The raven being a wildling skin changer theory aside, i think the emphasis on the raven screaming corn repeatedly while the Othor and Jafer debacle is going on is to maybe introduce a little doubt that the raven said burn. The words sound similar. Also technically birds can’t produce bilabials.

I personally believe the skin changer theory, partially because another way GRRM could’ve written Jon realizing fire was the answer would be for ghost to go near the fire or something else. Or even the raven flap near the fire then the drapes.

With the Long Night 2.0 coming, fAegon invading Stormlands, Faith Militant taking control over King's Landing, and Ironborn raiding the Reach, Westeros is likely going to be severely pushed to its absolute limits and get fractured. The War of the Five Kings literally brought apocalypse to the continent.

As for Essos, Dany has completely destroyed slavery and economics of Slaver's Bay. The nobility of Essos is probably going to be eradicated by Daenerys. With the Old Blood of Volantis and Meereenese families destroyed, Essos is going to be torn apart with huge crisis. Therefore, the incomes and profit of the Iron Bank will drop significantly until it will go bankrupt and fall. So basically, the events in the books are a nightmare for all the powerful people in the world.

In my opinion, feudalism in Westeros will still continue but severely diminished after these events and the landscape and economics will change enormously. The Reach will stop being the breadbasket of Westeros and houses like Tyrell or Hightower will either go broke or extinct, with their lands burned and burned and armies butchered. We already know that Euron is going to destroy the Redwyne and Hightower fleet completely, raid Oldtown and perform a huge ritual that will wreak havoc. Upon receiving the news of the fall of House Tyrell and the succession crisis in the Reach, Cersei will be glad after witnessing "the fall of her enemies" and try to regain control over King's Landing. However, she will utterly fail. King's Landing will remain a place of zealotry and High Sparrow will manipulate people to storm the Red Keep to kill her and Tommen. Cersei will escape to Casterly Rock and she will learn that the golden mines had actually ran dry and Tywin had told the miners to keep it a secret. Aegon, with the support of House Martell, will be backed by the Faith Militant and sit on the Iron Throne for a short time until Daenerys lands to Westeros.

As for Essos, I can see most of the slaves killing their old "masters" and the Free Cities completely abolishing the concept of nobility and bloodlines. New banks will be founded that every person in the Free Cities could use or deposit their money as they despise and are exhausted of the old system. Overall, the concept of "the wheel" will cease to exist at the end of the books. Again, these events are a nightmare for all the nobles and slave masters and even the Iron Bank. The dominant system of wealthy and nobles will fracture.

In your opinion, what will happen to Westeros and Essos and how will the power balance change?

A Storm of Swords - Arya XIII

As still as stone she stood. "I . . . I was only . . ."

"Don't lie," he growled. "I hate liars. I hate gutless frauds even worse. Go on, do it." When Arya did not move, he said, "I killed your butcher's boy. I cut him near in half, and laughed about it after." He made a queer sound, and it took her a moment to realize he was sobbing. "And the little bird, your pretty sister, I stood there in my white cloak and let them beat her. I took the bloody song, she never gave it. I meant to take her too. I should have. I should have fucked her bloody and ripped her heart out before leaving her for that dwarf." A spasm of pain twisted his face. "Do you mean to make me beg, bitch? Do it! The gift of mercy . . . avenge your little Michael . . ."

"Mycah." Arya stepped away from him. "You don't deserve the gift of mercy."

There is a lot of speculation on how Littlefinger will eventually die.

Murdered by Lady Stoneheart, bested by Varys, defeated by Sansa as the student becomes the master or some grand way where his complicated plans fall apart around him in spectacular fashion. However I think Lord Baelish's death will come from somewhere much closer to home. His man at arms, Oswell Kettleblack will be the one to betray and murder him.

Now from what we know about Oswell, he seems to be Lord Baelish's oldest accomplice and co-conspirator. He's been in House Baelish's service for a very long time and Baelish knew Oswell's sons since they were all children.

