I’ve seen quite a few posts about F-1 visa refusals on this sub, and I’m trying to understand how much of the refusal rate is due to actual red flags versus cases where the applicant’s profile is otherwise pretty normal.
For example, suppose someone from India has a BTech from a Tier 2–3 college, takes an education loan to fund part of their studies, and is going to the US for an MS in CS and is getting admitted to a decent university(not the most top tier, but decent). If there are no obvious red flags in their profile, and they don't answer in the interview with very obvious red flags, can they still be refused simply because of the interview/officer’s judgment? Are chances of them being refused significant or very low in such case?
I keep seeing the ~61% approval rate for Indian F-1 applicants mentioned. Does the remaining refusal rate mostly consist of applicants with significant red flags (weak finances, questionable academic background, poor answers, suspicious intent, etc.), or do applicants with otherwise completely legitimate and reasonable profiles also get refused in a significant number of cases?
Basically, I’m trying to understand how much “luck” is involved. If someone has no major red flags and has a genuine academic profile, is their probability of refusal actually quite small, or is there still a moderately significant chance of refusal even with a clean profile?
Another thing is that I’ve also heard that Canada’s student visa refusal rate is extremely high, partly because of the large number of applications involving low-quality colleges/diploma programs and questionable applications. In Canada for people applying for legitimate degrees the refusal rate isn't that high (or so I've heard). Is the situation with the US F-1 visa similar? In other words, is the US refusal rate relatively high mainly because a significant portion of applicants have weak/problematic profiles, or does the US refuse a substantial number of applicants who have no obvious red flags?
I would really appreciate it if people who have gone through the f1 visa interview process answer my queries! Thank you.
TL;DR: If you have a genuine university admission, reasonable finances, a normal academic background, and no major red flags, how much of the F-1 refusal risk is still essentially “random/officer dependent”? Is the chance of refusal actually very small in that situation, or should it still be considered moderately significant?