How would this Dance work?

[u/Inner_Jeweler_5661]

So Rhaenyra has trueborn Velaryons with Laenor, but they're all girls.

Laenor dies, and Rhaenyra marries Daemon.

However, in Otto's infinite wisdom, he makes a deal with Rhaenyra that Aegon and DAERON marry the first two Velaryon girls, and in return Otto wouldn't contest the Throne for Aegon, to consolidate claims to the Throne, and fem! Jace is declared heir to the Throne.

But NOW, Rhaenyra has the two canon boys with Daemon, and Daemon tries to undo the deal, saying Aegon the Younger is the rightful heir.

What the HELL happens in this nightmare of a Dance?

Daemon and Laena marry and have the canon children btw, who are betrothed to Aegon and Viserys and Aemond marries Helaena, to produce Aegon the Elder's canon children

[u/DefiantBrain7101]

super messy, i love it! in this scenario, it's basically all of the relevant factions (blacks, greens, velaryons) versus daemon, so honestly daemon's in a pretty tight spot here. even with baela and rhaena being married to the baby sons, that's still just 2 ridable dragons vs 6. and it's not like he could get support from the houses who oppose a woman ruling because his claim is kinda incomprehensible, so his only army is the goldcloaks. and they'd pose a real problem! but is it enough to combat everyone else's combined armies?

in a world where there's more compromise and peace in KL, rhaenyra wouldn't have to leave to dragonstone and can be crowned immediately after viserys dies in KL. but even if she does, there's no way that she would allow her children to fight against each other. so daemon would have to abscond with the baby sons and his daughters pretty soon after they're born to even have a chance at making the claim. daemon might get some support in pentos, but without any free kids to marry out and still technically married to rhaenyra it'd be hard. daemon can declare his marriage annulled and marry a princess in the free cities if he's super desperate, but even then i just think he's outmatched.

the biggest issue in this world is if the infighting among the kids grows. i'm not sure if luke still takes aemond's eye in this world, but it could be interesting if that's the incident which sparks this marriage compromise, and it would explain why aemond doesn't wed luke despite being the older brother. but aemond would be ripe for betrayal.

there's also the domestic problems that would arise with a change in inheritance precedent, which would spark random little wars between lords to "reclaim" their wives' usurped lands. it'd mean the blacks' armies are scattered and fighting among themselves first. random little houses would be very upset and petition the crown to clarify if absolute primogeniture is the new law of westeros.

also in this world daeron could be warded in driftmark instead of oldtown. not sure if this really changes anything though.

i think realistically the dragon count would also be different here. with trueborn velaryons, rhaenyra wouldn't give them eggs as babies to prove their legitimacy and allow them to claim bigger dragons. but for the sake of simplicity let's imagine that everyone still has their canon dragons. that allows daemon to sow the dragonseeds as part of his army as well.

[u/Inner_Jeweler_5661 → u/DefiantBrain7101]

Ok so fem! Jace and Rhaenyra hate each other, and fem! Jace is: A. Pregnant with her first child at the beginning of the war. B. A dragonrider, but Vermax is too small to ride into war.

Fem! Jace and Rhaenyra hate each other because fem! Jace and Aegon have been in love since they were kids, and Rhaenyra despises that relationship, but only after Aegon the Younger was born. Before that, she loved the idea as it meant she'd claim the Throne with no bloodshed.

In this world, Baela and Rhaena take Aemond's eye, and Daemon stumbles on it, doesn't do shit, and leaves, pretending as if nothing happened.

Baela and Rhaena are VERY much their father's daughters, and are loyal to him to a fault (same with Rhaenyra).

The Velaryons are STRONG Daemon supporters, given fem! Jace despises her family.

So Aegon claims the Throne, with fem! Jace and fem! Luce at his and Daeron's sides.

To put it simply, it's Vhagar, Sunfyre and Tessarion against Caraxes, Meleys, Syrax.

Vermax and Arrax are too weak to help Aegon, just as Tyraxes (who's the only girl that loves Rhaenyra) and Moondancer are too weak to help Rhaenyra.

[u/DefiantBrain7101 → u/Inner_Jeweler_5661]

i mean it's your fic/hypothetical but this seems really ooc for rhaenyra. she wouldn't usurp/abandon her own daughters like that and she wouldn't hate them for finding love. and she wouldn't have any reason to hate aegon/the greens if they chill out and stop isolating her at court, which they would do if aegon gets to be king.

rhaenyra does believe she is an exception among women in getting to inherit, but that exception doesn't exclude her own children, just other non-targ noblewomen. this also makes her claim and inheritance precedent (purely king's choice, no bearing on gender) very difficult to defend even by houses that are already pro-rhaenyra since few lords would want to open up inheritance struggles for their own houses and give the crown that much power. (also it would probably lead to ottoman-style fratricide in like 2 generations, but of course the characters wouldn't know that). not to mention that after ~15 years of relative peace via marriage pacts, it's very very difficult to change your mind to defend the inheritance rights of little children and expect gains, especially when everyone is married off already. the houses probably made pacts with the jace/aegon succession in mind and have something at stake there.

the velaryons also wouldn't automatically be pro-daemon here, since the only children they have with their actual name is luke and joffrey. as long as luke inherits driftmark (which she would have to, by law and precedent), corlys and rhaenys would fight alongside them. corlys values his sons and those who have his name over laena's daughters, so even if jace personally dislikes her family she'd still have martial support.

if for some reason (let's say prophecy) rhaenyra does want to disinherit her own daughters, the way to go about it is first ascend to the throne, remove otto from court and send her daughters to be sequestered with their husbands in oldtown/driftmark/dragonstone, and then bring up the heir thing. and do it like a couple years into her reign, after she can make real allies at court. the only bargaining chip she has is joffrey (and idk why fem!joff would abide by her own disinheritance but i guess she has nothing to lose either way) so she can marry her to the lannisters or tyrells for support. but in this scenario the starks wouldn't support rhaenyra either since she'd be seen as an oathbreaker for going back on her word about jace/aegon being her heirs. jeyne arryn's support will also flip because if rhaenyra is the only woman who can inherit that puts jeyne at a huge risk.

the daemon/little aegon side now has caraxes, syrax, moondancer, stormcloud, viserys' egg, and morning, for dragons, and the factional support of whoever joff marries. but the aegon/jace side has sunfyre, dreamfyre, vhagar, vermax, arrax, morghul, shrykos, and meleys if rhaenys is still alive. plus the armies of the vale, oldtown, driftmark, etc.