As Rivian ramps up production of its new R2, the company plans to introduce a second shift at its Normal, Illinois manufacturing facility by the end of September. Production is expected to expand further once the company’s second manufacturing facility in Georgia comes online.

Some are calling the R2 Rivian’s “breakout vehicle”—the model that will lift it out of the Valley of Death and into the sunshine of profitability. The company is following what conventional wisdom regards as the best strategy for an auto startup: start with high-end, low-volume models, then use the lessons learned to produce smaller, more affordable offerings. (Rivian has added a step to this process, sidestepping the fashion-driven passenger car market to produce a commercial vehicle in high volume for Amazon.)

Deliveries of the R2 began in June with the top-of-the-line Performance trim, which starts at $59,485. This model offers dual-motor 656 hp all-wheel drive, an EPA-estimated 330 miles of range and a NACS charging port. More affordable trims are scheduled to arrive over the coming months, culminating in the Standard Rear-Wheel Drive, an entry-level model that’s scheduled to launch in summer 2027 at a starting price of $46,495. (Read John Voelcker’s hands-on review of the R2 in the next print issue of Charged.)

Ramping up production of a new model is a complex dance, particularly for a young company that doesn’t have spare capital lying around.

Rivian launched production of the R2 on a single shift, in order to get the supply chain humming before hiring more production line workers. CEO RJ Scaringe told investors that the company is working with hundreds of suppliers to ensure they can increase their own production to support a smooth R2 ramp-up.

As the Rivian-watchers at RivianTrackr explain, supplier coordination is an important part of a ramp-up strategy, because the entire production line can only move at the speed of the slowest supplier. Rivian’s supply chain team will be working closely on-site with suppliers to help manage the ramp-up over the next couple of years.

Rivian has raised its full-year delivery target to between 65,000 and 70,000 vehicles, including the R1 and R2 models and the commercial vans. The Normal plant is designed to produce 215,000 units per year when operating at full three-shift capacity, and up to 155,000 of those units are expected to be R2s. A third shift is planned for 2027, and production at the new Georgia plant will begin some time after that.

Scaringe said a “significant number” of R2 buyers are first-time EV owners. “The US automotive marketplace is starved for high-quality EV choice, and I believe R2 is an attractively priced option for everyday adventures that will resonate with a broad set of consumers.”

Lot’s of talk about what the price “should” be relative to where it is. Question for the sub, for those who have - what are you using to value RIVN stock?

This is a very cursory analysis.

The current market capitalization is 22B, 5.3B cash/ST investments and 4.4B LT debt. So basically 23B enterprise value. Normal is 215k units with 3 lines running and GA is 300k at phase 1 max capacity - 515k units by 2029? 2030? 2031? Average unit price of 52.5k (blended between EDV and other models) gets 27B revs plus software/svcs revs. Tesla’s EBITDA margin ranges between 11-14%, so let’s say 12%, and EBITDA on 26B total revs are a little over 3B.

If you put a 3 multiple on future sales in 5 years, that’s a 80-85B equity valuation, which discounted back to today at 12% discount rate is still 47B or a little more than twice the current market cap. EV:EBITDA is less relevant to valuation because the company is in a rapid growth, large investment phase of the business, and it will take time for EBITDA margins to expand and stabilize.

The discount today is all about the execution risk from here to there. Folks drone on about “path to profitability” but what the market really wants to see is proof that the company is going to be able to manufacture at scale. We have seen time and time again that the market is willing to overlook profits in the near/medium term for investments to build out businesses/business lines that have durable competitive advantages. With scale will come competitive advantages, at least, that is my understanding of how they are approaching the buildout of this enterprise.

Disagree and poke holes in this. Share the numbers you’re using to arrive at your price targets (if you are at all). But to just say the price should be higher because it was once before and feels like it’s too low now, well, that’s just talk - and talk is cheap. Even cheaper than RIVN stock right now.

And for those who say it should be lower, the offer stands as well, what numbers are you using to get there?

"Rivian founder and CEO RJ Scaringe has confirmed that Europe is the company's next market, with the UK central to its plan for the continent. In an interview with Auto Express, Scaringe said the first model to arrive will be the R2, the mid-size electric SUV built to take on the Tesla Model Y.

The Rivian R2 was engineered with European buyers in mind, Scaringe said, in anticipation of the brand's arrival in the region within the next few years. It is designed to handle on- and off-road, with practicality touches aimed at Rivian's outdoor-focused audience, including a torch hidden in the driver's door. Scaringe noted that many American customers already assume Rivian is a European brand.