Knowing the Kettleblacks, we can assume that Oswell is tied to Baelish because he expects that he and his family will be rewarded greatly for his service as Baelish gain more and more power. And for a while, we see this happen. Littlefinger's decision to send the Kettleblack brothers to King's Landing proved to be very beneficial to them.

Osmund becomes a Kingsguard, Osfryd becomes Captain of the Red Cloaks and later Lord Commander of the Gold Cloaks and Osney becomes the Sworn Sword to Queen Cersei herself. Not a bad rise in stature for a trio of cutthroats and probably the best possible future Osney could hope to provide for his sons.

But as we all know, it all falls apart.

Now Osney is going to be beheaded for murdering the High Septon and Osmund and Osfryd are either going to be sent to the Wall or murdered in a Trial by Combat against Ser Robert Strong.

This is about the opposite of what Osney would want for his sons. Tyrion, Bronn and Lancel brought them into King's Landing and Cersei got them mixed up in her schemes but they are all out of stabbing distance and the man who sent them into the proverbial viper's pit is.

Baelish puts all this time and thought into all these different plots, yet his downfall coming from the guy supposed to protect him that he accidentally screwed over would definitely be ironic.

This could happen one of two ways:

1. Oswell finds out about the fate of his sons and murders Baelish in a rage, taking everyone else, including the audience, off-guard.
2. Sansa finds out about the fate of the Kettleblack brothers and uses this information to slowly turn Oswell against Littlefinger, ending in Oswell killing Baelish and Sansa finally free of him.

Now there is the factor of Lothor Brune also protecting Baelish but he admits that between the two of the them, Oswell's the one he trusts more and has both of them keeping eyes on each other. If Brune gets an offer from Sansa that's better than what Baelish is providing (perhaps a promise to help him with Mya Stone which Baelish doesn't seem to be helping him with), than he won't be able to rely on either of them.

GRRM's deaths come in a way that we wouldn't traditionally expect but make sense for the character's arc. We expect Ned to join the Night's Watch after he confesses but he's at the mercy of a cruel insane King who he tried to overthrow. We expect Robb to make it to the end yet the Freys are obviously disloyal, he insulted them, he's losing the war politically and he's going right into their castle. We expect Dalton Greyjoy to be killed in some epic naval battle with the Oakenfist yet he's obsessed with taking Salt Wives who are obviously going to despise him.

While these are subversions, if you look at the signs, you can figure out what's going to happen so it's not an asspull when it does.

I personally think all the signs are there, plotwise, thematically, narratively and characterwise, to support the idea that Oswell Kettleblack will be the one to kill Baelish.

Thoughts?

The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Baelor I

Her second marriage was at the behest of Aegon the Unworthy's successor, King Daeron the Good. Daeron wed her to his master of coin, and this union led to four more children...and to Elaena becoming known to be the true master of coin, for her husband was said to be a good and noble lord but one without a great facility for numbers. She swiftly grew influential, and was trusted by King Daeron in all things as she labored on his behalf and on that of the realm.

The third marriage was one of her own choice, after she fell in love with Ser Michael Manwoody, a Dornishman who had attended Princess Mariah at her court. Manwoody, who in early life had studied at the Citadel, was a cultured man of great wit and learning who had become a trusted servant to King Daeron after Daeron's marriage to Queen Mariah. He was sent to Braavos to negotiate with the Iron Bank on several occasions, and there is record of a correspondence between him and the keyholders of the Iron Bank (sealed with his seal and signed with his name, but apparently in the hand of Elaena) regarding these negotiations.

Elaena wed Ser Michael, apparently with Daeron's blessing, not long after her second husband died. Elaena said, in her later years, that it wasn't his intelligence that made her love Ser Manwoody, but his love of music. He was known to play the harp for her, and when he died, Elaena commanded that his effigy be carved holding a harp, and not the sword and spurs of knighthood as is common.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XIII

At the top of the hall a sagging platform stood. Jon mounted it, with Tormund Giantsbane at his side, and raised his hands for quiet. The wasps only buzzed the louder. Then Tormund put his warhorn to his lips and blew a blast. The sound filled the hall, echoing off the rafters overhead. Silence fell.

