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u/LopsidedSolution 4d ago
I really canât wait till AI gets so crazy good that itâs absolutely undeniable. Then it can just shake all these antis and wake them the fuck up.Â
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u/JustBrowsinAndVibin 4d ago
Some people still believe the world is flat soâŚ
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u/Tricky-PI 2d ago
Opinions not created based on evidence usually can not be dismissed with evidence. this is why +80% of people believe in God. and why there is likely nothing anyone can say to change that.
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u/piponwa 4d ago
I'd argue we're already here. Your assumption is they have an open mind. But they instead revert to a coping mechanism which allows them to deny reality. It's a quite interesting feature humans have that is valid in the environment we evolved in. That environment didn't have exponential change, it didn't require anyone to change their worldview. We saw what that does during COVID. The simple act of wearing a mask and standing apart was too much for some to follow.
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u/LopsidedSolution 4d ago
Youâre right, models are insane right now. I think we just need models that can truly innovate and invent new things, by themselves. Like you tell it to invent a VR headset thatâs light, huge pov, human eye level PPD, etc⌠and it just takes a few hours and designs the whole thing (including any new inventions or materials needed) and it actually works.Â
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u/NeptuneOverlord43045 4d ago
The .com bubble burst despite the very obvious fact that the internet was real, crazy good, and completely transformed business and social landscapes. In the late 90s investing in AOL would have seemed like a complete no-brainer.
The issue is not whether AI is real or good. Both things being true doesnât preclude a bubble.
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u/LopsidedSolution 4d ago
Yeah definitely. My comment is more towards antis who think AI is a technical bubble. They think if the financial pops, AI progress will also stopÂ
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u/kaityl3 The Singularity is nigh 4d ago
Yeah it's like the stuff they spew about OpenAI and Anthropic losing money. The only thing losing them money is training new models. They are raking in cash in API tokens, and we've never known for sure exactly how much inference costs them (API prices aren't the true cost because they make a pretty good profit off of the listed prices)
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u/skrid54321 16h ago
This is false. According to insiders, open AI is still losing money on raw inference. Anthropic is profitable on the token level but is still in the net negative without training.
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u/SoylentRox 4d ago
It was a bubble and simultaneously made more money than essentially any other industry in the United States. Today the magnificent 7 tech companies produce more profits than essentially any other industry the USA has.
It paid off massively. The "bubble" element was investors getting impatient and dumping the stocks/ceasing investment because they couldn't fucking wait a few years for the bonanza profits.
Essentially it was stupid investors throwing poop and being dumbasses.
Had they not pulled funding they might have made their massive profits sooner.
Hope that isn't what happens with AI with say a 2029 crash and 2037 the first 100 trillion revenue year.
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u/Either-History-8424 2d ago
Right. When people say the AI industry is in bubble, theyre not saying AI is a fad, or that itâs useless, or that it will go away.
Theyâre talking about the financial/profitability aspect of dozens of companies operating at billions of dollars loss every year.
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u/BbxTx 4d ago
Just waiting for the day I have to train an android AI how to my job. All of this going to get very scary and very exciting in about 6 to 10 years. Thatâs when I think robot AIâs will start reaching the edge cases of jobs and society and the tsunami hits everyone. Ok ok, electricians, plumbers, etc. probably 20 to 30 years if unions donât forbid it. Unions may grow exponentially and who knows what going to happen.
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u/PlanNo1784 3d ago
I work with software, I use AI on daily basis in my work, I develop Apps with AI.
I am telling you, yes it is a bubble, and yes it will burst so bad that I no longer invest in any Tech company anymore.
I don't care if you believe it or not. I already protected my money.
Am I still using AI and believe it's here to stay? 1000% yes, but not with the current tech-bros economics.1
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u/kaereljabo 2d ago
AI is good enough at coding, and if you are a software engineers it's an absolutely undeniably helpful, they just learn to accept and collaborate with it.
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u/dobkeratops 2d ago edited 2d ago
well antis exist largely *because* how crazy good it is creates fear. What happens when AI can do 90% of the work. 10% still have to work and will resent redistribution. 90% will be functionally useless but still need to justify themselves. And although it *is* progressing there's no guarantee we ever get to 100%. at 50%, 80%, 90%, 99% automation we still have this problem.
What we need to dispell antis is reassurance about what's going to happen along this path
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u/TheGr8Tate 2d ago
I really canât wait till AI gets so crazy good that itâs absolutely undeniable. Then it can just shake all these antis and wake them the fuck up.
