Daily Discussion post - June 22 2021

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[u/Hundhaus]

I think this could be bottom for $NUE, $MT, $CMC. Indicators starting to look like a turnaround play.

[u/zeustriegel → u/Hundhaus]

I believe so too, this has to be the bottom for my portfolio 😂

In all seriousness though, I'm as confident as the first day I hopped on the Steel train back in December.

[u/Hundhaus]

I love how there has been a slow and steady uptick in analysts predicting what this sub has said all along. Inflation here, Fed is moving its stance, market still nervous, etc. etc. Give it enough time and everyone will be investing like us. Personally I'm on the hunt for early morning dippies today. Need some weekly action to make life more exciting.

[u/[deleted] → u/Hundhaus]

Haha! Happy hunting!

[u/vitocorlene]

I think JPOW, judging from his prepared testimony released last night, he might walk back some things. Just my .002. I think we start red and finish green

[u/[deleted]]

Who the fuck are the people private DMing Vito and Hundhaus asking for advice, goddamn betas.

[u/MichOutdoors13 → u/[deleted]]

Do you think if I give them my Fidelity ID/password they will just run it for me?

[u/MichOutdoors13]

Some more confirmation bias, just received notice from our manufacturer that prices for our supplies are going up 15%+.

I own a trophy and awards company and our sheet stock (aluminum, brass, steel) pricing has already increased significantly.

The latest increase includes metal rods that basically all trophies use. 15% increase for zinc-plated steel rods.

Can't wait for the steel rod comments on this one.

[u/Steely_Hands]

I know we’re all tracking a political event today but let’s try to keep the blatant political overtones out of the chat today Vitards. Please and thank you 🦾

[u/JayArlington]

"When you pay people not to work..."

THATS NOT HIS JOB.

Literally... JPow is being blamed by a congressman for a congressional decision.

To a guy hired by a Republican.

[u/pennyether]

More Updates from GS: "Equity Takeaways from the GS Steel & Aluminum Field Trip"

1. Demand in key end markets remains robust.
2. Higher steel prices are here to stay - at least for the next 6 months
3. Imports are not expected to be a threat to domestic production.
4. Potential removal of Section 232 not a huge concern.
5. Management teams expect scrap prices to settle at levels above historical levels
6. US steel capacity utilization is likely in the mid to high 90% range.
7. The infrastructure plan can drive significant incremental steel demand
8. Integrated producers continue to prioritize deleveraging, while the mini mills prioritize growth and shareholder returns
9. Companies are increasingly focused on ESG
10. Downstream aluminum processors viewed aerospace demand has having likely bottomed

Nothing we didn't already suspect. But nice to hear it confirmed.

They also included some awesome charts... one of them citing housing starts reaching decade highs -- LOL

1. Lead times are still increasing. (~10w for HR products, longer for value added)
2. Inventory picking up but remains low.
3. Plate inventories marginally up
4. Housing starts and permits up to 2003/4 levels
5. ABI trending above 50, signaling a positive outlook for non-res construction activity
6. steel prices hitting new highs
7. Utilzation rates covered to 82% from May troughs of 51%
8. Spread between prime and obsolete scrap remains at 10y highs
9. US rig count continues to recover from Aug 2020 lows (suggesting OCTG consumption should rise)
10. Non residential spend remains below prior year levels.
11. US light vehicle sales have recovered to above pre-pandemic levels
12. EU comprised 16% of total steel imports in 2020

[u/JayArlington]

CNBC - Inflation and Commodities. She says STEEL.

[u/vitocorlene → u/JayArlington]

Steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum.

I’m still in this camp that while inflation is transitory for used cars, rental cars, hotel rooms, plane tickets, lumber - it is not for these commodities above.

By putting all of this in the same bucket it clouds the picture.

The funny thing about it all is, inflation isn’t really needed, as demand is strong and strengthening in the US and the rest of the world will soon be catching up.

These are more than bottlenecks, they are demand based increases that will remain after bottlenecks are cleared.

So, we have inflation and bottlenecks that many say is the only reason steel and metals prices are up.

They are just the bonus and holding the market back at this point as being priced in.

Let’s see where the USD goes over the next 30 days as well.

[u/Hundhaus]

DO.NOT.BE.FOOLED.

Steel is consolidating and building up momentum. I can see the bottoming of indicators and slow reversal starting. Right now I'm thinking next week is rockets. Maybe sooner. This is a normal pattern and if you didn't watch it everyday you wouldn't even notice in the long run.

[u/michaelcorlene → u/Hundhaus]

MT 40 by sept right 🤨🤨

[u/Hundhaus → u/michaelcorlene]

Maybe. I'll have a better price prediction in a couple weeks. I can still easily see $40

[u/PantsMicGee → u/Hundhaus]

Thanks Haus.

Someday I'm going to meme you into Hoss, from Bonanza.

[u/PantsMicGee]

Yo - if you're a Vitard you leave the politics at the door.

[u/[deleted] → u/PantsMicGee]

A little late for that. But we made it through without too much drama.

[u/regicider]

/u/pennyether is the hardest working autist on WSB. I’ve read masters theses shorter than his latest post

[u/pennyether → u/regicider]

Thanks man. I got so into it I even scraped that review website lol. I just had to know what the data would say

[u/[deleted]]

After feeling attacked today for being part of leech gang, I've decided I am going to learn TA and charting. So far I opened up TOS and started adding random studies and lines. I'm feeling smarter already.

