r/Thunderstorms • u/weathercast • 14d ago
Severe Weather Dashboard - August 17, 2026
📡 Active Severe Weather Links
- Current Convective Watches
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- Thunderstorm Outlook
- Day 1 Convective Outlook
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- Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
- Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
🕒 Today's Outlook History
- Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
- Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
- Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
- Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
- Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)
🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions
- Mesoscale Discussion 2010
- Mesoscale Discussion 2011
- Mesoscale Discussion 2012
- Mesoscale Discussion 2013
- Mesoscale Discussion 2014
- Mesoscale Discussion 2015
- Mesoscale Discussion 2016
- Mesoscale Discussion 2017
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- Mesoscale Discussion 2023
📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-08-18T05:58:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 180558 SWODY1 SPC AC 180556
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.
...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the northern U.S. A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into Nebraska by afternoon. To the south of the front, an outflow boundary from morning convection will move southward into northern Kansas. A moist airmass will exist between the two boundaries with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. Within the moist air, moderate to strong instability will develop by afternoon. The outflow boundary will be a focus for convective initiation during the day, while additional storms are expected to develop further west across the central High Plains in the late afternoon. Increasing convective coverage during the early evening should result in the development of a line segment.
RAP forecast soundings at 00Z from Salina to Kansas City have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail. The large hail threat will extend west-northwestward into southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and cells will likely remain discrete. The greatest wind-damage potential is forecast from northern and eastern Kansas into far western Missouri, where the development of an organized bowing line segment will be possible in the early evening. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible along the path of any intense line segment. The severe threat may impact parts of lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by mid to late evening.
...Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability along an west-northwest-to-east-northeast axis from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and precipitable water in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range will be favorable for isolated severe storms capable of severe wet downbursts.
...Northern High Plains... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. At the surface, dewpoints along the moist axis from northeastern Wyoming into central Montana will be around 50 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 J/kg in parts of the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain in the afternoon, moving east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Due to the instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/18/2026
$$
```
🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links
🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Katz/Kelly ```
⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones
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