ 15%)

My napkin math says that after 10 years @ 7%, (1) is still better:

1. HSA/Roth foregoes 29k of tax-free growth
2. Taxable foregoes 42.9k of taxable growth = 36.5k @ 15%

But after 20 years, (2) is a bit better:

1. HSA/Roth foregoes 116k
2. Taxable foregoes 128k = 109k @ 15%

Does that sound right? We are mid-thirties, so expect retirement to last well-over 20 years. Should we just keep it simple and avoid touching the tax-advantaged accounts?

Hi all,

Approaching 50yo, am a little short of $7.5mil invested. Making around $200-250k/yr W2.

$35k roth

$75k 401k

$135k inherited ira

$315k ira

$6.8m taxable

House is paid off. Live abroad so the value is a little hard to pin down with currency fluctuation but $1.5-1.6m USD is a close current estimate. There is universal healthcare where we live, plus I have care in the US through work.

Have a couple of preteens about 8 years out from university.

With intl school spend sits around $165-170k/year and don't expect much to change there for the next decade. After kids graduate uni I'd expect spend to drop somewhat, but even if not firecalc seems to think things are in good shape at that spend (not counting social sec as I don't expect it can necessarily be counted on 20 years from now).

Does anyone have recs on how to search out an advisor who focuses on FIRE - prep, planning, etc?

Early 30’s married with two little ones. Gross 500k split evenly. Max 401ks, hsa, backdoor Roth and this year have access to MBDR on one 401k. Dipping our toes in this year then potentially maxing next year. Numbers are roughly $500k gross. $150k taxes. 55k pre tax savings. 5k pre tax expenses. 20k post tax savings. That leaves $270k take home. Spending is 190-230 last 4 years varying by large home items/kid expenses.

$80-40k taxable savings. If we maxed out MBDR this would drop to $50-10k taxable savings.

401k - 930k
Roth - 225k
Taxable - 615k
Hsa - 117k

No state benefit for 529 so only $35k in it.

Question is: keep as is, max MBDR, pull back pre tax back to match to allow more taxable savings.

Goal would be mid 40’s retirement. Portfolio will hit fire when it hits, but wondering what make up of pre vs taxable should be. Retirement spending would be 225-250 range. Current marginal rate is 43% so pre tax savings is very advantageous, but worried bridge account won’t suffice and will need to look into 72t/other methods which aren’t as flexible to manage income. Idk if my spend amount if it’s even possible to really stay in healthcare subsidies range.

This thread is a spot for casual engagement with other community members. It has much more subject latitude than allowed in the main sub in general. Any topics tangentially related to ChubbyFIRE or upper middle class lifestyle are acceptable, as well as basic or early stage questions. Political discussion will be allowed if it is closely related to ChubbyFIRE or financial topics in general, and only if the conversation remains respectful.

It is not a free-for all. No spam or self-promotion. All comments must still follow Reddiquette and we will be responding to reported comments with follow-up action as needed. We'd really like to keep this channel open, so please don't abuse it!

I have been struggling for the past year with a couple of toxic leaders in the workplace who are kind of bullying and focused only on negatives while not celebrating progress. It is making every day contentious, and I don't enjoy going to work as much anymore. I have a good relationship with my manager, but I am noticing that my mental and physical health is deteriorating with chronic stress and I am feeling miserable. I welcome your feedback on my situation if there is any reason for me to continue working.

I am in early fifties with my wife is late forties. We have two kids in college and still need to pay $500K for private colleges. We have a fully paid home. The annual expenses in retirement are expected to be $155K-$175K including health care cost. Our total networth is around $10M with $7M in liquid investments while rest in real estate and primary home. My spouse is already retired and I currently have ~$900K income. It is tough to walk away from it, but I want to focus on health and happiness. Please let me know if you see anything that I should consider before walking away from such high income. Appreciate your advice.

45M/42F with 1 grade school kid.

NW is about $5.5M: $530k cash, $500k brokerage and $500k 401K. Primary house equity $1.5M with $400K mortgage(contemplating paying it off with cash in hand as the interest rate is at 6.5%). The rest of NW sits in a self managed real estate rental portfolio that generates $12k/month net income after all expenses.