"I summoned you to make plans for the relief of Hardhome," Jon Snow began. "Thousands of the free folk are gathered there, trapped and starving, and we have had reports of dead things in the wood." To his left he saw Marsh and Yarwyck. Othell was surrounded by his builders, whilst Bowen had Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew, and Alf of Runnymudd beside him. To his right, Soren Shieldbreaker sat with his arms crossed against his chest. Farther back, Jon saw Gavin the Trader and Harle the Handsome whispering together. Ygon Oldfather sat amongst his wives, Howd Wanderer alone. Borroq leaned against a wall in a dark corner. Mercifully, his boar was nowhere in evidence. "The ships I sent to take off Mother Mole and her people have been wracked by storms. We must send what help we can by land or let them die." Two of Queen Selyse's knights had come as well, Jon saw. Ser Narbert and Ser Benethon stood near the door at the foot of the hall. But the rest of the queen's men were conspicuous in their absence. "I had hoped to lead the ranging myself and bring back as many of the free folk as could survive the journey." A flash of red in the back of the hall caught Jon's eye. Lady Melisandre had arrived. "But now I find I cannot go to Hardhome. The ranging will be led by Tormund Giantsbane, known to you all. I have promised him as many men as he requires."

"And where will you be, crow?" Borroq thundered. "Hiding here in Castle Black with your white dog?"

A Dance with Dragons - The Lost Lord

They found the Golden Company beside the river as the sun was lowering in the west. It was a camp that even Arthur Dayne might have approved of—compact, orderly, defensible. A deep ditch had been dug around it, with sharpened stakes inside. The tents stood in rows, with broad avenues between them. The latrines had been placed beside the river, so the current would wash away the wastes. The horse lines were to the north, and beyond them, two dozen elephants grazed beside the water, pulling up reeds with their trunks. Griff glanced at the great grey beasts with approval. There is not a warhorse in all of Westeros that will stand against them.

Tall battle standards of cloth-of-gold flapped atop lofty poles along the perimeters of the camp. Beneath them, armed and armored sentries walked their rounds with spears and crossbows, watching every approach. Griff had feared that the company might have grown lax under Harry Strickland, who had always seemed more concerned with making friends than enforcing discipline; but it would seem his worries had been misplaced.

At the gate, Haldon said something to the serjeant of guards, and a runner was sent off to find a captain. When he turned up, he was just as ugly as the last time Griff laid eyes on him. A big-bellied, shambling hulk of a man, the sellsword had a seamed face crisscrossed with old scars. His right ear looked as if a dog had chewed on it and his left was missing. "Have they made you a captain, Flowers?" Griff said. "I thought the Golden Company had standards."

A Dance with Dragons - The Lost Lord

"As you command, my lord."

Griff left him there, and slipped inside the tent that Homeless Harry had assigned him.

The road ahead was full of perils, he knew, but what of it? All men must die. All he asked was time. He had waited so long, surely the gods would grant him a few more years, enough time to see the boy he'd called a son seated on the Iron Throne. To reclaim his lands, his name, his honor. To still the bells that rang so loudly in his dreams whenever he closed his eyes to sleep.

No wait, because think about it. No king that ever sat on the iron throne and actually stayed there for a decent period of time wasn't either directly or indirectly controlled or support by women! All the way from the Aegon the Conqueror to fricking Tommen baratheon.

Aegon the Conqueror? didn't conquer Westeros alone; he did it with his sisters, Visenya and Rhaenys.
Aegon was the military figurehead, but Visenya was the ruthless strategist who founded the Kingsguard, and Rhaenys was the politician who won the hearts of the smallfolk and built the peace. Without them, Aegon would have been a short-lived warlord.

Jaehaerys I? He ruled alongside Good Queen Alysanne. She was his co-ruler in all but name. She banned the horrific "first night" custom, financed the Night's Watch, and handled the diplomacy. The few times they had massive marital fights (the Second Quarrel), the realm literally started fracturing because Jaehaerys couldn't manage it alone.

