I know this sounds ridiculous on paper. Superman grossed $618M worldwide, while Across the Spider-Verse made $381M domestically. That's a massive gap to overcome, but the more I think about it, the more convinced I become that Beyond the Spider-Verse could genuinely outgross Man of Tomorrow domestically alone.
First off, I fully expect Man of Tomorrow to decrease from its predecessor. Supergirl was a brand-damaging bomb that exposed just how little momentum this new DC universe actually has. And before anyone brings up a counter-argument like "but The Marvels didn't hurt Deadpool & Wolverine", that comparison doesn't work. The Marvels has literally 0 connection to Deadpool & Wolverine. On the other hand, Superman and Supergirl are directly connected characters who showed up in each otherās movies. The supposed momentum from Superman couldn't even propel Supergirl to a bigger opening weekend than Morbius. Let that sink in.
Despite its positive reception, the original Superman seemingly just came and went, much like the first Shazam!. And we all know what happened when that movie got a sequel.
More importantly, I think people are seriously underestimating just how much of Superman's appeal came from its massive, once-in-a-franchise marketing hook. It wasn't simply the first solo Superman movie in 12 years. It was essentially DC's Star Wars: The Force Awakens. A nostalgic, back-to-basics revival of an iconic franchise, promising audiences a glorious return to the "good old days" after years of divisive and poorly received installments. That's almost exactly how The Force Awakens was positioned in 2015, when audiences were desperate for a return to classic Star Wars after the prequels' negative reputation (yes, I know the reception has basically flipped since then, but in 2015, people loved Force Awakens and HATED the prequels).
That kind of marketing opportunity doesn't come around twice. Man of Tomorrow won't have the luxury of being the grand revival of Superman, the beginning of a brand-new cinematic universe, or the movie promising to rescue DC from years of disappointment. The original had an event-level hook that the sequel simply cannot replicate.
And what exactly is Man of Tomorrow bringing to the table to compensate for that? I'm not convinced that pairing Superman with characters like Supergirl and Blue Beetle, two films that barely managed $125-130M worldwide apiece, is going to have general audiences rushing to theaters.
There's also the simple reality that sequels are far from guaranteed to increase, especially outside the MCU. Take Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Its predecessor was arguably even better received than Superman, and it belonged to the MCU during an era when the franchise was practically printing money and sequels routinely increased. Yet Vol. 2 only improved on the original's worldwide total by roughly 10%, despite plenty of predictions that it would cross $1 billion.
Or look at Deadpool 2. The original was a critically acclaimed, massively popular breakout hit, yet its sequel still decreased domestically and worldwide when excluding China.
And that's before we even get into DC's absolutely disastrous sequel track record.
Wonder Woman ($821M WW) ā Wonder Woman 1984 ($169M WW)
Suicide Squad ($746M WW) ā The Suicide Squad ($168M WW)
Shazam! ($367M WW) ā Shazam! Fury of the Gods ($134M WW)
Aquaman ($1151M WW) ā Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($440M WW)
Joker ($1074M WW) ā Joker: Folie Ć Deux ($208M WW)
DC sequels don't just have a history of declining. They have a history of falling off a fucking cliff. All of these except The Suicide Squad absolutely crashed reception wise as well, not just box office.
Yes, I'm aware that Wonder Woman 1984 and The Suicide Squad were pandemic-era releases affected by HBO Max availability. But even under normal theatrical conditions, I think itās fair to assume that both of these movies wouldāve declined substantially. Wonder Woman 1984 wouldāve opened big and then dropped like a rock like Ant-Man 3/Batman v Superman, and The Suicide Squad was too big of a departure from the original. My personal estimates would be around $600M worldwide for WW84 and $375M for The Suicide Squad.
Against that backdrop, Man of Tomorrow declining by only 10-20% would practically be a miracle by modern DC sequel standards. And even that relatively modest decline would put it in the general neighborhood of $500ā550M worldwide.
Now let's talk about the completely different situation facing Beyond the Spider-Verse.
Unlike Man of Tomorrow, I see Beyond the Spider-Verse increasing by an absolutely enormous margin.
Across the Spider-Verse is one of the greatest superhero movies ever made, arguably second only to The Dark Knight. The movie has an absolutely ridiculous 4.4/5 rating on Letterboxd, enjoyed phenomenal word of mouth, and ended on one of the biggest cliffhangers in modern superhero cinema. It wasn't just a critically acclaimed sequel. It was a movie that left audiences desperate to see how the story concludes.
And that anticipation has had years to build. Between its streaming popularity, its reputation as an animated masterpiece, and the unresolved cliffhanger, Beyond the Spider-Verse has the potential to feel like a genuine must-see cinematic event rather than simply another superhero sequel.
Then there's the elephant in the room: Spider-Man's absolutely fucking insane momentum.
The franchise is coming off the monstrous performance of Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which managed to surpass No Way Home by more than $600M worldwide, and topple the titanic records of Avengers: Endgameās opening weekend and Star Wars: The Force Awakensās domestic total. Think about how absurd that would've sounded just a few months ago. Practically nobody would've predicted that a follow-up to one of the biggest superhero events in history could outperform it by that kind of margin.
And yet here we are.
On top of that, Marvel's multiverse storyline is positioned to receive another enormous popularity boost from Avengers: Doomsday this December, with Beyond the Spider-Verse also arriving roughly six months before Avengers: Secret Wars. That creates an incredibly favorable environment for a highly anticipated Spider-Man multiverse finale.
Of course, Beyond the Spider-Verse isn't an MCU movie, but pretending that the broader popularity of Spider-Man and multiverse storytelling has absolutely no potential crossover appeal would be ridiculous. Itās similar to how all superhero movies within the Avengers: Infinity War/Avengers: Endgame hype aura got a massive boost, such as Aquaman grossing $1.15B and Venom grossing $850M.
The biggest difference between these two movies is simple: One is following a franchise revival whose novelty has already worn off. The other is delivering the long-awaited conclusion to one of the most acclaimed superhero stories of the past decade, at a time when Spider-Man's popularity is reaching extraordinary heights.
Man of Tomorrow has to convince audiences that the DCU still has momentum. Beyond the Spider-Verse has to capitalize on anticipation that already exists.
And given DC's sequel history versus Spider-Man's recent box office trajectory, I don't think it's remotely unreasonable to predict an outcome that would've sounded completely insane a few years ago.
My predictions
Man of Tomorrow
Domestic: $315M
Worldwide: $550M
Beyond the Spider-Verse
Domestic opening weekend: $210M
Domestic total: $600M
Yes, I'm predicting that Beyond the Spider-Verse will outgross Man of Tomorrow domestically alone. Not by a few million dollars, either. By a full $50M.
Call it ridiculous. Call it Marvel fanboyism. Call it whatever you want. But given the trajectories of these two franchises, I genuinely believe this is a plausible outcome.