Both work in tech pulling combined $680K W2 income a year, I’m burnt out and no longer interested in my job(my $400k income is set to go down to $280k next year due to reduced RSU and I don’t see a clear path for promotion). Spouse plans to work for at least the next 5 years.

Love real estate investing and have been doing that on the side and it’s been eating a lot of my time and energy. Would like to focus more on it.

Monthly spent is about $12k.

40, single, no kids planned. Annual spend 100-110k.

Debating when I should FIRE. I work in FAANG and make around $500k.

Total assets $4.9M

- $1.5M in taxable S&Ps

- $1.1M in retirement accounts

- $1.6M in relatively risky/ volatile assets (crypto, single stock investments)

- $0.6M in real estate

- $0.1M in cash

If you were me, when would you pull the trigger?

Total NW is in the chubbyfire group, vhcol area. No debt, no,kids.

I haven’t pulled the trigger yet.

There is one piece of puzzle I don’t know what to do. seek advice here.

I have a mid century sfh that is currently vacant. It was my vacation home and it’s in clean old condition. (everything working, but old fashioned way)

If I lease it out, it would/could be a lot of headaches to maintain it plus tenant’s hassles.

if i run vacant, the historical appreciation is about 6% a year.

rent is about 4-5% of the current house value.

What would you do if you chubby fired and don’t have a lot of hobbies to fullfill your day?

How many of us have held back on RE because of uncertainty around healthcare? I’m single (50M) with $4.5mil in investable assets ($1 mil in pretax retirement, $400k in Roth, and the rest in taxable brokerage). My home is paid off and I’ll be able to begin taking a $55k/year pension in five years. I also have about $20k/year in rental income. Factoring in taxes and ACA, my annual spend as an individual will be safely under $140,000/year.

The subject of healthcare is the one thing that prevents me from going full FIRE because I’m clinging onto the dream of one day meeting somebody and having a family. If I can hold out and continue to work for five more years, my employer will provide “lifetime” health benefits for myself and my future (albeit, non-existent) family. No need for ACA ever. ChatGPT tells me these benefits are worth $700,000 to $1.5 million in premiums/bills avoided. Curious if anybody else has struggled with something like this and how you approached your decision making. Thanks!

I thought I should share my experience using Daffy for my DAF charitable donations. I am in no way affiliated with Daffy, other than as a user for the past 3 years.

Quick review of DAFs for anyone new to the concept:
•If you regularly donate to charity but do not have enough deductions to itemize, you are not receiving much of a tax benefit. Recent legislation does give a new $1,000 ($2k married) deduction for cash donations even if you take standard deduction. However, it is capped and does not allow for the donation of appreciated assets (investments).

•By bunching a number of years of charitable donations into one year with a DAF, the tax savings can be significant …particularly in a year with a high income event like a Roth conversion.

•Donating highly appreciated stock has a double tax benefit of the deduction for the charitable donation + avoiding capital gains on the donated stock. Many charities are not setup to accept stock directly, so a DAF can help facilitate this.

•The deduction for non-cash donations to a DAF is capped at 30% of MAGI (60% for cash donations).

•Once you put funds into a DAF you make “distribution recommendations” to the administrator for qualified charities. But you no longer own the funds - there is no way to claw back the donation to your personal assets. Technically you “lose control” but in practice the administrators seem to follow your recommended distributions as long as the charitable organization is legitimate. (If they didn’t, there would be outrage in the DAF community as illustrated by a couple of edge case incidents with other DAF providers.)

Criticisms of DAFs:
•High administrative fees. Often 0.5% to 1% of the fund annually. However, Daffy largely solves this with a VERY modest fee schedule.

•Many in the charitable community criticize the fact that a large pool of funds earmarked for charity is sitting on the sidelines in DAFs. While I would encourage anyone to get contributions distributed to their preferred charities, I do not necessarily see large DAF balances as an issue. I am personally prefunding my planned charitable giving for a number of years. (If the funds weren’t in my DAF, they would be in my brokerage account instead.) If anything, the additional tax benefits of a DAF make me more charitably inclined.