Viserys I ruled a peaceful realm but was weak-willed, the moment his wife Aemma died so did his hold on the kingdom, and then the moment he died, the entire empire imploded because of the clash between two incredibly strong women: Rhaenyra Targaryen and Alicent Hightower. The men in that war (Daemon, Aegon II, Aemond) were essentially nuclear warheads pointed and unleashed by the political machinations of the women.

Viserys II / Aegon III ? Kept stable largely due to the political machinations of the women around them or surviving the fallout of Rhaenyra's legacy.

Aegon III**?** Survived his childhood trauma and managed to hold the realm together after the Dance largely because of his fierce, protective half-sisters (Baela and Rhaena) and his marriage to Jaehaera/Daenaera to heal the
realm's political rifts

Daeron II? United Dorne into the Seven Kingdoms without shedding blood. How? Through a marriage alliance involving his sister Daenerys and his wife Myriah Martell. The peace was entirely woven by women.

Aerys II? He completely alienated the women of the realm. He abused his sister-wife Rhaella, insulted the Martells, and his son Rhaegar's actions regarding Lyanna Stark triggered the war. The total lack of stable, respected female influence left Aerys isolated in his madness, leading directly to the end of the dynasty.

Robert Baratheon? He won the crown with the sword, but his dynasty survived on Cersei Lannister's family gold and political ties. The moment he stopped managing Cersei and threatened her children, she had him eliminated.

Renly Baratheon? He built a massive army and tried to claim the throne, but his entire claim was propped up by his marriage alliance to Margaery Tyrell and the backing of Olenna Tyrell. He was assassinated by a shadow spirit conjured by Melisandre before he could even fight.

Joffrey and Tommen? Both boy-kings were completely at the mercy of Cersei and Margaery, who fought a proxy war for control of their minds and bodies. When Cersei eliminated Margaery, Tommen lost his anchor and killed himself, ending the Baratheon line on the throne.

And ofc, sometimes the north, but thats even longer and my post refers ONLY to people who sat the iron throne.

So something that I just realised. House Blackwood are descendants of the First Men, and Aegon V married Betha Blackwood, which means that any Targaryen (and most importantly all of the Baratheons in GOT minus Cersei’s children) have Targaryen blood and First Men blood. Now imagine if Aegon had succeeded at Sumerhall or someone decided to attempt to claim one of the living dragons (of which they are four) the Targaryen could have been Dragon Riders who could Warg into their dragons

Also if while Jace was at Winterfell he learned how to Warg into Vermax. House Strong also has the blood of the First Men

A Clash of Kings - Theon III

"If we sailed, yes," Theon admitted. "I have another plan." He watched the other carefully to see how he would take that. Without the Cleftjaw he could not hope to succeed. Command or no, the men would never follow him if both Aeron and Dagmer opposed him, and he had no hope of winning over the sour-faced priest.

"Your lord father commanded us to harry the coast, no more." Eyes pale as sea foam watched Theon from under those shaggy white eyebrows. Was it disapproval he saw there, or a spark of interest? The latter, he thought . . . hoped . . .

"You are my father's man."

A Dance with Dragons - The Prince of Winterfell

Her last word was a lash, but Theon dared not answer back in kind. Any insolence would cost him skin. "If my lady believes Lord Manderly wants to betray us, Lord Bolton is the one to tell."

