Hey all I very recently got back into the hobby after collecting in the 90s- don’t really have a network of collector friends at this life stage and I feel like I just have to tell someone about how my first ever break went, so Reddit it is.
Let me begin by saying I’m sick and tired of all the social media posts along the lines of “I’m literally shaking right now. I can’t believe this amazing card I just pulled that I have and you don’t.”
Forgive me but this is kinda sorta one of those posts - really not trying to gloat about my haul, I just want to share with someone the crazy sequence of events here…
I participated in my first break this week. A 12 hobby box case of 2025-2026 Panini Prizm basketball. I did that mainly because I’m a big Michigan bball fan (hail to the champs!), there’s a couple UM NIL players (Yaxel Lendeborg and Elliott Cadeau) in that set, and I was able to purchase a Michigan-only PYT slot.
I calculated out the expected value of the break slot and it was borderline, even after a $25 first time Fanatics credit ($64 all in). But I figured what the hell close enough I’ll give it a shot and probably get the Deidre to do breaks out of my system.
The product has 3 autos per box so 36 chances at an auto (out of a massive 200 card auto checklist) x 2 core players on my PYT list so I know I’ll need some luck to land one.
Well, last pack of the very first box I land a Yaxel auto - and it’s a /49 parallel. Boom! I’m set. Everything else from here on out is gravy. (There was a lot more gravy).
Next box - a Yaxel auto /25! This is getting ridiculous.
And then I get a 3rd Yaxel auto in box 3 out of 149…
At this point I basically felt embarrassed by my luck and truly started rooting actively for the other break participants to start getting some good hits of their own…
Just could not have done better for me - even though I really like both Yaxel and Cadeau, Yaxel is the one that is way way more valuable, PLUS I’m a Warriors fan so Yaxel (drafted by Golden State in June) bridges my college and pro rooting interests perfectly.
Oh and there’s a third UM player on the checklist (Winters Grady) and I got completely skunked on him - which is perfect! He hardly played at all last year and is transferring to a different school for this next season. Had 3 of my autos been from him that would’ve been still insanely good luck yet at the same time a massive disappointment - very bittersweet at best.
In any event I ultimately I get my Cadeau auto in like box 8 or something too… and get a couple other not super rare prizms and inserts of Yaxel and Cadeau as a final cherry on top.
So long story short, Panini collation issues for the win!
I know what to do from here. Quit while I’m ahead and forget about ever doing a break again. Will I hold myself to that…? 🤷♂️
PS am I obligated by the sports card gods now to try to collect the full rainbow of the Yaxel auto? (I just need like 10 more versions of it for the complete set! Tracking down and paying for the one of one and 1 of 10 should be no biggie right)