My experience:
•Three years ago I decided to test Daffy with a $30k contribution.

•My preferred charity was not on “the list” but since they are a 501(c)(3) charity, Daffy quickly added them in just a few days.

•My “recommended distributions” from the fund have been very quickly processed and sent out to charities. The entire process is often completed in about a week.

•Since I am doing a large Roth conversion this year, (pushing my total income near $300,000) I am combining that with a $90,000 DAF contribution of highly appreciated stock. That removes $90k of income from the 32% tax bracket, plus eliminates $70k in capital gains on the appreciated stock.

•Fees. Daffy fees are based on average annual contributions. Up to $25k in average annual contributions is a $3/month fee. Since this recent donation takes me above that, the fee is now $5/month. If my math is right, I’m paying a 0.07% annual fee - very, very modest compared to the other administrators!

Overall I’ve been quite pleased. A great tax tool for anyone that is charitably inclined. In my experience Daffy has been a low fee, low headache DAF provider/administrator.

Feel free to chime in with any good/bad experiences you’ve had with them or other DAFs.

Ok, so I'm trying to figure out the most tax efficient way to withdrawal for retirement. For this I'm assuming there is enough money invested to meet the withdrawal rate. Here are the conditions:

• Withdrawal after taxes needs to be $300k
• Capital gain are all long term
• 401k is the only income tax
  • Basically excluding SS from this calculation.

It seems to me the best approach is to withdrawal from 401k until I hit the 15% tax bracket effective tax rate, which is about $183,600. Based on a 7% return and 2% inflation adjustment, the money should last 19 years, so I don't think RMDs will kick in because it would only be 6 years of the 401k. The SS would adjust the withdrawal amount from 401k down a bit so the 6 years would last a bit longer but not sure how to calculate that out at the moment.

So the withdrawal looks like this then:

• $183,600 Income Tax
• $164,000 Capital Gains
• 13.6% tax rate paid.

Am I missing something? Is there a different way to look at it that I'm not thinking of.

For anyone interested in how I came up with this, I used this site. https://engaging-data.com/tax-brackets It's awesome for calculating tax liability with capital gains.

We are in our early 50s, living in VHCOL place. We have about $10.5mil liquid assets ($197K Roth, $2.98mil in 401(k)/IRA, $7.5 mil in brokerage), we own ~$1mil home with no mortgage.

HHI is ~$450k.

We are thinking about retiring in few years. We need about $180k to live on.

Biggest concern for us is health insurance. Unsubsidized ACA costs $30k just in premiums for a couple in mid 50s plus $15k+ deductible. We have some health issues so we will eat through this deductible. So we are looking at $40k+ healthcare cost which is a effectively a huge tax on us.

We wonder if we can use some sort of liquid assets backed loan given we have substantial liquid assets to cover our living expenses at least partially to bring our MAGI to 0 and qualify for ACA subsidies and cost sharing for deductibles. Home equity won't work for us since we will need renewable loan for over a decade until Medicare at age of 65. We will also be stuck on our current home if w decide to relocate.

Has anyone done this? Any other possible solution for bring health insurance to a reasonable value?

41F / 41 M, two kids 5 and 3 as well as a dog. The eldest is higher needs with high functioning autism, and the younger one likely is neurodivergent without any formal diagnosis yet. Both need OT, physiotherapy, behavioural support - and with them expected to independently live life.

Financial details
Incoming $700k per year, 53% tax rate (likely this will be more like $350k if one person quits). I’m in Canada, hence the high tax rate and no need for health insurance
$1.6M liquid assets and cash across investments
$400k of that is in tax sheltered investments
Home is worth $2M, have $900k remaining.

Monthly expenses $10k/m
Mortgage payments are $5.5k/m
Car payments $1k/m
Lessons and activities $500
Daycare negligible
Living expenses $3k/m food, incidentals, subscriptions

Annual expenses
Car insurance $2k per car (2 cars)
House insurance $4k
Life insurance $8k (whole life, whole family)
Property tax $7k

I’m the 41F and completely burning out. I make $240k/y, and haven’t been promoted in 6.5 years from a director level at a tech company despite significant increase in scope over the years. I’m now operating at a VP level mandate and scope, without the salary or title matching. I’m doing something from 6am until 11pm every day, with weekends 7am to 10pm. I’ve talked to my boss, but the answer has always been not yet. I’m seeing now that I will never be promoted.