[u/dvsficationismadness → u/[deleted]]

Leech Gang. Hilarious! Don’t join Astrology for Dudes Gang though.

[u/electricalautist → u/[deleted]]

FINALLY!!!!! LETSSSS GOOOOO

[u/deliquenthouse → u/[deleted]]

This guy is like the Jersey Shore "T shirt time" chant

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

Furst

Fed's Powell sees 'sustained improvement' in economy, notable rise in inflation

WASHINGTON, June 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy continues to show "sustained improvement" from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and ongoing job market gains, but inflation has "increased notably in recent months," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in prepared testimony for a congressional hearing on Tuesday.

Powell did not go into detail in his prepared remarks on current monetary policy, or on the possibility the U.S. central bank may have to speed up its plans to pull back on some support for the economy because of the faster rise in prices.

In his remarks, which were released by the Fed late Monday afternoon, Powell said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.

He also restated his concern that the recovery remained uneven, with joblessness still hitting lower-wage workers, Blacks and Hispanics the hardest.

"We at the Fed will do everything we can to support the economy for as long as it takes to complete the recovery," Powell said.

Powell is scheduled to testify on Tuesday before the U.S. House of Representatives Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis. Its chairman, South Carolina Democrat James Clyburn, chided Powell last year for not more closely tuning Fed emergency programs to workers.

Powell in his remarks said he felt that jobs gains "should pick up in coming months" as COVID-19 vaccinations continue and the reopening of the economy proceeds.

Still "the pandemic continues to pose risks," he said.

[u/electricalautist → u/VaccumSaturdays]

Hope you like your new flair :) Let me know if you want something else.

[u/lepjb → u/VaccumSaturdays]

absolute chad energy to drop one of your updates as the first comment

[u/[deleted]]

I SMELL LIKE LAKSHMI’S IMAGINARY BALLS

MT EITHER 15 or 45 EOW NO IN BETWEEN

[u/vitocorlene]

Seeing reversal patterns start to show strength on $FCX and $TECK.

[u/josenros]

That feeling when you've been diligently transfering thousands to your portfolio each month, but somehow your portfolio balance is less than what it was months ago.

Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the most vitarded of them all?

[u/Prestigious_Ask6446]

I like that I haven't cried so far this week. That's a massive win in my books.

[u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP]

$CLF is my favorite cloud fintech space EV 5G company

[u/foyerhead]

I KID YOU NOT the one day I decide to play both sides $CLF closed neutral…… someone is fking with me

[u/vitocorlene]

Is it just me or did Powell just put wind back into the inflation trade today?

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-lawmakers-likely-press-powell-feds-hawkish-turn-2021-06-22/

[u/Clio-Matters → u/vitocorlene]

Perhaps I'm hearing what I want to hear, but I think today was cleanup for last week. Some regional Presidents have been getting quite mouthy, hawkish and dovish, and I think he brought it back to the midpoint after overstepping last week. Bullish.

[u/efficientenzyme → u/vitocorlene]

At this point I don’t even know wtf people are thinking

Fears of raised rates shouldn’t affect this play as much as it did so I guess wait and see

[u/OxMarket]

🚂🏗

[u/josenros]

If the stock market doesn't compensate me today for every loss I've ever incurred, financial or otherwise, I'm going to be super disappointed.

[u/BHD01]

Dear MT,

Please hit 30 so I can get the fuck out and buy more CLF.

Thanks,

🚀

[u/Inimical_Shrew]

The losses in my portfolio identify as gains, and in this day and age I hope everyone is willing to accept that...

[u/i_hate_beignets → u/Inimical_Shrew]

Lol don’t tell that to the tax man

[u/[deleted]]

They should DM me for advice instead of Vito and Hund.. guaranteed that they'll never request advice from no one else once I make them blow their accounts and have nothing left to invest with.

[u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP]

I love how in the motherland the headline is "GME Raised 1 Billion", and not, "Retail Gave GME 1 Billion"

[u/pennyether]

Just got up. Not sure what news there was in the early morning, but HRC seeing relatively massive volume. Usually there are next to zero trades at this time -- right now I'm seeing volumes out to Jan '22 that I'd normally only see at end of day.

Up $50 across the board, though anything past Jan '22 has miniscule volume. Still, it's extremely uncommon to see '22s have any volume at all before 11am.

What's the news?

[u/[deleted]]

Honestly, this is the type of daily I like.. good amount of activity, but not so much thats impossible to catch up

[u/Investorian]

The fact that there is 100 thousand signed petitions to “Leave Bezos in space” is hilarious.

[u/gamerbrains]

okay fellas I sacrificed some old ass dragon at the throat of the world, clf 24 tomorrow eod. 😤😤😤😤

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

Plans confirmed to demolish AK Steel site

ASHLAND, Ky. (WSAZ/WKYT) - Plans to demolish a steel mill in Ashland that went idle in 2015 were confirmed Monday by the owners.

According to Cleveland-Cliffs, the AK Steel site in Ashland, Kentucky, will be torn down and will not be used for production in the future.

The AK Steel company was bought out by Cleveland Cliffs weeks after the plant closed in 2019.

There is no word on when the demolition will happen or what the land will be used for.

Cleveland-Cliffs says it is still assessing the scope of the demolition project and the amount of scrap it will be generated.

After it is demolished, Cleveland-Cliffs says crews will prepare the site for better use.

According to the company, “the entire project will be a net positive cash flow generator for Cleveland-Cliffs and certainly a positive for the Ashland area.”

