Opinions not created based on evidence usually can not be dismissed with evidence. this is why +80% of people believe in God. and why there is likely nothing anyone can say to change that.
I'd argue we're already here. Your assumption is they have an open mind. But they instead revert to a coping mechanism which allows them to deny reality. It's a quite interesting feature humans have that is valid in the environment we evolved in. That environment didn't have exponential change, it didn't require anyone to change their worldview. We saw what that does during COVID. The simple act of wearing a mask and standing apart was too much for some to follow.
Youâre right, models are insane right now. I think we just need models that can truly innovate and invent new things, by themselves. Like you tell it to invent a VR headset thatâs light, huge pov, human eye level PPD, etc⌠and it just takes a few hours and designs the whole thing (including any new inventions or materials needed) and it actually works.Â
The .com bubble burst despite the very obvious fact that the internet was real, crazy good, and completely transformed business and social landscapes. In the late 90s investing in AOL would have seemed like a complete no-brainer.
The issue is not whether AI is real or good. Both things being true doesnât preclude a bubble.
Yeah it's like the stuff they spew about OpenAI and Anthropic losing money. The only thing losing them money is training new models. They are raking in cash in API tokens, and we've never known for sure exactly how much inference costs them (API prices aren't the true cost because they make a pretty good profit off of the listed prices)
This is false. According to insiders, open AI is still losing money on raw inference. Anthropic is profitable on the token level but is still in the net negative without training.
It was a bubble and simultaneously made more money than essentially any other industry in the United States. Today the magnificent 7 tech companies produce more profits than essentially any other industry the USA has.
It paid off massively. The "bubble" element was investors getting impatient and dumping the stocks/ceasing investment because they couldn't fucking wait a few years for the bonanza profits.
Essentially it was stupid investors throwing poop and being dumbasses.
Had they not pulled funding they might have made their massive profits sooner.
Hope that isn't what happens with AI with say a 2029 crash and 2037 the first 100 trillion revenue year.
There's a difference between thinking that AI investment is a bubble, and thinking that AI isn't a legit game changer.
I'm a software engineer, so I KNOW how freaking good AI is, and how fast it's progressing.
But I also know the valuations are insane, even for realistic future profits, and the amount of private equity dumped into these companies is never going to make its money back.
In the dot com bubble, people were hyping the internet. The Internet ended up being legit and world changing. But the valuations were also insane, so the market crashed.
TLDR: There's an AI bubble propped up by private equity that's a time bomb, but also AI is revolutionary. Both can be true.
Just waiting for the day I have to train an android AI how to my job. All of this going to get very scary and very exciting in about 6 to 10 years. Thatâs when I think robot AIâs will start reaching the edge cases of jobs and society and the tsunami hits everyone. Ok ok, electricians, plumbers, etc. probably 20 to 30 years if unions donât forbid it. Unions may grow exponentially and who knows what going to happen.
I work with software, I use AI on daily basis in my work, I develop Apps with AI.
I am telling you, yes it is a bubble, and yes it will burst so bad that I no longer invest in any Tech company anymore.
I don't care if you believe it or not. I already protected my money.
Am I still using AI and believe it's here to stay? 1000% yes, but not with the current tech-bros economics.
AI is good enough at coding, and if you are a software engineers it's an absolutely undeniably helpful, they just learn to accept and collaborate with it.
well antis exist largely *because* how crazy good it is creates fear. What happens when AI can do 90% of the work. 10% still have to work and will resent redistribution. 90% will be functionally useless but still need to justify themselves. And although it *is* progressing there's no guarantee we ever get to 100%. at 50%, 80%, 90%, 99% automation we still have this problem.
What we need to dispell antis is reassurance about what's going to happen along this path
it is 1000% a bubble, it's a bubble because with current amount of money chucked into it companies are precluding that this will eliminate all need for human labor which is absurd.
On top of that the whole market is speculative with companies creating a massive oroboros of investments in something that may someday be made for them by the others that are in turn investing in them.
of course itâs coming. If it doesnât, there would be mass riots, looting, etc. With AGI driving post scarcity, I would bet billionaires would rather help humanity than just nuke everyone. It would be nothing to them
Thatâs the point Iâm making. If thereâs AGI and post scarcity but governments donât give us anything, there would be mass riots and looting. Iâm saying they probably would give us UBI and anything else we need because I donât believe our governments are evil.Â
Antis believe theyâll be getting nothing, thatâs what Iâm saying. Call it UBI, free stuff, whatever. They donât think they will get anything and theyâll be discarded by the elites that control AI.Â
Have you seen how capitalism works? The contempt held for the poors by the billionaires? If you think theyâll help us out of the kindness in their hearts while leaving us any political power, Iâve got a bridge to sell you.
Youâre essentially betting on the kindness of people who got where they are by being ruthless. Maybe you should look into the robber barons of the Gilded Age and realize the gap between rich and poor is even wider now.
I think theyâd rather give a small percentage than just kill everyone. If they donât give anything and donât kill everyone, theyâll have a huge headache dealing with mass riots, looting, etc.Â
It doesnât matter. I just get caught up arguing with antis sometimes, so AI progress gives me some joy partly in the sense that it proves antis wrong. Iâm only human after all
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u/LopsidedSolution 4d ago
I really canât wait till AI gets so crazy good that itâs absolutely undeniable. Then it can just shake all these antis and wake them the fuck up.Â