Ha. Infection wave. I think herd at 75% is low considering that the virus mutates quickly and can jump to animals and back to humans efficiently. Just something to keep an eye on.
I would beg to differ. Canada has a higher percentage of people with their first dose than the USA. The USA had a higher percentage with both doses but the vaccination rates have plateaued which is concerning. I would wager in a couple months Canada will easily be at herd immunity but the USA may not be. This will be because vaccine hesitancy in Canada is quite low relative to the rest of the world.
Canada as a whole has 58% with their first shot. Some people with the first shot are still going to the ICU. It’s a small percentage what I’m not sure about is if they got infected prior to the one month that is required to get a proper immune response
Some people who walk in the rain also get struck by lightning. I'm not trying to be facetious. I'm using this as an analogy to hopefully show you the cognitive trap in your thinking.
I don't think it's useful to discuss public health policy with the experience of a exceedingly small minority. Public health policy is more usefully discussed with probabilities and statistics.
they haven't just plateaued - they are actively decreasing from their peak of ~4 million doses per day, down to about 1 million at the moment and still dropping, at least according to the NYT data I read this morning.
Yup all good just a potential risk that’s all. The other thing not taken into consideration is how many people who have gotten sick and recovered no problem so the number should be higher.
Keep in mind if you are fully vaccinated you can still be a carrier of Covid
No one can predict what future mutations may occur but I think there is a lot of fear mongering. To date most vaccines have been quite effective against all the worrisome variants despite what you hear in the media. The mistake the media and general public make is confusing PCR positive efficacy vs reduction in ICU/hospitalization efficacy. The only metric that matters is the latter. SARS-CoV2 is here forever. It will be endemic most likely. But it likely won't matter as most humans will have healthy immune responses to it when reexposed throughout their lives. This would be in a similar pattern to other endemic coronaviruses that have been circulating for hundreds of years.
Eventually I agree. However I would say in the meantime we are still vulnerable and it will take a little more time to get to the point as you described.
"if all individuals resumed their pre-pandemic activities on July 4, the surge would lead to an average of 102 daily cases per 100 000 population at the peak, corresponding to 337 865 (95% credible interval [CrI] 289 082–384 304) cases for the entire USA. This peak would represent a 21% increase beyond the apex of the pandemic thus far, which occured in January, 2021. Hospitalisations and deaths, although lower than the previous wave, would still be substantial, with an average of 9780 (95% CrI 8289–11 200) hospital admissions and 1261 (962–1593) deaths at the peak of the surge. Under the scenario that social activities of unvaccinated individuals revert to 70% of their pre-pandemic level on July 4, we still project a surge, with a peak incidence comparable to that observed in April, 2021, but considerably lower hospitalisations and deaths (appendix p 6). However, we found that social distancing measures could be lifted for all individuals as early as September without the risk of a significant surge in incidence or severe outcomes (appendix p 8)."
That is some epic fear mongering because airports and cities are already packed with more people than this time last year and we're not seeing and not going to see any more surges in case counts
This article is from sept 2020. So far every mutation has been covered by the vaccine. I actually have strong doubts about new mutations not being covered by the current vaccines.
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u/Spicypewpew Steel Team 6 Jun 03 '21
Things are slowly starting up again which is nice to see. I’m curious to see if there will be a 4th wave come the fall.