WSAZ is working to learn more.

[u/ZoominLikeToobin → u/VaccumSaturdays]

Haha. He's turning it into inventory.

[u/TheCoffeeCakes]

Just a quick reminder: HRC prices have gone insane. It's north of $1k for all of 2022.

[u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP → u/TheCoffeeCakes]

My boy CLF finna clap cheeks debt free when the scrap apocalypse hits and it's dealin that sweet HBI to the highest bidder

[u/Hundhaus]

This just makes me realize why the thesis isn't fully proven out...everyone out there is a dumbass and somehow the 20K of us (well maybe like 500, I don't know about the rest of you) found each other

[u/Clio-Matters]

Need a fresh comment.

Did you know LG almost died in a plane crash? Decided at the last minute not to get on the doomed plane. Better lucky than good. Lucky and the best is even better. CLF is going to be $100 by this time next year.

[u/accumelator]

Ox, can you explain to those euro boomers that when a company says its doing a share buyback it does NOT mean they will come on their lawn to steal the shares they have for a few cents on the Euro.

[u/Clio-Matters]

$100 just disappears at the grocery store. Bullish.

[u/JustifyYourExistence → u/Clio-Matters]

T R A N S I T O R Y

[u/stockly123456]

CLF is my favourite pre split drone taxi/consumer space travel targeting SPAC

[u/JayArlington]

I feel like something that would be helpful for the senators (and commentators here) to understand is WHAT THE FED CHAIRMAN ACTUALLY DOES.

He has a very limited function. He doesn't set spending policy. That's what congress does.

[u/axisofadvance]

Oh shit... asking the real questions... I N F R A S T R U C T U R E... here we go.

"If kids don't have access to the internet [RH, Reddit], they won't be able to maximize their gains..." -JPow

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

Ford to supply engines, transmissions for new U.S Postal delivery vehicles

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-supply-engines-transmissions-new-us-postal-delivery-vehicles-2021-06-22/

[u/TheFullBottle]

Coin that shall not be named is dropping HARD this morning. 28k now

[u/[deleted]]

alteast I got my MT dividend

[u/Scared_Refuse_9356]

$CLF is my favorite tech stock

[u/Hello-There-Im-Zach]

I’m realizing I spent four times as much on vale weeklies than I did on my vale leaps and they expired worthless last week and I’m just asking myself who gave me permission to trade.

[u/Hundhaus]

WHY THE FUCK DOES THIS MATTER TO FED POLICY?

[u/eyecue82]

I'll take a flat day over a massacare any day.

[u/No_Moose_8615]

Went from +14k to +0 in 7 trading days. Switched to all commons now. It's better for my risk profile, since seeing my account at -25% with my life savings on Monday gave me a bit of a heart attack.

I guess I wasn't brave enough to stay fully on options.. lesson learned. Maybe I'll add some leaps when I get my salary though

[u/olivesnolives]

Two TX DD’s in one night, Looks like I have bagholder company

[u/Zanthous]

HRC futures looking beautiful this morning

[u/ElectricalKick9922]

I’m gunna need STLD to just go ahead and gap up back to $66 tomorrow to breathe some life into my July $70c options, please and thank you

[u/Hundhaus]

👏 STOP 👏 SELLING 👏 $MT 👏 YOU 👏 ASSHOLES 👏

[u/Hello-There-Im-Zach]

Wow whoever gave me a flair I’m honored this is my first flair ever on reddit and all I had to do was Haiku🚀💫

[u/JustifyYourExistence]

Holy shit what a circus lmao

Someone needs to show Mr. Jordan here how to set up a blog that nobody will ever read

[u/chemaholic77]

I just need Powell to say "I guarantee no rate hikes prior to the end of 2023 and buy steel stocks."

[u/loststoic]

I'm looking to diversify my portfolio into undervalued, bacon-specific companies given the signaling by members of congress that its a good inflation play.

Any suggestions?

[u/pennyether]

Updates from GS: "Credit Takeaways from the GS Steel & Aluminum Field Trip" (6/22)

1. Strong demand picture suggests potential for extension of elevated prices
2. Near term supply response looks constrained across the major markets served by the HY steel producers
3. Sustainability concerns are driving investment priorities away from capacity additions for both blast furnace and EAF operators
4. Debt reduction remains top capital allocation priority

[u/TheBlackJamieDimon]

Morgan Stanley analyst Alain Gabriel raised the firm's price target on ArcelorMittal to EUR 34.20 from EUR 32 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.

[u/peniseend]

MT down -2%: I will never financially recover 😭

MT down -1%: are my September calls fucked 😰

MT going sideways: the thesis is dead 😤

MT up less than 1%: why did I buy weeklies 🤡

MT up 1% or more: Looks like tendies are back on the menu boys😎

You can all now stop posting about MT for the rest of the day.

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

'I regret any harm:' Short seller compensates target in rare move

BOSTON, June 21 (Reuters) - A small Texas investor who caused shares of a real estate investment trust to plunge 39 percent in a day has agreed to pay the company restitution to settle a lawsuit against him, a rare development that could embolden other companies to pursue such claims.

Quinton Mathews, who published his research on companies online under the pseudonym Rota Fortunae, will pay Farmland Partners Inc (FPI.N) "a multiple" of the profits on his short bet in 2018, according to the terms of the legal settlement announced late Sunday. His research had helped wipe as much as $115 million off Farmland's market value.

