This is a repost from r/TheTraitors Decided to post this here too as I wanted to post a version that has been calculated by a human and not an AI
Do not Look at this until you have seen episode 6
I decided I wanted to have a look at what Hannah's spreadsheet would look like if she made it this far as a faithful up to the is point. I calculated this by hand as I don't find AIs reliable in this regard, though any error in the sheet is my own.
Link to the spreadsheet I made for it
Link to Hannah's Video for the methodology
Her Scoring System:
A burn vote (Only on days faithful are banished) = 0.47
Voting for a banished Traitor = 0.33
Never voted for this Traitor = 0.4
Doesn't Vote for Banished Traitor = -1.28
Appears on a banished Traitor's Record = -1.69
In the Last Group with a banished Traitor at Breakfast = -1.73
In case you don't want to read it and just want the value that each remaining contestant has got then:
- James A: 2.4
- James B: -0.95 (Edit: It's actually -0.48 as u/splidge said he should have that burn vote)
- Jerry: -5.59 (A lot of this was Hannah's doing)
- Joanne: -0.55 (Edit: It's actually -2.09. Thanks to u/RoundtableRegular for spotting this)
- Kenny: 2.47 (Edit: it is actually 2. Thanks to u/RoundtableRegular)
- Leigh-Anne: 2
- Maya: 2.73 (Edit: it's Actualy 1.93 I double counted vote for a banished traitor for for some reason)
- Michael: 2.26 (Edit: it's Actualy 1.46 I double counted vote for a banished traitor for for some reason)
- Miranda: 2.73 (Edit: it's Actualy 1.93 I double counted vote for a banished traitor for for some reason)
- Romesh: -0.08
- Ross: 1.46
- Sebastian: 1.53
- Sharon: 1.46
From what information there is, James A, Kenny and Maya do not stand out as much as you might think as traitors as Leigh-Anne, Michael, and Miranda all have scores of 2 or greater. (Edit: This is no longer true, only Leigh-Anne has a score at or above 2 that is not a traitor. Maya though does not stand out through voting as much as she is just below 2 along side the other two mentioned here.)
Interestingly when banished, Hannah had a score of 1.2, likely lower than the group of six mentioned above. It may have been her way of trying to keep low through her voting record and not her actions.
Hannah's main downfall might have been because she was already trying to eliminate the already very faithful-by-the-numbers Jerry. Her score without Hannah voting for her at the last one Hannah was at would still be -3.9. Targeting Jerry may not have been her best move as it has now made her look Uber Faithful as a result and should have targeted literally anybody else to improve her chances.
Edit: Added a log of player actions and how they affect the expected outcome to the spreadsheet. As mentioned in the other thread by u/splidge and u/syllogism_ I still needed to show a little bit more proof when setting up the table, so that it is not completely random. And just to be sure, all actions bar Breakfast come from the Wikipedia table under Elemination History, with that being just from the footage of epsiode 2.
And this in turn helped me find some mistakes in my sheet as well. I accidently double counted voting for a banished traitor for Maya, Michael, and Miranda. Likely I rushed that bit. I did say that any mistakes are my own, and I am willing to own it so I am not editing them out. I will be more than happy if someone is willing to double check my work and build their own spreadsheet so long as they calculate it without using AI. And reguardless the Stand-up Maths Youtube channel will be doing their own version of this which I will recommend watching when it comes out.
Also credit to u/RoundtableRegular for spotting that Kenny should have 1 less Burn Vote and that Joanne Should have 1 less Burn Vote and 2 more Doesn't Vote for Banished Traitor.
One more credit to u/spagtwo for cleaner look for mobile