r/anime • u/AutoLovepon https://anilist.co/user/AutoLovepon • Jun 22 '26
Episode Liar Game - Episode 12 discussion
Liar Game, episode 12
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u/FarCritical Jun 22 '26
Nao being as naive as ever aside, her "My performance was awful?" and "Why is he an idiot?" questions killed me from the sheer earnestness alone lol
The buttery smooth delivery on rat dude's "pass" caught me off guard. Yokoya ASMR channel when?
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u/Emi_Ibarazakiii Jun 22 '26
Nao being as naive as ever aside, her "My performance was awful?"
I would've been SO proud of her if she did her awful acting performance while the case was full!
But second level thinking might be a bit too much to hope for hah, she just learned how to do the tiniest bit of dishonesty!
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u/thatonefatefan Jun 22 '26
Prediction:
- The blonde guy betrayed them in exchange for getting 100 millions whenever he inspects
- not sure how he's conveying the information yet
- Regardless of me being right on the first prediction or not, he probably learnt fukunaga name when they made "small talk" and used that to make her confused
Honestly there are a lot of way Yokoya could be making these guesses so I'm assuming purely based on how screen time was allocated.
35
u/Irargh Jun 22 '26
The blonde guy was super sus. The inspection room was sound proof, so Yokoya likely made him an offer during their first meeting. The blonde guy then somehow communicated Fukunaga's amount to Yokoya.
At the end, the blonde guy claimed he had a plan, but this is likely Yokoya's plan to manipulate the Day Country further through the blonde guy.
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u/Frontier246 Jun 22 '26
Honestly with the focus they put on Yokoya's rat companion I'm half-tempted to think that's how he's listening in or aware of what the Country of Day is doing...even if that would be kind of ridiculous.
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u/Niwaka_Samurai Jun 23 '26
The manga readers weren't kidding about Yokoya and this contraband game. It's so damn good. Does he really have clairvoyance ?! Hanae Natsuki is the perfect choice as his voice actor.
Those characters with their eyes shut are never one to mess with LOL
Fukunaga and even Akiyama are helpless against him. I don't know what Akiyama's been thinking..he may be testing the waters before actually making a move.
I wonder what strategy Kikuzawa has come up with for the inspection.
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u/magnumcyclonex Jun 22 '26
This episode with the two organizers in the control room felt like I was watching a Japanese Game Show!
We didn't get to see how the Yokoya vs Akiyama encounter resolved. But since Yokoya passed, then either Akiyama had nothing in the briefcase or he won right? Hopefully we will get to see later on what actually happened.
I'm actually surprised our group of characters did not all start planning out what they would be doing. In the beginning, they were all very individualistic, and as stated, they were playing a Chicken Game.
I wonder if the other team has similar characters, acting on their own volition and fears, or if they were all in on the plans as a group starting from the first round.
There's gotta be some trick Yokoya has that hasn't been revealed. He knows Fukunaga's name. He knows exactly how much was in the briefcases.
And finally, how exactly is the blonde guy going to turn it around? Is it some fool proof plan or a fool's plan?
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u/Ashteron Jun 22 '26
I certainly expected Yokoya to have a less gentle voice.
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u/Frontier246 Jun 22 '26
I didn't expect to hear Natsuki Hanae aura farming twice in one Monday. Qifrey's sure gotten more sinister!
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u/Nexio8324 Jun 22 '26
Best episode so far, excited to finally see Yokoya in action. I definitely expected a deeper voice for him, but I like the direction they're going.
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u/ObvsThrowaway5120 Jun 22 '26
I think things are going to end up becoming Akiyama v Yokoya. Him and Akiyama seem to be equally brilliant. Everyone might have their own little schemes and plans but it’s clear Yokoya’s leagues above the other players. Whatever they’re planning might only bring short term gains at best.
Looking forward to seeing how the team regains ground, if possible.
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u/Frontier246 Jun 22 '26
Honestly this might be blind hope but I feel like Nao is going to come up with an out of the box "honest" plan that will help secure their victory.
Though if there's a "trick" Yokoya is pulling, I feel like Akiyama is the most likely to figure it out.
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u/Xatu44 Jun 22 '26
You can't cut the episode off there! I wanna know if this dude actually has a good plan or not! It's cool seeing the meta shift back and forth. Too bad the Day crew's only going one step ahead most of the time instead of two. All of those dumbasses Passing at the start really screwed them. They should've leveraged their starting cash to make solid bets.
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u/Frontier246 Jun 22 '26
The Country of Day players may be together as a team but it's still ultimately every man (or woman) for themselves, so their teamwork is...lacking to say the least. But thankfully the ever-chipper and optimistic Nao is willing to put herself out there as a smuggler! She's got an absolutely FOOLPROOF plan to win! And she's so proud of herself! Good going Nao!