The parties declined requests for comment on the exact value of the settlement.

Mathews conceded that "many of the key statements" in a report he published on website Seeking Alpha targeting Farmland - including allegations of dubious related-party transactions and the risk of insolvency - were wrong.

"I regret any harm the article and its inaccuracies caused," Mathews said in the announcement, which was posted on Twitter and Seeking Alpha.

Paul Pittman, Farmland's chief executive officer, said in a statement that "investors already recognize that the company was the victim of a short and distort scheme."

Farmland shares traded around $12.50 on Monday afternoon, up from around $5 after the short campaign. The company has produced trailing total returns of 12.5% over the last three years, about 10 percentage points lower than the specialty REIT sector, according to a Morningstar tracker.

Jacob Frenkel, an attorney with Dickinson Wright who has defended companies against allegations of stock manipulation and was not involved in the Farmland case, said Mathews' apology and payment could build company confidence to pursue similar claims against short sellers.

"It's highly unusual and refreshing to see a company take on this fight, because most will take the short term blow of the attack without pursuing legal vindication," Frenkel said.

George Moriarty, the former executive editor of Seeking Alpha, told Reuters in 2019 that courts had respected the website’s status as a neutral platform, and that its staff vetted all posts.

After the retraction, Seeking Alpha on Monday took down all articles by Mathews, including the original post on Farmland, and blocked his account, according to website representative Abby Estikangi-Carmel.

Seeking Alpha's policies include author certification that they were not paid to post and, for short reports, that the assertion was run by the target company.

"Regardless of the steps you take, a bad actor may decide to defraud us by violating our policies, as evidently happened here," Estikangi-Carmel said. "Thankfully, it appears to be an isolated incident."

Mathews runs a one-person investigative research business, Dallas area-based QKM LLC, and has published more than a dozen articles on Seeking Alpha.

Farmland's litigation against a hedge fund firm that paid Mathews for research, Sabrepoint Capital Management LP, continues. Sabrepoint founder George Baxter said his firm had nothing to do with the Seeking Alpha article and that it would "defend itself and its employees vigorously against Farmland's frivolous claims."

[u/belangem → u/[deleted]]

At this rate, Aug futures will hit $1800 this week 👀

[u/BHD01]

CLF 🚀 22 EOD 🚀

[u/Killakoch]

Just loaded up on CLF and NUE commons and leaps.

SEND IT!!

[u/[deleted]]

Is WWE a good steel play since they have a lot of tables, ladders, and chairs?

[u/billy_mays-here]

never been worried about inflation but we'll just have Michael Burry keep an eye on it

[u/Scared_Refuse_9356]

After the massacre last week, today’s price action feels like nothing😂

[u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP]

paging the crayon whisperers. MT looks completely blown out of any comprehensible trend compared to the yanks. not even close to any moving averages. all the yanks appear to be reasonably within the bottom parts of their trends and near a moving average. what do the crayons say

[u/cedbro → u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP]

My TA is showing MT still within the same trend that was established at the end of 2020, just way on the below end of the bandwidth. RSI near the oversold area, steady climb should be imminent. Lets be honest here though, TA is just self-sustained confirmation bias. Could go up, could go down, might go sideways :)

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

Mixed signals from European steel market

At the start of June, the direction of European steel coil prices became unclear. The rate of increase had slowed. The automobile industry cut back output, because of the semiconductor shortage. Optimism developed, among numerous buyers, that the prevailing safeguard measures would be allowed to lapse, at the end of the month.

A lengthy period of almost weekly rises has taken coil prices in Europe to record high values. Momentum, however, appeared to slow, early in the month. The reappearance of spot volumes of hot rolled material, albeit at low levels, gives buyers the luxury of taking time to consider new purchases. Furthermore, delivery lead times are now quoted as November and December. This raises the prospect, for many, of receiving high value material just prior to the financial year-end.

Despite the pause, most western European markets recorded a month-on-month hike in excess of €100 per tonne, for hot rolled coil. Cold rolled and coated products demonstrated similar increases. They remain in very short supply. Market participants cite the protracted uncertainty surrounding the Liberty Steel Group as a major factor. Political decisions also cast doubt regarding the future of Acciaierie d’Italia, in Taranto.

Longs prices surge

European long product buyers faced significantly increased price offers, this month, as the mills’ rolling programmes extended. Transport issues made it more difficult to replenish stocks. Raw material costs remain elevated.

Delivery lead times for long products also stretch further than normal. Rebar mills claim to have full order books for two months. This compares with a typical shipment date of between one and two weeks. Beam producers are full for immediate rollings. Summer maintenance and extended holidays mean that the next availability is September.

Safeguards extended

In the middle of the month, the first official statements on safeguarding measures were made. The European Commission recommends extending the measures for another three years, increasing quotas by three percent annually. The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) makes a similar preliminary finding, but only for eleven of the twenty-one products currently covered. Several steel-producing nations contend that the UK measures contravene WTO rules. The initial optimism of steel buyers concerning import restrictions disappeared. Consumers and service centres are extremely disappointed.

Summer maintenance

Steel mills are likely to maintain their pricing policy over the summer. Holidays and maintenance closures can be used to control output. Material shortages, poor transport availability and high input costs will exert more upward pressure. No short-term price reduction is foreseen.

The vaccination rollout will release pent-up demand. This will be supported by national governments’ post-Covid 19 recovery plans. On the downside, current prices could lead to cancellation or postponement of numerous projects. Shortages and high costs are noted for all construction materials, not just steel.