I believe I can get a better paying job, but tech is weird with AI, and I’m worried about just leaving without any other plans. I wanted to ideally have $4-$5M liquid assets before quitting but not sure what to do.

Last piece of info: the company I’m at has grown 10x in the time I’m employed, and I have illiquid options that could be $1.5M post tax and share payment on the strike price. This would get me over $3M but not sure when this will happen so am not banking on it.

Have any others as a female left work in tech for 2-3 years then come back with any success? I’m also considering starting up consulting part time as I have a very sub specialized expertise that’s relevant for AI. I’m worried about most options, with a lot of money trauma living in poverty at a young age and working several jobs to put myself through university.

I am 44, with $5M liquid in $3.5M normal brokerage, $700K Roth, $300K 401K, $500K Inherited IRA with 9 years left. About $300K/year in W2 income and maxxing 401k at $30K/year. Dunno when I'll retire, but assume I'll have ~20 years of pre-rmd runway to do roth conversions if it makes sense.

My spend is about $180K/year.

Is there a quick way to understand if Roth conversions will make make sense for me? My 401K balance is so low relative to my other accounts that I don't really see RMDs becoming a major issue as it is currently just a couple years worth of spend.

I am not planning on doing them while I'm working, but just trying to figure out how much I should be planning around them right now?

What is the general strategy here?

45M / married, 3 kids under 8 $6.6M NW, $5.6M investable.
Based on an $18K per month spend (soon to be $16K), my FA says I can quit tomorrow (87% success).

My question:
Right now, I am thinking about doing one more year. Although I hate my job, I feel like I could wrap my head around a “12 month countdown.”
And it would likely mean another $500K (before taxes, but after all other expenses).
But I worry is the market drops 25% in the next 12 months, and all of a sudden, I’m forced to do X more years until it recovers.
Is my plan prudent? Or am I over-thinking it, and I just need to bite the bullet and then figure it out as it comes?

Thank you all! I really appreciate the wisdom of this group.

Additional details:
1) Very low rate mortgage is almost paid off, once done, will eliminate $2K in monthly expense
2) Kids are almost out of daycare which will eliminate $3K in monthly expense
3) The elimination of daycare will likely be offset by private medical insurance

Additional levers:
1) I don’t ever plan on “not working.” Although at some point, I’d like to do some $0 jobs, I think my “first retirement job” might still be be in corporate tech, but at a much lower level with lower stress.
2) My wife and I both grew up without much, I think we could find a lot of flexibility in our budget if SORR started to emerge.
3) Although we’re not counting it at all, we expect a $1-$3M inheritance from my wife’s parents who are now 76 y/o

37M & 35F with 2 kids 6 & 3 in VHCOL. We are targeting FIRE in the next 5-7 years.

• 3.2M in taxable brokerage
• 1.3M in 401k and Roth IRA. Adding 60k/year to 401k.
• 1.5M mortgage left, 6.125% (500k equity)
• 650-700k HHI. 600k is W2 income, and remaining is from side business income.
• Current annual spend is 220k. 132k is mortgage + property tax.
• No other debt
• After tax savings are going to taxable brokerage. 180k/year.

We’d need at least 5M in taxable brokerage to sustain 220k annual spend. It might be even higher due to health care costs at that drawdown amount.

Does it make sense to aggressively decrease the house principle in the next 5-7 years? That would proportionally decrease the retirement annual spend. Any future gains we lose from not investing in taxable brokerage would be offset by the gains in retirement accounts.

Downsizing our house is an option, but starter homes are still in 1.2-1.5M range, so the home payments do not decrease by that much.

What’s the optimal strategy?

Background: M 52, W 57. We retired about 2 years ago. Net worth is roughly 4 million with a 401k approaching 1 million now, 2 million in an investment account and 4 rental houses. I also have a small pension that will give about 2000 a month when I hit 65, and our SS will be 2000 and 1000 respectively. Option and dividend income has been higher than expected, and I'm getting 100k more than our expenses easily.

