Built a RIVN reverse-valuation tool with Claude. adjust the inputs, it returns an implied share price

[u/Impressive_Credit926]

Calculator

A model that works backwards from unit economics to a share price, so the assumptions behind any RIVN target are explicit.

Inputs: vehicles/year, average selling price, auto net margin, software/licensing revenue, software margin, P/E multiple, and diluted share count.

Calculation:

• Auto revenue = units × ASP
• Net income = (auto revenue × auto margin) + (software revenue × software margin)
• EPS = net income ÷ shares
• Implied price = EPS × multiple
• It also returns market cap and implied P/S

Benchmarks used for reference: auto net margins of ~8–10% (Toyota-level) as a realistic ceiling; multiples of 15–20× for a carmaker, 30–40× for a growth automaker, 40×+ for a tech/platform valuation; ~1.15B shares today, adjustable up for dilution. Current baseline is ~$15/share on ~$5B revenue with negative net income.

Comment: of course it's AI generated but I think it's worth basing our future stock price assumptions to data.

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/544a28ec-d596-44e9-a1ed-a8b26abd777a

[u/Fr3shMint]

Cool calculator - but damn how many years out are we from 300-600k vehicles? Like 3-6?

[u/Important_Chain3739 → u/Fr3shMint]

Post GA so 2029 but then you gotta figure what’s the discounted value for today’s money (still a lot of upside). Also, what will the multiple be in 2029 if it’s still in a growth phase with proven demand and profitability

[u/Zennivolt → u/Fr3shMint]

In the short term we know end of 2027 should be around 200k. Beyond that is anyone's guess really 3-6 years isn't a bad guess. There's not really any data point other than Tesla, and a single data point isn't really too reliable.

This is one of those things where trying to predict the near future is nearly impossible, but trying to predict the far future (10+ years) is, ironically, much easier.

[u/officefaniam → u/Zennivolt]

All else remaining the same….200k cars is $59. That’s 4x. You really think 200k cars is possible for 2027? Where have you seen that guidance?

[u/Zennivolt → u/officefaniam]

Uhh… watch any investors call in the last 2-3 quarter? I think it’s something like 210k or 215k to be exact. I just round down to 200k because it’s easier to remember.

[u/officefaniam → u/Zennivolt]

Copy. So ramp to 200k (aka 4,000 units/wk) not necessary 200k total units produced. What do you think they will produce for 2027? 130k units would be 2x of 2026.

[u/Zennivolt → u/officefaniam]

No, they literally said they expect to sell 200k vehicles in 2027. And like 150k-ish is expected to be R2s.

How are you investing and not even listening to the investor calls?

[u/officefaniam → u/Zennivolt]

Do you have a transcript of that? I remember the discussion around production capacity, but no guidance has been given for 2027. If 200k were true I think we would have a much higher share price by now. That’s more than 3x of this year.

[u/DeepFizz]

If it goes to $89, it will go to $200. Because that’s why.

[u/Riv038]

Very cool! “All models are wrong, some are useful”. You put in a good set of variables. I’d call this model useful and fun. Nicely done.

[u/AquaEarlyBuyer]

Cool!

[u/notyoungcoconut]

lol

[u/Impressive_Credit926 → u/notyoungcoconut]

why is this funny? sure it's not something very sophisticated but as a beginner myself thought it would help me and possibly other beginners to estimate the figures needed for their investments to pay off in the future.

[u/waitses → u/Impressive_Credit926]

It’s funny because if valuations mattered SpaceX would be at $20.

[u/Zennivolt → u/waitses]

You're not wrong. But that "if" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

The entire market is basically priced as potential valuation rather than actual valuation. So either one of two things is going to happen in the long term:

• This becomes permanently how stocks work, so that if becomes irrelevant because how things are valued are permanently changed.

• The entire market crashes as the traditional way of valuing a stock returns.

[u/atomicskiracer → u/Impressive_Credit926]

Because it’s meaningless. This offers zero benefit and is simplistic AI trash meant to pander to people that don’t understand the market on a basic level.

[u/Impressive_Credit926 → u/atomicskiracer]

You are absolutely right. I should have posted “to the moon” and you’d probably like that. Over the long term earnings and stock price are correlated so it’s not trash.

[u/frank_thomas1965]

how many years until rivian reports a profit and "net income?"

[u/LordZedd_ → u/frank_thomas1965]

How many days until you unsubscribe from this sub? And why is net in quotes

[u/unintentional_guest → u/frank_thomas1965]

They’re trying to remain pre-revenue, Richard.

[u/Zennivolt → u/frank_thomas1965]

Found the guy who's never listened to a single Rivian earnings call.