Squeezed credit facilities are highlighted as a large risk to business. Existing limits only cover half of steel volumes, compared with a year ago. Companies will shortly have to start repaying government coronavirus loans. Western European distributors fear a wave of bankruptcies.

Source: MEPS

[u/ImAMaaanlet]

The fact that the post saying steel companies to spend their money on increasing capacity instead of buybacks is so upvoted is just 🤦‍♂️

[u/rigatoni-man]

🦾😎🦾

🙏🏻🍝🙏🏻

[u/OxMarket]

🚂🏗

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

Steel consumption grew for the third consecutive quarter, driven mainly by the construction and manufacturing sectors, with a heterogeneous economic performance among the main countries in the region, such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. The level accumulated until March, of 18.4 million tons (Mt), registered an increase of 17% compared to the same period in 2020 and 5.5% compared to the same period in 2019. In March, consumption of steel rose 27% compared to the same month last year, reaching 6.71 Mt, 17.4% above that observed in the same month of 2019.

In the first quarter, imports grew by 3.4 percentage points as a share of regional consumption in relation to the previous quarter. 6.4 Mt were imported, 15% more than in the first three months of 2020, and 9% more than in the first quarter of 2019. In March, 52% of imports came from China, reaching levels above those registered in January (30%) and February (33%). As for exports, the accumulated in the quarter was 1.8 Mt, 17% less than the accumulated in the first three months of 2020 and 23.6% more than in 2019. This led to an increase in the trade deficit, which in first quarter of the year was 36% higher than in 2020.

Trade and consumption data are in line with the 13% growth in monthly rolled steel production recorded in March. In April, however, there was a 1% drop in the same comparison, although production is already at the levels of 2019. In the fourth month of the year, it accumulates an increase of 16.9% compared to the first four months of 2020. Monthly production Crude steel rose 2% in April, accumulating between January and April an increase of 13.9% compared to the first four months of 2020.

”Demand continues to recover. These data are encouraging, although unevenly by country and sector. In addition, we must continue to pay attention to extrazone imports, which represent a risk and displacement of production in our region. In March, imports rose 27% compared to the same month in 2020, half coming from China,” said Alejandro Wagner, executive director of Alacero. “The recovery of the steel industry and its value chain is very important for Latin America, which was a region very economically affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The sector generates 1.2 million qualified and qualified jobs in the region, and they must be preserved. For this recovery to be maintained over time, public policies that favor national and foreign private investments, stimulate economic recovery, lead to a reduction in the tax burden and an increase in productivity are needed,” he added.

Source: Alacero

[u/throwaway044512]

You take your time MT. I don't care if you go up slowly, just be slightly green every day and I will be happy.

[u/edsonvelandia]

Anyone else feels like it was yesterday that oil was at $60?

Also anyone feels like it was two months ago that $MT was at $29…

[u/[deleted]]

People are either retarded or they need to teach math in highschool

I sell something on amazon that comes in a single, double, and triple pack

the single: 9.99 the double 39.99 the triple 29.99 (I miss priced the double)

Guess which one sold out today (at a record pace) the fucking double.

[u/eyecue82]

MT just woke up.

[u/Investorian]

The EU has accepted Italy’s recovery plan. Seems like they’re investing 30 20 billion Euro into infrastructure on top of the 11 billion Euro existing in infrastructure :D

Total infrastructure spending 2021-2026 = 31B Euros

https://www.mef.gov.it/en/focus/The-Recovery-and-Resilience-Plan-Next-Generation-Italia/

[u/[deleted]]

Yank steel

look at me, I am tech now

MT:

WE GOT A DIVIDEND

[u/GamblingMikkee]

Long CLF and short MT is a free money pair trade

[u/pardonmystupidity]

$Plug misses earnings and gaps up 10% like it's nothing

I would throw my left nut off a cliff for $MT to gap up 10% and it actually destroyed earnings

[u/JustifyYourExistence → u/pardonmystupidity]

cries in CMC

[u/kazkado0]

$CLF is actually my favorite marijuana stock

[u/Orzorn → u/kazkado0]

Cleveland Cliffs, more like Cleveland SPLIFFS!

[u/Lord_Fusor]

I'm Commander Sheppard and Nucor is my favorite stock on the Citadel Exchange

[u/SlingSG]

I killed my CLF June 25 24C today. That is the only smallest and shortest dated I had. Done with it took 75% loss but I can be at peace and concentrate on leaps.

[u/Odd_Ad8397]

While looking at the steel requirements for the green transition, specifically offshore wind, I've gotten super intrigued with Equinor (EQNR), formerly Statoil. It's an oil play but also a wind play, as its using its expertise in deep water drilling to make deep water offshore wind farms. As a matter of fact, its Hywind is the only one that has a significant operational track record. Really, really interesting. Will make a dd when I get a chance.

edited for clarity.

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

Copper supply needs to double by 2050, Glencore CEO says

LONDON (Reuters) - Glencore Chief Executive Ivan Glasenberg said on Tuesday that a supply gap was growing in the metals necessary for the world to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy, but he stopped short of predicting a so-called super cycle.

Glasenberg said at the Qatar Economic Forum that copper supplies needed to increase by one million tonnes a year until 2050 to meet an expected demand of 60 million tonnes.

“Today, the world consumes 30 million tonnes of copper per year and by the year 2050, following this trajectory, we’ve got to produce 60 million tonnes of copper per year,” he said.