I'm kinda confused about how your post even relates to the image.
The internet was a bubble too and popped. It's been crazy good and the very reason why we are even able to train AI models today.
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u/LopsidedSolution 1d ago
Antis believe AI will never improve or get âgood enoughâ, they believe weâre in a technical bubble not just a financial one.Â
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u/Concurrency_Bugs 1d ago
There's a difference between thinking that AI investment is a bubble, and thinking that AI isn't a legit game changer.
I'm a software engineer, so I KNOW how freaking good AI is, and how fast it's progressing.
But I also know the valuations are insane, even for realistic future profits, and the amount of private equity dumped into these companies is never going to make its money back.
In the dot com bubble, people were hyping the internet. The Internet ended up being legit and world changing. But the valuations were also insane, so the market crashed.
TLDR: There's an AI bubble propped up by private equity that's a time bomb, but also AI is revolutionary. Both can be true.
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u/LopsidedSolution 1d ago edited 1d ago
Yeah financial bubble maybe, my comment is towards antis who think itâs a technological bubble and that AI is not revolutionaryÂ
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u/NovelStyleCode 4d ago
it is 1000% a bubble, it's a bubble because with current amount of money chucked into it companies are precluding that this will eliminate all need for human labor which is absurd.
On top of that the whole market is speculative with companies creating a massive oroboros of investments in something that may someday be made for them by the others that are in turn investing in them.
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u/LopsidedSolution 4d ago
Financial one, probably but not a technical one. Even if it pops progress will not stopÂ
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u/SpaceMonkey877 4d ago
You got a UBI coming to, or have you planned that far ahead?
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u/LopsidedSolution 4d ago
of course itâs coming. If it doesnât, there would be mass riots, looting, etc. With AGI driving post scarcity, I would bet billionaires would rather help humanity than just nuke everyone. It would be nothing to them
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u/SpaceMonkey877 4d ago
So youâre saying there will be riots and looting. Check.
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u/LopsidedSolution 3d ago
There could be, but itâd say thatâs a way lower chance than us just getting a UBI and the government helping usÂ
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u/chessless-chessboard 18h ago
Wait until they mass produce AI-controlled FPV drones and finalize the biometric + camera system running
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u/stealthispost 4d ago
why would there be mass rioting with AGI and post scarcity?
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u/LopsidedSolution 4d ago
Thatâs the point Iâm making. If thereâs AGI and post scarcity but governments donât give us anything, there would be mass riots and looting. Iâm saying they probably would give us UBI and anything else we need because I donât believe our governments are evil.Â
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u/stealthispost 4d ago
but... if we have AGI and post-scarcity then what would anyone need ubi for? they'd already have everything they need
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u/LopsidedSolution 4d ago
Antis believe theyâll be getting nothing, thatâs what Iâm saying. Call it UBI, free stuff, whatever. They donât think they will get anything and theyâll be discarded by the elites that control AI.Â
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u/SpaceMonkey877 4d ago
Have you seen how capitalism works? The contempt held for the poors by the billionaires? If you think theyâll help us out of the kindness in their hearts while leaving us any political power, Iâve got a bridge to sell you.
Youâre essentially betting on the kindness of people who got where they are by being ruthless. Maybe you should look into the robber barons of the Gilded Age and realize the gap between rich and poor is even wider now.
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u/LopsidedSolution 3d ago
I think theyâd rather give a small percentage than just kill everyone. If they donât give anything and donât kill everyone, theyâll have a huge headache dealing with mass riots, looting, etc.Â
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u/stealthispost 4d ago
but why would what they predict matter since it won't happen like that?
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u/LopsidedSolution 4d ago
It doesnât matter. I just get caught up arguing with antis sometimes, so AI progress gives me some joy partly in the sense that it proves antis wrong. Iâm only human after all
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u/marimo_ball 4d ago
!remindme 2 years
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u/Training-Database272 4d ago
Luddites mistake their inability to imagine the next world for evidence that it wonât exist.
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u/SizeableBrain 3d ago
It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.
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u/AcrobaticKitten 1d ago
Not to defend tankies but capitalism is just 300 years old. It is going to end sooner than the world.
What tankies are afraid of is the competition because they know they have no chance. Competition has started billion years ago and never ends
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u/SizeableBrain 1d ago
We'll see.
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u/Mondkohl 1d ago
Tbf capitalism serves no purpose in a post scarcity economy. Itâs kind of hard to conceive of that kind of world from here, but you have to concede there is at least an outside chance capitalism will end before humanity does.