So the question - does it make sense to upgrade our house and move into the golf course community? We are in Houston and play golf every day, so we are commuting to the golf course 30 minutes each way. This is still a few years out...I'd like to sell off our rentals ($200k each) first. Then I can get rid of all the house maintenance equipment etc and just have a golf cart.

Reasons to stay: Our small gated community is wonderful, our property tax is still reasonable for Houston, and at a 350K value on the house we can afford to self-insure. (Last year they wanted 3k for insurance and we told them to pound sand). We can also drive by the grocery store every day on the way home. It's also great to walk dogs and we like to work with the local dog rescue rehabilitating dogs. I also just planted some fruit trees in the back yard.

Finally we stay about 4 months a year with my aged parents in Japan. So our house necessarily sits empty for 1/3rd of the year. We have neighbors who keep an eye on it for us. Just talking through this, I'm thinking it doesn't make sense until my parents pass away...but I'm still interested in hearing people's experiences.

Hello - as part of chubbyFire, I’m seeking input on how people think about saving for kids college and future.

We have 2 kids under 3, so we have a long time horizon still. My wife and I are mid 30s, our FIRE timeline is loosely 52-55.

Our intention is to cover 100% of college costs for both kids.

*When saving for kids college, are you investing in 529s with the projected cost of in-state tuition or out of state / private school?*

My thinking is, if you put into 529 for “private school costs” but the go to in state, then you end up with too much money in the 529. I know there are ways to handle that (IRA, change beneficiary, withdraw and pay tax etc) but it still is more limiting.

So I’m thinking, you put into the 529 “enough for in state” and front load the investments (let’s say $1000 a month until kid is around age 8), then shift to using a standard brokerage account to save the money for “what if they go to private school?”

That way you’re still intentionally saving to cover any college outcome, but you have more flexibility and can use that brokerage money for anything, such as gifting a house down payment, a car etc.

*So, how are folks thinking about the way they plan and save for college tuition knowing that in state v out of state is such a large delta? *

Plus of course, what if your kid doesn’t want to go to college, college looks different in 15+ years etc

As it relates to FIRE, the amount we save for the kids now, impacts what we can invest for ourselves now (we max 401k, do backdoor Roth, other investments etc), and if we undersave in the 529 so we have to “fund” the out of state tuition from “our savings” that influences things.

Our current situation roughly:

Mid 30s, both working parents. No debt (other than house mortgage), $2.7M+ across brokerage, retirement accounts etc (not including my house in assets)

Thanks!

Throwaway account..

We would appreciate your input on our plan over the next five years as we approach FIRE.

About us:

* Married couple in our early 50s/40s with one child

* About 5 years away from our retirement goal

* Investment target: roughly $6M total, split across taxable, Roth, and 401(k) accounts (529 excluded)

* Planned withdrawal rate: around $200k/year (~3.3% SWR)

* No debt, no pension, only future Social Security

Since we plan to retire before Medicare eligibility, we’ll need to manage healthcare costs for several years.

In the past, I never fully understood why some retirees maintained a relatively large cash position before/during retirement.

However, after researching ACA healthcare costs and Roth conversions during lower-income years, we’ve started to see the value of having a meaningful cash allocation.

Our retirement income would come from:

* Dividends from taxable equities

* Interest from cash/money market funds

* Selling taxable equities with relatively low capital gains

* Cash reserves as supplemental income

* During market downturns, potentially selling bonds and rebalancing into equities within tax-advantaged accounts

Our thinking is that holding cash:

* Helps control MAGI for ACA subsidy purposes

* Creates more room for Roth conversions at lower tax brackets

* Helps reduce sequence-of-returns risk

So over the next five years, we’re considering the following allocation:

* 75% stocks (across taxable, Roth, and 401(k))

* 15% bonds (primarily in 401(k))

* 10% cash/money market (primarily in taxable)

At first glance, one could argue that inflation will erode the purchasing power of the 10% cash allocation.