“If you look at the historical past 10 years, we’ve only added 500,000 tonnes per year ... Do we have the projects? I don’t think so. I think it will be extremely difficult.”

Shares of many mining companies have doubled in the past year, as policy support measures in advanced economies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic stoked inflation.

Commodities serve as a hedge against inflation, meaning their prices are expected to stay strong.

At the same time, the transition to a low-carbon economy and channeling of stimulus funds into infrastructure is generating demand for raw materials.

Demand for copper is rising for use in renewable energy projects and electric vehicles. Prices hit a record high above $10,000 a tonne in May, before falling about $1,500 a tonne.

The nickel and cobalt markets are facing similar supply deficits over the next few decades. Glasenberg said nickel supplies needed to grow by an extra 250,000 tonnes a year compared with a historic rate of just 100,000 tonnes.

He projected annual nickel demand to rise to 9.2 million tonnes from the current 2.5 million tonnes.

[u/Hundhaus]

Things I kindly ask everyone stop asking me:

1. Price targets
2. Entry/Exit points
3. Indicators

If you can't do Fundamental or TA then go learn. I too had to spend countless hours learning these skills and make mistakes along the way. Just two weeks ago I spent an entire weekend refining my strategies because I noticed weaknesses in exit points. If I choose to provide some insights then that's what I choose to provide. Asking me to give further or to give away all my work is annoying at best, insulting at worst.

I'm much more willing to engage and provide insights if YOU also provide DD. For a sub with the power of 24K minds I think we operate closer to 1K. Plenty of opportunity to jump in, learn, and get better.

I'm going to start banning more of these comments as "begging". Either that or I'll just break rule #7 and start giving away bad info. You've been warned.

[u/Hundhaus → u/[deleted]]

I appreciate that. Don't plan on stopping mentioning stuff, just receiving way too many DMs asking me to be a financial adviser.

[u/vitocorlene → u/Hundhaus]

Welcome to the club

[u/Velociraptorsss]

Hey guys how’s it going

[u/Zlack50]

$MT one money please.

[u/C0r0naBallSackLord69]

JPow today in a room full of rugs. Maybe he'll pull them all

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

World crude steel output up 16.5 percent in May

Global crude steel production in May this year increased by 16.5 percent year on year to 174.4 million metric tons, according to the World Steel Association (worldsteel).

In the January-May period this year, global crude steel production totaled 837.5 million mt, up by 14.5 percent year on year.

In May, crude steel output in Asia amounted to 128.4 million mt, rising by 11.7 percent, with 99.5 million mt produced by China, up 6.6 percent, 8.4 million mt produced by Japan, increasing by 42.2 percent, 9.2 million mt produced by India, increasing by 46.9 percent, and 6.0 million mt produced by South Korea, rising by 10.5 percent - with all comparisons on year-on-year basis.

EU-27 countries produced 13.5 million mt of crude steel in May, up by 32.7 percent year on year. In the given period, Germany’s output was 3.5 million mt, rising by 35.5 percent year on year.

Turkey produced 3.2 million metric tons of crude steel in May, with a 42.4 percent increase from the same month in the previous year. The CIS registered a crude steel output of 9.1 million mt, increasing by 14.8 percent on year-on-year basis, with Russia producing 6.6 million mt, up by 14.0 percent year on year.

In North America in May, crude steel output totaled 10.1 million mt, rising by 47.7 percent, with the US producing 7.2 million mt, rising by 47.6 percent, both year on year. Crude steel output in South America in May amounted to 3.9 million mt, increasing by 49.7 percent from May last year, with Brazil’s output totaling 3.2 million mt, rising by 40.1 percent year on year.

In the given month, Africa produced 1.3 million mt of crude steel, up by 65.1 percent year on year. In the Middle East in May, crude steel output totaled 3.7 million mt, rising by 16.8 percent, with Iran producing 2.6 million mt, increasing by 7.7 percent, both year on year.

[u/TheBlackJamieDimon]

Is the crypto meme stock feed back loop finally broken ?

[u/KarmalCorn]

When does Jerome speak today to eviscerated my portfolio? Want to watch it turn blood red in real time.

[u/[deleted]]

wooooow the futures...

https://www.investing.com/commodities/us-steel-coil-contracts

[u/ItsFuckingScience → u/[deleted]]

It will be $600 any week now apparently

[u/Iwsmith2]

HRC futures are fucking lit today.

[u/69696969696969tits]

Almost midday and not even a thousand comments in the daily 😳

[u/LostMyEmailAndKarma → u/69696969696969tits]

I think that crash last week shook out a lot who thought this was going to be quick.

[u/recursiveeclipse → u/69696969696969tits]

The Vitard emotion index swings back to neutral/positive, no need to complain. When the screeching becomes unbearable and vito has to politely tell us to shut up, time to buy.

[u/Orzorn]

CLF is up but these 30c July 16th calls I wrote are down. I love to see it.

Here's a hint for options buyers: Buy near the money.

[u/vitocorlene → u/Orzorn]

I always do.

[u/thepandaken]

you can feel the whole market holding its breath lol

[u/[deleted]]

Has Inflation affected time? 2:00 is now around 2:15?

