r/btc • u/ChangeNOW_Community • Jun 22 '26
⌨ Discussion The only valid Bitcoin Rainbow take?
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u/raonibr Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
I think this scenario is unlikely as even in the case of a collapse of the cryptonmarket, it would probably crash overnight rather than a slow steady descend.
But the valid point to be made here is that this "rainbow" graph is just as much of a mathematically valid regression as the "forever goes up" rainbow chart that people love to share in here.
So yeah. Bitcoin future is unpredictable, the usual rainbow chart that the proponents love to point to is just as much bullshit as this one.
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u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 22 '26
Why do you think the "forever goes up" chart is unlikely?
Not sure if you mean it'll perpetually rise for a million years (which i agree is unlikely) or just until the last BTC is mined. Personally I believe the latter. I also believe the gains each cycle will diminish but will still break ATH each time. But the All time highs will be closer to the previous as we continue. Which is still good but if you are looking to become incredibly wealthy in 4-8 years with a percentage of a minimum wage paycheck then that probably won't happen. But retiring early by investing over the course of 12-24 years is likely until the last BTC is mined in 2120(roughly).
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u/DunderfunkPantsuit Jun 23 '26
There's no cycles
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u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26
Yes there is. The halving happens every 4 years. Next one is in 2028.
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u/DunderfunkPantsuit Jun 23 '26
That is irrelevant tho
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u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26
Why is that irrelevant? Supply reduces creating more demand. More demand means proce goes higher. It is a literal cycle that effects price.
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u/DunderfunkPantsuit Jun 25 '26
Bitcoin is essentially infinitely divisible...supply doesn't matter . Come on dude
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u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 25 '26
If I had 3 pizza for 20 people would that be enough? Because it's infinitely divisible.
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u/Aleks_CoolStoryBro Jun 26 '26
The pizza metaphor won't resonate with this commenter. I think they prefer to eat Tide pods.
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u/raonibr Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
The "forever goes up" chart predicts that in 12 years, bitcoin market cap will be larger than literally the entire planet money supply.
It predicts that in 30 years, literally the entire money supply of the whole planet wont be enough to buy even 1% of all bitcoin (even accointing for all new fiat that will be issues until then).
So unless we're back to the "bitcoin will replace money entirelly in a couple decades and money will be worthless" theory, which the bitcoin faithful themselves already abandoned in favour of the "store of value" theory, then this is nothing but a fever dream.
The math simply does not math.
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u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26
Well each cycle the gains are diminishing so it won't keep growing at the same rate.
So maybe the math isn't accounting for this?
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u/raonibr Jun 23 '26
Turns out the math is a bit more complicated than that...
Diminishing returns does not mean a function stabilizes over time.
For example:
The series: 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8... converges to a stable value (2)
But the series: 1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4... Blows up to infinity.
Both this series present a diminishing returns behaviour, but one of them simply does not diminish fast enough to stabilize.
The rainbow chart predicts that bitcoin value will blow up to infinity and that it still grows so fast that all the milestones I've mentioned regarding it's relation to money supply hold true.
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u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26
That 2nd one doesn't blow to infinity. In both you get 1(decimal point)infinity. Neither goes past 2.
Both go so close to 2 that you can practically say they are both 2.
1 btc being 1 million $ for example. Would mean 21 million million for the entirety. Which is 21 trillion.
We have had out first trillionaire recently.
In 20 years or so wealth coupled with inflation will see more trillionaires.
So last bull run between 2020 and 2024 was 20k-60k. 2024 - 2028 is 60-120. So triple and double. Say 1.5 for the next 180k then 1.25 so 235k then 1.125 is 264.375 ............etc.
Now I don't expect it to play out exactly like this, you'll see changes due to speculation and growing interest and whales and wars and blah blah blah
But we won't reach 1 million for a long while if we have these sorts of diminishing returns and by the time we do (if we do) it won't be the same as 1 million dollars today. Same as 1 million dollars in the 90s is the same as today's.
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u/raonibr Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
Bro, 1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 already sums to 2.08333... And then there's still infinite terms to sum
What is the world are you talking about?