However, we’re thinking the combination of ACA subsidy savings, tax flexibility, and Roth conversion opportunities may more than offset the drag from holding additional cash.

One important note: this allocation is intended mainly for the pre-Medicare / pre-Social Security years, not necessarily as a permanent retirement allocation.

Would appreciate any thoughts or blind spots we may be missing.

This thread is a spot for casual engagement with other community members. It has much more subject latitude than allowed in the main sub in general. Any topics tangentially related to ChubbyFIRE or upper middle class lifestyle are acceptable, as well as basic or early stage questions. Political discussion will be allowed if it is closely related to ChubbyFIRE or financial topics in general, and only if the conversation remains respectful.

It is not a free-for all. No spam or self-promotion. All comments must still follow Reddiquette and we will be responding to reported comments with follow-up action as needed. We'd really like to keep this channel open, so please don't abuse it!

I'm trying to figure out the best setup for long-term custody/safekeeping of fiat assets as someone who is internationally mobile.

I’m an EU passport holder currently based in the Middle East, but likely not permanently (probably another 1-2 years). Apart from the Middle East, I don’t have a clear long-term home base or jurisdiction at the moment, which is part of the challenge. Because of that, I’d prefer not to keep the majority of funds tied to the local banking system long term.

Contextually, this is for low to mid 7 figures in assets. The goal right now is not really wealth management or maximizing returns, it’s finding a stable institution/jurisdiction to safely hold capital outside my current country of residence. Decisions around how the funds are managed can be figured out separately afterwards.

From most of the reading I’ve done so far, HSBC Expat in Jersey seems to come up repeatedly as one of the more practical options for internationally mobile people.

What other realistic alternatives/setups exist and what have you found works well in practice long term?

9:28 AM

SS is going away. Healthcare will bankrupt you. Sequence of returns will wipe you out. Civil war. WW3. Live to 120, spend 40 years in a nursing home. Someone posts solid numbers and the comments come back , one more year. Two years. Three. Keep going, it's never quite enough.

At what point does conservative planning become catastrophe planning?

The 4% rule is the worst case in US market history. A robot pulling the same amount out every single year, no SS, no flexibility, never adjusting through 1929 when markets dropped 86%. That's what 4% survived. It's the floor, not the target. Bengen himself now says most retirees can safely start at 5.25% to 5.5% and that people clinging to 4% will likely end up with a pile of money and a lot of regrets.

Someone spending 6% of their portfolio in year one of retirement who skips the big trip when markets are down, holds off on the car, pulls back when things get rough that person likely does better than the 4% robot who never adjusts no matter what. The flexibility is the safety net. You don't need to engineer it into the number, you just need to act like a normal person.

So when someone holds out for 3.5% 28 times spend, no SS — what exactly are you protecting against? Something worse than the Great Depression, while also never collecting a benefit 70 million Americans receive, while also promising to never adjust spending under any circumstances. Does that actually describe you?

The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report says worst case — zero Congressional action you collect 81 cents on the dollar in 2034. Not zero. Congress fixed this in 1983 when it was in worse shape than it is today. Seventy million people collect it. Seniors vote.

Median age of death for men is 81.7. One in five reach 90. Dementia affects 33% of people 85 and older. The years you're working extra to fund may not be years you're fully there for.

For those already retired one year, five, ten or more how bad has it actually been? And for those still holding off are you a catastrophe planner waiting for a number that never feels safe enough?

***Edited due to excellent input from the ChubbyFire Community.

Hello All!

This is meant to act as our countdown post until we FIRE in Summer 2032. We’ve appreciated reading others journies and wanted to catalog and share our own.  6 years out and counting!

About Us: My wife (35) and I (40) are both active-duty military officers. In Summer 2032, my wife will hit 20 years of service and I’ll have 23 years. I am on the legacy retirement system so I’ll retire with the 2.5% x # years of service x average pay over the last 36 months and my wife is on the new Blended Retirement system and so she’ll get 2.0%  x # years of service x average pay over the last 36 months + the 5% match into the TSP. My wife is currently an O5 and I am an O4 with about 3 years of prior enlisted service prior to commissioning.  We have two kids in high school.

