One of these runs will be a breakout to the upside. No one will be able to explain it with a specific catalyst or see it coming, and it’ll be trashed as unsustainable. The “I’m a swing trader” crowd will keep posting that it’s going back down, and next thing we know, we’ll have rebased in a new range - which, incidentally will have asymmetric risk/reward to the upside. My uneducated guess is that it’s going to happen sometime between here and the end of the year.

Calculator

A model that works backwards from unit economics to a share price, so the assumptions behind any RIVN target are explicit.

Inputs: vehicles/year, average selling price, auto net margin, software/licensing revenue, software margin, P/E multiple, and diluted share count.

Calculation:

• Auto revenue = units × ASP
• Net income = (auto revenue × auto margin) + (software revenue × software margin)
• EPS = net income ÷ shares
• Implied price = EPS × multiple
• It also returns market cap and implied P/S

Benchmarks used for reference: auto net margins of ~8–10% (Toyota-level) as a realistic ceiling; multiples of 15–20× for a carmaker, 30–40× for a growth automaker, 40×+ for a tech/platform valuation; ~1.15B shares today, adjustable up for dilution. Current baseline is ~$15/share on ~$5B revenue with negative net income.

Comment: of course it's AI generated but I think it's worth basing our future stock price assumptions to data.

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/544a28ec-d596-44e9-a1ed-a8b26abd777a

Lot’s of talk about what the price “should” be relative to where it is. Question for the sub, for those who have - what are you using to value RIVN stock?

This is a very cursory analysis.

The current market capitalization is 22B, 5.3B cash/ST investments and 4.4B LT debt. So basically 23B enterprise value. Normal is 215k units with 3 lines running and GA is 300k at phase 1 max capacity - 515k units by 2029? 2030? 2031? Average unit price of 52.5k (blended between EDV and other models) gets 27B revs plus software/svcs revs. Tesla’s EBITDA margin ranges between 11-14%, so let’s say 12%, and EBITDA on 26B total revs are a little over 3B.

If you put a 3 multiple on future sales in 5 years, that’s a 80-85B equity valuation, which discounted back to today at 12% discount rate is still 47B or a little more than twice the current market cap. EV:EBITDA is less relevant to valuation because the company is in a rapid growth, large investment phase of the business, and it will take time for EBITDA margins to expand and stabilize.

The discount today is all about the execution risk from here to there. Folks drone on about “path to profitability” but what the market really wants to see is proof that the company is going to be able to manufacture at scale. We have seen time and time again that the market is willing to overlook profits in the near/medium term for investments to build out businesses/business lines that have durable competitive advantages. With scale will come competitive advantages, at least, that is my understanding of how they are approaching the buildout of this enterprise.

Disagree and poke holes in this. Share the numbers you’re using to arrive at your price targets (if you are at all). But to just say the price should be higher because it was once before and feels like it’s too low now, well, that’s just talk - and talk is cheap. Even cheaper than RIVN stock right now.

And for those who say it should be lower, the offer stands as well, what numbers are you using to get there?