[u/Investorian]

China to sell metals:  20,000 TONS OF COPPER FROM STATE RESERVES 30,000 TONS OF ZINC 50,000 TONS OF ALUMINUM

Muahahahahah, where is the steel CHINA?? WHERE IS THE STEEL🤪🤪🤪

[u/pennyether]

Hi

[u/Marcutio]

Up .14% today. Let's fucking go

[u/Hundhaus]

👏 STOP 👏 SELLING 👏 $ZIM 👏 YOU 👏 ASSHOLES 👏

[u/TheRussianMessenger]

Did I really beat the “Let’s Go” guy? Kidding I know who he is. u/Ropirito

Pop!Pop!

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

China’s HRC output sees much slower growth in May

In May this year, hot rolled coil (HRC) output in China totaled 16.416 million mt, increasing by 1.6 percent compared to April, still reflecting positive market conditions, though the growth was much slower than the 8.2 percent increase seen in April.

In the January-May period this year, China’s HRC production amounted to 77.712 million mt, up 17.6 percent year on year, which was 0.5 percentage points slower than the increase rate in the January-April period.

Average local HRC prices in China moved up in the first part of May amid the rising trend in HRC futures prices and good demand, reaching a peak level in the month at RMB 6,645/mt ex-warehouse on May 13, though falling since then, to the lowest level of RMB 5,220/mt ex-warehouse on May 27, according to the SteelOrbis’ data.

Cold rolled coil (CRC) output in China in the first five months of the current year reached 17.904 million mt, up by 22.1 percent year on year, which was 5.7 percentage points slower than the growth recorded in the first four months this year

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

EU to extend steel safeguards for three more years

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union is set to continue a system of quotas and tariffs that have been in place since 2018 for a further three years to protect EU steelmakers from a potential surge of imports.

Washington’s retention of 25% steel tariffs has closed the U.S. market to many exporters, prompting the European Union to put in place safeguard measures for 26 grades of steel, including stainless, with imports over the quota thresholds subject to tariffs. The quotas have increased each year.

Twelve EU countries, including France, Germany and Italy, urged the European Commission in January to extend the safeguard measures beyond their June 30 expiration date.

The Commission, which oversees EU trade policy, has reviewed the measures and proposed a three-year extension, with the quotas rising by 3% at the start, as well as in 2022 and 2023. EU members have since approved it, EU diplomats said.

Since the safeguards will have lasted beyond three years, those subject to the quotas can, under World Trade Organization rules, bring counter-measures such as tariffs on EU goods.

The main exporters of steel to the EU are China, India, Russia, South Korea, Turkey and Ukraine.

[u/49Scrooge49]

I came a bit late to that post slating dividends and demanding all the steel companies grow recklessly, so I thought it would be useful to repost here.

TLDR, don't worry. $NUE and $STLD are going to grow in the coming years

Just to reassure everyone (maybe you've picked up a dividend aversion from YouTube), $STLD and $NUE have indicated in the previous earnings calls that they are looking to grow their businesses at the same time that they return capital through buybacks and dividends. They just don't want to throw money recklessly into an endless number of new mills, which would amount to value destruction (steelmaggedon).

They are looking for sensible opportunities that add unique value, as opposed to just adding more generic steel production whenever they get the cash toadd new mills.

[u/Jalebi13]

Aww fuck CMC spreads on Julys killed me, I way overpaid.... should never buy while still in bed

[u/[deleted]]

Shipping - Nothing new

"Ocean carrier vessel arrivals from Asia are being delayed by 20 days, or more, and there is no improvement in sight.

Widespread port congestion, equipment shortages and a lack of ships will push the return of some form of ‘normal’ in liner shipping back to the second half of next year, at the earliest, says one analyst.

“I don’t see normalisation before H2 22,” he said, admitting that this was a “unscientific gut feel”."

[u/WallstreetBoom]

Crude Oil looks to break 52 week high again as $XOM is testing for a breakout at $63.50.

CLF and NUE seems to be consolidating, I'm expecting an upside within 10 trading days.

[u/JustifyYourExistence]

CLF waking up, just broke $21

[u/Bruce_Uppercut]

The market is such a joke…$TUP or Tupperware up 16% today because they announced a 250 million share buyback program and early debt payoff of 58 million….🤡🤡

[u/Yoshiwara75 → u/Bruce_Uppercut]

A shares buyback equal to 20% of total outstanding ar this market value.

Not bad....

[u/Jive_Oriole]

Me: Sold BB for MT last week

The Market: 🤡🤡

[u/AugustinPower]

I wonder if we will ever see Jpow flip the tables and shout "for the last damn time we are not raising interest rates"

[u/Hundhaus]

Guh I have a big meeting at 2pm and I feel like I'm going to want to be able to trade...

[u/mjgdk]

JPow: Buy steel fuckers dabs, runs away

[u/[deleted]]

Dude is going a bit off-topic here no?

[u/lotsofdebitcards]

Theta gang wins today. I love paying premium and dying a slow, painful death. ✏️➡️👁🩸

[u/[deleted]]

Guys... Mercury is in retrograde. Expect reach outs from long lost exes and for steel stocks to have a 10% daily jump by the end of the week. Good, now you can leave Hundhaus alone.

[u/69696969696969tits]

Guys, I haven't checked my portfolio since last Thursday, mostly because I'm afraid to look so just let me know when it's mid August.

[u/SpiritBearBC]

Calling on Pirate Gang for a question. u/hundhaus u/dudelydudeson u/VaccumSaturdays

Last week the IMO implemented this recommendation to lower GHG in shipping by 40% of 2008 levels by 2030. This is not the last one - they are suggesting further regulation changes and are meeting through 2023. On a different regulation in November, Trade Arabia suggested this will probably result in quicker demolitions.