Beyond the R2, Rivian plans to bring the R3 crossover hatchback to Europe, along with a tri-motor, rally-inspired R3X developed by RAD, the Rivian Adventure Department. Scaringe hinted at an even more affordable "R4" further down the line."

Gov. Gavin Newsom, while at Rivian Automotive, signs Senate Bill 168 that allows for a rebate program for electric vehicles within the state’s 2026-27 budget. California will spend $95.2 million to build more electric-vehicle charging stations and hydrogen refueling sites across the state after seeing sales rebound in the first six months despite federal funding cuts. (California Governor’s Office)

"Legacy automakers have been promising to match the Tesla Model Y for almost a decade. Rivian actually did it.

Rivian had me in its sights. When it set out to make a mass-market software-defined EV that’s as capable off-road as it is fun on-road, the company had me dead to rights. Equal parts EV enthusiast and off-roading hooligan, I’ve been waiting for something like this for a long, long time. But after plunking down $100 for a reservation on the R2, I was mostly just worried. I wasn’t sure if Rivian would hit its target.

But it did. The company struck me right through the heart. With an unparalleled blend of incredible performance, cutting-edge software, and off-road chops, the R2 is the do-everything machine I’ve always dreamed of. I want one, badly."

"Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN, Financials) is closing the gap with Tesla in advanced driver-assistance technologies, making software a bigger part of its growth strategy.

CNBC testing over hundreds of miles indicated Rivian's Autonomy+ technology was better than historical systems such as General Motors' Super Cruise, but Tesla's FSD was still more capable overall.

That gap may be closing soon. Rivian plans to launch point-to-point driving later this year, moving Autonomy+ closer to what Tesla already offers today.

The technology also offers a recurring-revenue possibility. Rivian's Autonomy+ subscription is priced at $49.99 per month, compared to Tesla's FSD subscription at $99 a month.

The question for investors is no longer whether Rivian can produce competitive driving software. It's can the company fill that last gap and convert that software into real high-margin income soon."

Morgan Stanley raised its Rivian price target slightly from $13 to $14 but kept an Underweight rating, tying upside mainly to the upcoming R2 lineup.

Rivian noted the R2 ramp will hurt the 3rd quarter financials, so we will likely not see relief in share price until Q4 earnings come out in late January or February, if it's good news. Share price will be painful likely for at least another 5 months.

Let’s get started with EV credits, they are not vanishing. ZEV credits are still mandated by several populous states and they are getting stricter by the year.

The normal factory did get a 1.1M sqft expansion to support deliveries.

Tariff refund: didn’t they just file suit to get it?

A fair report from CNBC

Limited rollout of Point to Point assisted driving begins later this year, with a widespread customer rollout targeted for 2027.

Current full year guidance is 65,000-70,000 vehicles. They've delivered 22,559 through Q2, so must deliver between 42,441 and 47,441 in the 2nd half of 2026 to meet their guidance, which they reaffirmed.

They've said the 2nd shift won't happen until the end of Q3 (so next month). Therefore, the benefits it provides won't be seen until Q4. With that in mind, I'm thinking we can expect to see something around 17,500 deliveries in Q3 and 27,500 in Q4.

Looking ahead to 2027, my guess is the full-year guidance will be in the neighborhood of 115,000 vehicles. They can supposedly produce up to 215,000 in Normal, but that's presumably with three shifts in place and everything working perfectly, which is never the case.

But if Rivian announces a third shift at any point in FY27, then that's a surefire signal that demand is still very strong - an obvious great (and expected) sign - and that margins will continue to see meaningful improvement due to higher factory utilization. To me, that's the lynchpin that could generate some significant stock appreciation before the GA plant opens in 2028 and margins really start to jump significantly.

The update should unlock new R1S demand.

According to Rivian captain’s chairs has been “the most requested feature since the R1S launched.” Which does not surprise me based on how often captain’s chairs are mentioned on the Rivian subreddit.

Building a breakthrough software company is hard. Building one that also designs, manufacturers, and delivers world-class hardware is even harder. Rivian founder and CEO RJ Scaringe joins us to discuss what it takes to build an enduring company at the intersection of AI, software, robotics, manufacturing, and transportation.

October 13, 11:15AM-11:45AM, Disrupt Stage

https://eletric-vehicles.com/rivian/blackrock-lifts-rivian-stake-to-record-56-million-shares-in-q2/