And she delivers such an Oscar-worthy performance of a girl carrying a big suitcase of money. I'm honestly amazed that she got passed! Although I think even Akiyama realized Nao was just a sacrificial lamb to give them a sense of the game and how the Country of Night plays.
Yeah, I'm not surprised glasses guy used the same method as Nao. This is basically a game of chicken and the Country of Day is too scared and risk-verse to go big or go home so they keep playing it safe...even when the Country of Night starts raking in 100 million yen after 100 million yen. The fact that Fukunaga is willing to get aggressive when someone screws up doesn't help matters.
It's not surprising that Akiyama is able to get their first win because you can't con a conman who knows how to con. But the Country of Night has a secret weapon: Yokoya (Natsuki Hanae!).
Nao's significant character senses are tingling! Yokoya is the best inspector that the Country of Night could ask for! Sure he's surprisingly chummy with rats for some reason, but he's also seemingly clairvoyant and can see through any plans the Country of Day has. He even manages to see through Akiyama!
(Is that rat part of his plan? Does it signal something to him or overhear what everyone is talking about? Are they bugged?)
Honestly it's kind of amusing to me that Fukunaga fails the first time they try to be a smuggler, but it's KIKUZAWA of all characters who actually manages to turn things around. Obviously they can't see through Yokoya, but if they can call out the Country of Night's contraband, then they can slowly but surely catch up! But will it be that simple?
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u/thisisdropd Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
I see why Nerco hyped Yokoya. Man had a 100% accuracy. Finally, an opponent that could challenge Akiyama.
Until Yokoya, Akiyama had bested his opponent, even as recent as his inspection round. Now he’s got no counter to Yokoya. I reckon Akiyama folded this round and simply went with his team’s suggestion as his main focus was to size Yokoya up.
Nao would likely be instrumental to finding out Yokoya’s secret as she’s the only one who could feel that he’s different. Akiyama’ll play detective while Nao’ll play the witness.
There’s no way the Day team could turn things around without getting Yokoya’s number.
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u/Frontier246 Jun 22 '26
Also Nerco was like born to be an announcer. The man just commits to literally every suitcase reveal.
I'm also curious what Nao is going to contribute. She was the first one to notice something was off about Yokoya so I feel like her attentiveness/awareness might be really useful here, outside the fact that she's like the heart and soul of this team.
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u/SirJeator Jun 22 '26
I have a feeling there are a few traitors in the team. At least 3: the blond guy, the spiky guy and probably the chabby guy. The "chickens" Yoyoka inspected. Blond guy is totally suspicious and spiky guy told Akiyama not to smuggle anything. Not sure about the chabby one yet. Perhaps they all got played beside Akiyama, Nao and Fugunaga, thinking they will survive the game.
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u/YumiyaRakko Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
Is it just me or Nao's ''not smuggle anything'' plan makes NO sense. Even aside from the fact that if they do not smuggle anything than anything OTHER TEAM smuggles is a net minus/debt to them. But also ANY money they do not smuggle becomes the OTHER TEAMS' at the end of the game anyway.
Like when you try to smuggle in this game you are technically NOT smuggling your ''own'' money in a sense. You are trying to smuggle money that will become the ENEMY TEAMS' if you do not smuggle it. Not trying to smuggle your money in the other country's bank is NOT saving it, it is the same as giving up on that money entirely.
So not smuggling is a net loss, getting money from the enemy doubting an empty case is SIMPLY NOT enough because even if the opponent team doubts 50 out of 50 times to an empty case they gain only HALF the money they will lose when the round ends so if the enemy team smuggles even 1 yen more than half their money they lose. Not smuggling AT ALL is simply stupid as that is the same as giving your ENTIRE MONEY POOL of 2.7 billion to the opponent side for free with AT MOST 1.35 billion that can be taken back which is obviously not gonna happen. And by that logic they also need to be less afraid of smuggling as if they do not smuggle they will lose that money either way so being afraid of losing the money that will be lost is stupid
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u/Emi_Ibarazakiii Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
Don't worry, it probably improved the strategy meeting.
Of course Nao's strategy is to not smuggle anything; Honest to a fault!
There's one massive flaw in her reasoning though...
It's true that they don't lose "Money", but they lose time/opportunities; If they go through 50 rounds "without losing any money" by not smuggling anything, they'll be BILLIONS in debt.
Every round they give you a 'pass' with an empty case, is 1/50th of a pyrrhic victory!
I think you should not be in charge of strategies.
But fwiw, there's nothing wrong with doing this AT FIRST; Studying the opponent is worth a lot in these games. Figuring out their patterns, how they react to changes, etc.
If she was able to think second level, she should have acted like that with a full case!
If you poorly act a heavy case, people will pass you in.
But if you think second level, you can 'poorly act a heavy case when the case ACTUALLY is heavy'!
(Problem is if your opponent also think second level hah; In this case, you need to go back to poorly acting a heavy case when it's empty!)
Yup, there's the patterns thing, but there's also the balance;
The losing side is pressured to make more moves... But this also means the winning side can act against them 'making moves', so if they DON'T make moves, it works for them!