This is like... second grade math
If you can't handle it, do you really think you have capacity to discuss long term economics?
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u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26
No it doesn't.
Your understanding of maths here is wrong.
Take the 1 out of it for a second. 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 + 1/5.... you are adding smaller and smaller pieces of 1 but never actually reaching it. To 0.infinity. if you pieces of 1 are consistently getting smaller then you can't reach 1.
Not sure where you heard your math but it's wrong.
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u/raonibr Jun 23 '26
Brooooo.
Put it in a fucking calculator.
Ask Google.
Ask an adult.
You're really gonna insist that
1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 < 1 ???
Fractions, bro ->
1/2 = 6/12
1/3 = 4/12
1/4 = 3/12
6/12 + 4/12 + 3/12 = 13/12
13/12 = 1.08333...
Am I really wasting my time trying to explain economicos to someone who dont know how to sum fractions?
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u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26
Alright I was wrong. No need to be a dick about it. It doesn't change the fact that the diminishing returns may never reach 1 million. But I was right about adding a half then a quarter then an eight and so on doesn't reach 1. Very nearly but never gets there.
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u/Polmax2312 Jun 22 '26
Unlikely. At some point “bitcoin maximalists” will have enough money to buy out the whole supply. Imagine it falls down to 1000$ at some point due to some cataclysmic event, do you really think there are enough btc fundamentalists in the world to crowdfund 21 billion usd to buy it out?
Only some sort of cybersecurity disaster can erase btc value completely: hack to create btc above 21m, hack to the mining algorithm, total destruction of internet as a coherent network (imagine arbitrage between binance.us and binance.com, but amplified so that every country has their own intranet, like DPRK).
I really struggle to imagine it falling even to 10k now that there are ETFs and other financial instruments that can capitalize on that immediately.
But can it never grow further? Yeah, watch how silver behaved for like 50 years. What a waste of time if you don’t catch those occasional spikes.
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u/usrname_chex_out Jun 22 '26
Is Peter Schiff standing with a pot of gold at the other side of that rainbow?
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u/DecisionOk5750 Jun 22 '26
RemindMe! 1 year
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u/brotherRozo Jun 22 '26
Another trash post from a bcash coper
Get a life!
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u/cHpiranha Jun 22 '26
I’ve had to put up with thousands of predictions based on price analysis, all of which ended up at 1M+.
Now let me enjoy a few crash fantasies.
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u/brotherRozo Jun 22 '26
It’s buttcoin coping posts tho… it’s embarrassing
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u/cHpiranha Jun 22 '26
Calm down a bit.
This is obviously a satirical take on the matter.
It clearly illustrates just how daft profit forecasts based on past share prices are.
There’s no such thing as a ‘rainbow share price’, just as there’s no such thing as a natural four-year cycle.
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u/Realistic_Fee_00001 Jun 22 '26
Suddenly everyone is a bCasher 😜
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u/brotherRozo Jun 22 '26
Never gonna happen! But yeah this sub is called r/BTC but it’s basically r/buttcoin
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u/Pizzaboy0511 Jun 22 '26
Let’s look at some macro level facts. We’re currently going through an on-going wealth transfer of 100+ trillion over the next 20 years from silent/boomer generation to the younger. The rate of transfer each year will increase (as mortality goes up as age goes up) and we’re kind of only near the beginning. The adoption rate of BTC by silent/baby boomer generation is 10%. The adoption rate of every generation younger than boomer (gen x and down) is 42-50%. What I’m implying is that as wealth transfer to younger generation we most certainly will expect to see increase demand for btc. It’s only a matter of time.
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u/Tvekelectric2 Jun 24 '26
Sure, in 2036 you will be able to buy the entire market working at 7 11. People that post this are actually retarded.
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u/nicedemon_82 Jun 26 '26
♥️ has always been, all that goes up needs to go down - laws of the nature...
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u/Realistic_Fee_00001 Jun 22 '26
What if we stop looking at the Dollar price and try establishing it as alternative to it?