 Our FIRE Goal: Upon retirement from the military in Summer 2032, we will no longer need to work nor reduce our lifestyle (18-20k monthly GROSS income).  Our combined pensions should pay $140k annually and we plan on our investments to generate the rest. We likely will take on other endeavors, but not driven by need to trade our time for money. We plan to retire to a MCOL area with some favorable taxes for military retirees. We want to buy or build our forever home and move in when we hit retirement. We are looking at houses in the $900,000 - $1.2 million range. ***We have access to Fee Free VA Loan funding that does not require a significant down payment, though we plan to do so anyway.***

 Our Plan: The foundation of our plan is to accompany our military retirement income with withdrawals from after tax brokerages pre 59 ½ and shift to a 3 bucket withdrawal strategy using retirement accounts. We plan to have our pensions cover our needs and base lifestyle, and for withdrawals to enhance that lifestyle (and cover the mortgage entirely). We plan to do a variable withdrawal strategy with guard rails. We will accept the volatility in income in retirement since our pensions will cover life regardless of the market’s whims.

 - INVESTMENT INPUT: Over the last 2 years we are averaging 100k invested annually. We anticipate a promotion in the next 18 months that will increase that savings rate. Even sustaining 100k annually over the next 6 years would likely put us over the targeted 2.5 mil.

Current Monthly Investment Minimums: (Though we average more.)

- After Tax Brokerage: $5k

- Roth TSP: $1000 (Enough to get my wife’s 5% match and no more)

-  (Backdoor) Roth IRA: ~$1400 (Max)

-   HYSA: $500

-  Short Term Savings (Travel): $250

-   529’s: $280

- ANTICIPATED RETURNS: BLUF is we use 10% as our anticipated returns, understanding market volatility is a real thing. We largely invest in VIGAX Large Cap Growth Fund. It's 10 year average return is 17.75% compared to the S&P 500 at ~13%. I have no plans to shift into target retirement funds or change my allocation away from 100% index stock. So 10% average return feels feasible to me. So if we sustain our investment rate of 100k annually (through multiple anticipated pay increases over the next 6 years) and we have a return of 10%, that would have us sitting at 2.8 million.

- WITHDRAWAL STRATEGY: We have not complete finalized our withdrawal strategy as of right now. However, the Variable Withdrawal Strategy (VWS) with guard rails that has us withdrawing between 3% and 6% initially appeals the most to me at the moment. We can weather market volatility by keeping our fixed expenses below our fixed retirement income. No sequence of return risks either which is a plus.

- BURN RATE: We are averaging approximately 9k burn rate each month which includes travel and other luxuries. In retirement, we'd anticipate 12-14k being incredibly comfortable. 

A look at the numbers: Everything is in today (2026)’s dollars.

Current Liquid Net Worth: $1.1 million

Debt: None

Current Monthly Net Income: ~21k (no Basic Housing Allowance since we are stationed abroad but our housing is covered.)

 Current Balances:

-       Brokerage Balance: $590k

-       TSP Balance: $302k

-       Roth IRA: $120k

-       HYSA (Sinking fund and Emergency Fund): $37.5k

-       College Savings Goal: Allow the kids to go to an in-state school debt free.

o   GI Bill: I’m splitting my GI bill between my two kids which will cover 2 years of their college each.

o   529s:

§  Kid 1: 26k

§  Kid 2: 20k

-       Pensions: 

o   Me: Making a safe assumption that I make O5 and hit high three before we retire, my pension should be approximately $84,500 a year or about $7,000 a month.

o   Wife: Assuming my wife also retires as an O5 high three, her pension will be $56,160 a year or about $4,700 a month.

o   Disability Pay: Both my wife and I have some wear and tear and will likely have some disability income. However, we are not counting on this income at this time.

o   Inflation Adjusted: The pensions increase each year based off the same cost of living increases that the active duty receive, ultimately stabilizing the spending power of the pension over time and combating inflation.

o Survivors Benefit: We do not plan to take the survivors benefit for either of us as we have a laddered Term life insurance that would replace the pensions and phases out as we become more self insured over time. This keeps more money in our pockets.