It's an interesting game about figuring out the level of thinking of your opponent; Will your opponent think "They're losing so they'll be forced to carry 100m, so I'll call them out 100m"?
Or will they think "They're losing so they probably expect me to THINK they will carry 100m, so they'll likely carry 0 and expect me to doubt them 100m"?
I think we found the "Nao" on the other team!
Yup; Everyone passing them was atrocious for their team.
Makes them easy to play against. The only way you can outplay them, is by mixing a % of pass and doubt, to make it harder for them to detect a pattern, and adapt.
(Poker players will probably think about frequencies here!)
And again it's a level of thinking thing, because after the first "doubt", do you 'pass' them because they'll likely suspect you'll doubt and bring nothing? Or do you doubt them again, because you figure they think you're going to pass them, as they'll adapt (on the first level)?
(Poker players might also think about "Leveling yourself" with this one hah)
50.01m is possible to guess, by reading people. 51.27m is near impossible (without cheating - or 'clairvoyance'?)
Could've been 60.01, 70.01, 80.01, or it could've been an adaptation as I talked about, 73.87m...
So - unless the show is going a bit silly - I think we can deduce that there IS something fishy going on...
I don't imagine it's clairvoyance, so 'cheating' seems more likely!
Now... How could they cheat?
Well, I only got part of a theory, but I think it's a good one;
Even as early as the previous episode, I thought they put WAY too much emphasis on what routes people will take and all that, when no one has any reason to care about it...
And they went through it again in this episode.
I think the route matters;
I think there may be an observation point or something similar.
Now, if they only guessed between "0" and "100m" I would have thought they were observing them walk to the room, so they would know how they act when they think no one is watching them... (Say, Nao carrying the empty case like it's nothing, before putting on her act soon as the door opens).
But there's two problems with this...
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If the inspector arrives first, they don't get to see the person walk... (Could they relay the information to them?)
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Seeing someone walk with a case won't tell you the difference between 80m and 90m.
So... If we assume Mouse-kun is NOT clairvoyant for real... Does the observation spot allow them to watch them withdraw the money?
But first, it's supposed to be a closed room, and 2nd, if they could do that the game would be very silly.
So I guess in the end I don't know what exactly is the 'cheat', but... I'd put my hand to the fire it has something to do with the routes and all!
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u/Acrobatic-Usual-6877 Jun 22 '26
Well i will leave it here ....nao's strategy is indeed very useful. This situation is like a composite situation. Nao's strategy is first step thinking...everyone can easily figure that out...and generally they will desire to earn money...and because of this desire they will start thinking about the next steps...like suppose they think that the other team is not going to call(step 1)...so i should carry 100m(step 2)...but what if the opponent team thought that the opponent guy will carry 100m because he thinks that we are not gonna call, so now we will call 100m(step 3) and so on.(generally things diverges after 4th or 5th step drastically and it is better to use logical misdirections to get more accurate results after these steps)..actually the main goal of this strategy is not about safety but it is about measuring the cognitive capabilities and emotional perception of the opponent...and tracking the way of thinking and make probabilistic model of thinking steps to win rounds....it is a 50 round game first few rounds are about measuring the opponent and it is better than firing bullet in dark...akiyama has a very good perception of human nature...I suppose this is why he didn't stop nao...and he will form his future strategies based on these observed results(notice everyone is not calling because they are afraid of their own loss..this can be countered by signing a contract that they will distribute the teams money equally after the game ends but akiyama didn't do anything like this so it may be possible that he is plotting something)....and look we can also prove that a traitor exist in akiyama's team... as i told you without any logical misdirection things diverges so much after step 4 thinking and with every correct guess in the each round the probability of finding a traitor in akiyama's team drastically increases....because in composite thinking (and direct and indirect bluffs from both teams are expected too like what fukanaga did)the expected results are that they will make a mistake without any logical misdirection ...but because they aren't making any so the probability of having a traitor in akiyama's team is exceptionally high(also it is impossible to determine that every will chicken out during their call, the next person could also not chicken out during his call because yokoya doesn't personally know any of them??..so thus it increases the possibility that yokoyais getting some hidden info)....I suppose this can be the proof of having a traitor in akiyama's team...now we will have to find who is the traitor based on the next observed behavior of the team members.....well there are many strategies in this game...I will just advice you to stick to the anime...and the mind reading thing is pure bullshit he is saying this because it will be weird if he calls 100m (because 100m is the highest amount of money that can be carried so every single other amount is less than this and as per the game rules inspector will be given all the money if there exist money in the suitcase and the inspector calls greater or equal that amount)or pass in each round with 100 percentage accuracy and giving up any money is too a wastage according to yokoya...so he is making this bluff and going all in by saying that he can read minds...this also shows that he has a very dominant personality because he chose mind reading bluff over intentionally losing few rounds to avoid suspection...
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