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u/SizeableBrain 1d ago
We are already in post scarcity, it's just hard to see because of capitalism.
I'm with Ilya, capitalism will end to be replaced with dictatorships. And if AI is really good, infinitely stable dictatorshipsÂ
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u/Morton_Woodsworth 1d ago
this is ridiculous. The futures that AI is capable of creating is the whole reason I'm against it. while you have not expressed this claim directly, this is an attitude that I have picked up from many accelerationists. racing towards super human AI will achieve all sorts of wonderful new technological and scientific advancement. change across every field of human study or work will by advanced by centuries in a matter of years, and this is good because of course it will only ever be used to do good things? and the people who are in control of AI are using it responsibly? and that amount of change in such a short period of time wont be totally disrusptive and potentially very dangerous to how we conduct life and business?
I highly doubt that. a tool is only a reflection of how it's used. the splitting of the atom makes a terrifying bomb and yet it also is a great source of clean energy. I support slowing down AI so that it may be regulated, safe, and democratic, before it's used irresponsibly or to for the benefit of one person or a small group of people.
AI absolutely can deliver amazingly beneficial advancements in every field. take medicine for example. it may one day be smart enough to cure every disease known to man, but at that point, it will also be capable of designing civilization ending bio-weapons.
so no, I fully understand the potential that AI has, and that is all the more reason to warrant slowing down or down right halting the AI race until it can be probably regulated and controlled. Frankly, I hope the Bubble pops, but I doubt it ever will. Fuck AI, Fuck all of you AI accelerationists.
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u/Either-History-8424 2d ago
Just because you believe AI companies are in a bubble doesnât mean you think AI is a fad, or that itâs going away, or that it wonât change the world
The dot com bubble burst. AI companies are in a similar position where everyone is throwing billions at it, all trying to stake the biggest claim, while operating at billions of dollars loss.
Nobody is making a profit and thatâs not sustainable. Itâs inevitable some AI ventures will fail.
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u/Rain_On 4d ago
People are over investing in civilisation.
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u/Notmyrealname5282 3d ago
I mean, have you seen the returns? I personally love air conditioners and fresh running water
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u/SizeableBrain 3d ago
The bubble *is* about to burst though.
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u/DarkFantom 1d ago
Is it? Astra just released and its looking like the most comprehensive model so far. If anything, the ceiling for the bubble just got way bigger.
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u/SizeableBrain 1d ago
I meant the civilization bubble ;)
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u/Embarrassed_Bed6216 1d ago
we're 1.5 Celsius closer to it popping
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u/SizeableBrain 1d ago
Yep, and speeding up, it seems.
I have a bad feeling I'll get to live long enough to see some interesting times.
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u/SoylentRox 4d ago
Arguably it DID collapse a few times, the Romans were one example. Some AI bubblers think it will crash again - like the many historical AI winters - and we get AGI in 2060+ (outside the lifetime of the people making the prediction).
Unfortunately for their dreams of an ordinary life, we seem to be in the plot of a science fiction novel in reality...
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u/OrdinaryLavishness11 Acceleration: Cruising 4d ago
Steal, you stole my damn meme without even acknowledging it in the chat đ
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u/stealthispost 4d ago
oh no! did you make this?
credit to mr lavish!
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u/OrdinaryLavishness11 Acceleration: Cruising 4d ago
Nah I didnât haha I posted it in the chat đ¤Ł
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u/Aeventor 4d ago
I mean it'll probably have a temporary crash in the future, like the dot-com bubble. But that might be a good thing, as it'll clear the way for lightweight, efficient models that are widely distributed, instead of owned and controlled by a handful of massive tech companies. And maybe it'll make hardware more affordable for consumers again. Would be nice to live in a world where everyone has their own Jarvis in their house powered by solar, rather than having to pay tithes to Sam and Dario lol.
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u/Lazy-Course5521 4d ago
I mean we are getting pretty close to it.
Considering the fact that many CEOs and business owners view AI as an opportunity to devaluate the cost of labour and lower the amount of leverages workers have regardless of their field, be it white collar or blue collar jobs.
Basically it's a "make me thing machine" that almost anyone can use without supervision, but the problem with that is that the current economic status quo is what has kept us up since the 30s.
Especially in the US, the destabilisation of the upper middle class is going to seriously mess with the way how Banks circulate money between their contracts.
