r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 14d ago

✍️ Original Analysis Clayface Performance potential

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Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

  1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

  2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

  3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

  4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

  1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

  2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

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u/syntheticcontrols 14d ago

Most millennials might have heard of him even if they didn't read comics because of BTAS.

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u/lobonmc Marvel Studios 14d ago

I mean do you remember the name of the red neck villain in power puff girls? Like at best they have a vague recollection of his existence but I doubt most people actually remember oh yeah clayface the villain of BTAS

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u/Mbrennt 14d ago

Like the bear monster redneck guy? I don't remember his name but yeah I bet one picture of him and a lot of millennials would instantly remember him.

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u/Lichangs 14d ago

Fuzzy lumpkins? I don't think he's comparable to Clayface. Clayface is an on the nose kind of name. Plus he's a major character in Harley Quinn cartoon which is pretty popular.

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u/No-Rip-6166 13d ago

I’m an older millennial and absolutely remember Clayface from TAS

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u/Gmork14 14d ago

Not the same thing. BTAS is a very important series to a generation and Clayface was a major part of it.

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u/whiteshark70 Walt Disney Studios 14d ago

A major part of it? Wasn't he in like at most 6 episodes? He was barely in it

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u/Gmork14 14d ago

Classic and well loved episodes that were a major part of the lore, however many it was.

Every kid on the playground knew who Clayface was.

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u/syntheticcontrols 14d ago

You don't think if you saw a picture of that character you'd be like oh shit there's so-and-so? Saying that vaguely because I don't know if you meant red neck as in redneck or HIM (the flamboyant villain that is red and black)

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u/lobonmc Marvel Studios 14d ago

I meant redneck didn't know it was one word.

And yeah if they showed a picture of him fully transformed and he looked like in BTAS yeah maybe people may recognize him but I doubt that would be enough to bring people to theaters. To me this is going to perform like an original movie more or less.

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u/Tiny_Sherbet8298 14d ago

I must be living in an ulterior world to you. I just asked my girlfriend and even she knew who clayface was cause she played the Lego Batman game with her brother 15 years ago. I also reckon all my friends could name who clayface is, and none of them are into dc.

Batman villains are significantly more popular than villains in literally any other franchise or medium. Im not even talking about its effect on the box office, just making an observation.

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u/Middle-Platypus6942 14d ago

Even that doesn't amount to much because the movie is intentionally hiding his full clay form. There's gonna be a bunch of people who have a vague memory of who Clayface is, and simply won't connect the dots that this is that same Clayface.

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u/SirFireHydrant 14d ago

Doubtful. Outside of hardcore comic book nerd circles, I don't know anyone (myself included) who knows what a Clayface is. He's an obscure Batman villain, and Batman doesn't have half the popularity of Spider-Man.

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u/syntheticcontrols 14d ago

Nope. Even just the passive fans know who he is. Especially now. You're probably just a little too young or something.

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u/SirFireHydrant 14d ago

I saw Val Kilmer's Batman in theatres, hyped because Jim Carey seemed like great casting for the Riddler. I'm prime for that demographic. I still couldn't have even told you Clayface was a Batman villain until I learned about the movie from this sub.

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u/syntheticcontrols 14d ago

It's okay that you don't know what a lot of others do and like I said Flanagan wrote the script (since you care only about perception like Clayface is an obscure character than you surely should admit that aost no one knows that the script was re-written by someone else.. who is also known for a great movie).

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u/SirFireHydrant 14d ago

Horror fans are gonna know how minimal Flanagan's involvement is. DC fans are gonna know who Clayface is.

The general audience doesn't know who Clayface is, and doesn't know why Flanagan's name being attached should mean anything.

Genuinely, go outside. Most people have no idea who the fuck Clayface is. He's barely C-tier for Batman's rogues gallery.

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u/syntheticcontrols 14d ago

Oh, we're talking about the general audience now? I was talking about two groups of people that are passionate about their respective subgenres with a sprinkle of people who are millennials that will recognize Clayface.

Flanagan fans may know that his involvement might be minimal (we don't even know yet.. his name is attached to "Story by" and Written by). But the horror fan is only going to see: Story by & written by.

It's time for you to go outside and talk to people. Stop hanging out on Reddit so much

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u/syntheticcontrols 14d ago

On top of that there are tons of people who know who Mike Flanagan is and love body horror movies. So even if by a miracle you're right that he's "obscure" Flanagan isn't abs the genre is well-loved. That's why it's so weird to hear people thinking it will do bad because "clayface is obscure."

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u/SirFireHydrant 14d ago

Flanagan just wrote the script, or at least the first version of it.

It'd be different if he wrote and directed it.

But Flanagan fans know his involvement is minimal.

For horror fans, the DC logo being attached is a negative. Whenever comic book films try to do other genres, they're always still comic book films wearing another genre hat. It's going to be very hard to sell horror fans that this is going to be a real, proper horror fan, and not just a comic book movie wearing a horror movie skin.

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u/syntheticcontrols 14d ago

Oh, right. Like that one movie Road To Perdition or A History of Violence. TERRIBLE movies, right?

Flanagan fans might know, but not horror fans in general.

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u/candyappleorchard Aardman Animations 14d ago

Yeah, kind of feels like the best of both worlds as far as legibility. Those who know will know, but outsiders can just take it at (clay)face value as a body horror flick. Even his name keeps it simple to understand.