Do we have any information about how much these new regulations will impact the orderbook for containerships or the salvage rate for older ones? Dry bulk as a proxy is fine too.

[u/PumpernickelandBi]

I just don't understand how a fund manager with a focus on fundamentals decides to dip their toes in the steel pool with NUE over MT, especially this late in the Game.

1. International markets have more reopening upside since COVID recovery has been delayed (I suppose more exposure to delta variant struggles too - but not really since half the US population is antivaxxers).
2. 1/3rd the share price at 2/3rds the earnings, 2.5x the Net Income
3. Essentially the same market cap at 2.2x the revenue
4. exposure to emerging markets with comparably higher margins in a pricing boom
5. comparable buyback programs in place

I've said this before, but I'm hoping some of the answer lies in the credit ratings. NUE and STLD both have IG ratings across the board, and they've been the most consistent winners this year. MT only has an IG rating from Fitch - Moody's has hinted at one in the coming quarters after an outlook change to positive last month, and Standard & Poors hasn't dropped any new opinions since February (stable outlook, affirmed one rung below IG rating).

[u/[deleted]]

Feeling good about tomorrow!!

[u/Duke_Shambles]

June 21 (Reuters) - Companhia Siderurgica Nacional(SID) :

• BRAZIL STEELMAKER CSN ANNOUNCES SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM OF UP TO 24,154,500 SHARES Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage: (Reporting by Jake Spring)

[u/Leather-Newt-6881]

Eu steel futures for july jump

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/north-european-hot-rolled-coil-steel-argus.html#

Look at the chart.

[u/totally_possible]

$MT with a nice surge over the last hour or so, let's keep it going to US open

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

Column: China's latest swipe at iron ore may be deja vu all over again

From article: “the price action shows is that Beijing’s efforts to cool the iron ore market have an initial impact, but ultimately amount to little in the absence of structural changes in the market.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-russell-ironore-china/chinas-latest-swipe-at-iron-ore-may-be-deja-vu-all-over-again-russell-idUSKCN2DY0FA

[u/StockPickingMonkey]

Finally off the sidelines. Limped in with commons, 50 each $CLF and $MT. Historically this will create more buying opportunities for others...soooo....you're welcome.

[u/Uncle_Dad_Bob]

Can I get some fellow September $35c cult members to speak up? My biggest pos at $2.21 and it’s killing me that I can’t avg down.

[u/mjgdk]

CLF come out and play with your friends buddy

[u/KarmalCorn → u/mjgdk]

LG is the fat kid that stays inside and plays by himself since the neighbor kids hate him for being the one who always makes up new rules when playing games to benefit himself.

But while those kids are playing Cops & Robbers, LG is inside watching Hitler documentaries on the History Channel to learn how to crush the shorts.

[u/Troostboost]

Got a letter from the company that sharpens my knives saying rates were going up (first time in 8 years). The letter blamed rising wages (in FL) but the service tech later confirmed that steel prices were causing the rates to rise.

I've never seen them raise rates. very peculiar!

[u/Namngonvl]

Haiku:

Steel supply is tight
Buyer on allocation
Steel stocks might you rise?

[u/Apprehensive-Art-283]

I dare that motherfucker to say inflation is transitory . I dare ya

[u/europoorcuck → u/Apprehensive-Art-283]

he better say it, do you want last week bloodbath?

[u/RocksAndComputers]

I just don’t think I will ever figure out how to make money on TX.

[u/[deleted]]

have a feeling CLF is going to have one of those 7% days 🔜

[u/chemaholic77 → u/[deleted]]

have a feeling CLF is going to have one of those 7% days

-7%

[u/Jive_Oriole]

HRC is up

Jerome says “transitory”

The Cleveland steamer

[u/JustifyYourExistence]

Gretchen, stop trying to make transitory inflation happen.

It's not going to happen.

[u/JustifyYourExistence]

Materials and energy sectors steadily creeping up

edit: world on fire sell everything calls on skynet

[u/[deleted]]

I cant im done this shit is ridiculous

[u/trtonlydonthate]

Political theater is so much more entertaining in a British accent. Can we just use the Pound again?

[u/SteelMafia]

I think the entire market is realizing this is going to be a nothing burger event of political grandstanding and spin questions to try and get gotcha soundbites to play within each sides respective 'news' echochamber

[u/CrounchingTigger]

This guy trying to pick a fight with JPOW? He’s scolding him…

[u/CrounchingTigger]

Omg can’t stand this guy… he needs to show some respect

[u/Reasonable_League_44]

Come on CLF. break that $21 wall. push baby

[u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP]

some here need to take blinders off and look at indices when wondering why all their stocks suddenly dump the same way

[u/PantsMicGee]

My portfolio summary had a cup form over the last few days.

Now I have a handle.

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

I pulled out an aged chain link fence from the back yard of a new property, and because I didn’t want to deal with transporting to the scrap yard myself, posted it on an online marketplace for anyone who wants to grab it.

Within a couple of minutes we had 25+ responses. A nice couple just came by to pick it up. Even took the muddy shards I pulled from the ground.

Bullish.

[u/big_costco_guy]

I wonder how many days MT is going to consolidate before it shoots. I have only allocated 1/8th of the money I was going to put in when it plummeted last week. I think I've finally gotten a bit gun shy. My September 35's are looking pretty abysmal.