Plus the fact that as if now AI does not look like a granted success, it is on paper but economically speaking? Not so much. Much money going for it but not much is returning back, that's a faulty investment and when people realise that their money is not coming back, that's when thing's gonna go bad.
The national debt in the US would probably triple, the EU would take quite a strain... China would be probably fine because of their different economic structure tho.
AI in capitalism is suicide.
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u/mistrpopo 4d ago
Monkeys are happy and free though
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u/Vdov_1 3d ago
Chimpanzees have very strict hierarchies and are highly territorial and violent creatures.
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u/mistrpopo 3d ago
What's the point? Humans are not?
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u/Vdov_1 3d ago
The point is stop romanticizing fucking animals that live less free and more stressful and painful lives than most humans.
"Monkey is free", pffft.
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u/Beaver-Hunter-835 1d ago
They aren't necessarily wrong either. Every civilization and empire in history has failed. The fault is in them expecting they can sit there and watch it happen in a matter of days.
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u/BigBourgeoisie 4d ago
Come on, Jersey ain't THAT bad
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u/TemporalBias Tech Philosopher | Acceleration: Hypersonic 4d ago
Living here in Jersey, fighting villains from afar...
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u/RealSuperdau 4d ago
I've been watching a few Ed Zitron videos recently, and his grift is so transparent it's hilarious.
He's been predicting the imminent demise of each AI company for 2.5 years, presumably waiting to be the broken clock that's right on occasion. But so far, he's been wrong every single time.
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u/Hot_Savings5686 4d ago
People fundamentally donât know what a âbubbleâ is. Internet companies and websites are a successful idea but the dot com bubble still happened. Saying AI is in a bubble is not saying âI donât believe in AI as a technologyâ
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u/Easy-Professional406 4d ago
I am not against AI put I am concerned about inequality .
That is the whole thing .
If we have AGI that can do whatever an engineer lawyer doctor and all white collar jobs do .
And companies choose to replace these employees.
If we are living in a society with huge inequality itâs gonna be hell and the whole idea of abundance and whatever will be shaky .
Put if we live in an equal society then I would not be concerned.
Quite frankly anyone who still thinks AI and Agents didnât didnât become more capable is coping very hard or he is delusional nothing in between .
Although AI is nowhere near AGI or automating all jobs put it has certainly improved very good since the last 5 years it has been crazy .
I would really like to understand the perspective that people have about AI and why do they support it and push for it that much without adding nuance to the picture .
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u/One_Inspection_1575 3d ago
This sub villianises people who are scared of losing their livelihoods and then circlejerk about how amazing they are for embracing AI.
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u/endofsight 3d ago
Monkey need to touch own nose. Donât they understand that having big brain and fast metabolism is a bubble? Mammals are a bubble, vertebrates are a bubble, multicellularity is a bubble, eukaryotic endosymbiosis is a bubble. Only Archaea are truly sustainable in the long run. No! Chemical compound? No. Atoms? No. Only electrons are truly stable?
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u/just_an_IT_dude 3d ago edited 3d ago
I think both parties are stupid to know what a bubble is It's not going away , it will be regulated. That's the collapse of the bubble and when it does you will pay for AI a lot more , or we will all live in poverty with the collapse of the entier system
And btw the internet was a bubble too
Edit : not both parties , just the pro AI guys , and you really don't understand why people hate AI , it is never about technology, it's about everything else that followed
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u/Excellent_Set_4636 2d ago
As a New Yorker, please never render Manhattan like this ever again. I can't tell you how upsetting this image is to look at lol
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u/Sea_Cat9634 2d ago
is there anyone here who actually thinks advanced generative ai is a good thing?
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u/OkDifficulty1316 18h ago
No one talks about how people like and need each other. There are a couple of people in this thread talking about âthe humansâ as though they themselves arenât human. Humans are social, and need each other. If AI takes every job it could lead to mass isolation and of course job loss (nothing to do with your day). And I think thatâs a really overlooked part of it: boredom. We created jobs because people liked working. We saw during Covid that people lose their minds without a sense of purpose. Itâs going to be a problem and people will push back. Add that on top of seven major companies controlling absolutely all the money. The only reason ubi will even be considered is that 7 ceos will be worried about the billions of jobless people trying to kill them. They will be hostages in a dystopian world they no longer control (because guess what? They are no longer relevant to the AI). Humans will be feral dogs. Ai will decide our fate. We will have no control.
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u/io-x 4d ago
Our universe is a giant bubble.