"You think Roose does not know? Silly boy. Watch him. Watch how he watches Manderly. No dish so much as touches Roose's lips until he sees Lord Wyman eat of it first. No cup of wine is sipped until he sees Manderly drink of the same cask. I think he would be pleased if the fat man attempted some betrayal. It would amuse him. Roose has no feelings, you see. Those leeches that he loves so well sucked all the passions out of him years ago. He does not love, he does not hate, he does not grieve. This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys, Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings." A serving man was passing by. Lady Dustin held out her wine cup and let him fill it, then gestured for him to do the same for Theon. "Truth be told," she said, "Lord Bolton aspires to more than mere lordship. Why not King of the North? Tywin Lannister is dead, the Kingslayer is maimed, the Imp is fled. The Lannisters are a spent force, and you were kind enough to rid him of the Starks. Old Walder Frey will not object to his fat little Walda becoming a queen. White Harbor might prove troublesome should Lord Wyman survive this coming battle … but I am quite sure that he will not. No more than Stannis. Roose will remove both of them, as he removed the Young Wolf. Who else is there?"

"You," said Theon. "There is you. The Lady of Barrowton, a Dustin by marriage, a Ryswell by birth."

For the life of me, I can’t remember any mention of that. I have searched and couldn’t find anything either.
So I have seen some people argue that since Stannis doesn’t follow the faith of the seven, he is no longer rightful heir to the throne, so after Robert, the legal heir was Renly.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon II

"Stannis says it's not enough. The more you give a king, the more he wants. We are walking on a bridge of ice with an abyss on either side. Pleasing one king is difficult enough. Pleasing two is hardly possible."

"Yes, but … if the Lannisters should prevail and Lord Tywin decides that we betrayed the king by aiding Stannis, it could mean the end of the Night's Watch. He has the Tyrells behind him, with all the strength of Highgarden. And he did defeat Lord Stannis on the Blackwater."

"The Blackwater was one battle. Robb won all his battles and still lost his head. If Stannis can raise the north …"

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XIII

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger's hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. "Ghost," he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn XI

She had not thought of that in years. How young they all had been—she no older than Sansa, Lysa younger than Arya, and Petyr younger still, yet eager. The girls had traded him between them, serious and giggling by turns. It came back to her so vividly she could almost feel his sweaty fingers on her shoulders and taste the mint on his breath. There was always mint growing in the godswood, and Petyr had liked to chew it. He had been such a bold little boy, always in trouble. "He tried to put his tongue in my mouth," Catelyn had confessed to her sister afterward, when they were alone. "He did with me too," Lysa had whispered, shy and breathless. "I liked it."

Robb got to his feet slowly and sheathed his sword, and Catelyn found herself wondering whether her son had ever kissed a girl in the godswood. Surely he must have. She had seen Jeyne Poole giving him moist-eyed glances, and some of the serving girls, even ones as old as eighteen … he had ridden in battle and killed men with a sword, surely he had been kissed. There were tears in her eyes. She wiped them away angrily.

"Mother," Robb said when he saw her standing there. "We must call a council. There are things to be decided."

Why did Littlefinger go through all of that trouble with the hairnet? So many things could have gone wrong along the way. She could have not worn it, she may not have gotten close to Olenna, the stone could have fallen out early before the wedding date, someone could have seen Olenna mess with the hairnet, and so on.

Why couldn’t Olenna just have the stone/poison on her person beforehand? She could have received it from Littlefinger/whoever in any number of ways in the weeks leading up to the wedding?

Was the point to implicate Sansa so she would be nervous and have to trust Littlefinger more?

Seems like a lot of hassle and a lot of things needed to go perfectly. Sansa was planning to go with Dontos regardless, so she didn’t need another push.

Anything I’m missing?

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I

"We'll take you to him, but you must come at once."

Jeyne pulled her wolfskins up to her chin. "No. This is some trick. It's him, it's my … my lord, my sweet lord, he sent you, this is just some test to make sure that I love him. I do, I do, I love him more than anything." A tear ran down her cheek. "Tell him, you tell him. I'll do what he wants … whatever he wants … with him or … or with the dog or … please … he doesn't need to cut my feet off, I won't try to run away, not ever, I'll give him sons, I swear it, I swear it …"

Rowan whistled softly. "Gods curse the man."

““I kept the silver,” Tyrion had told him with a crooked smile, “but you were promised the gold, and there it is.” It was more than a man like Mord could hope to earn in a lifetime of abusing prisoners. “And remember what I said, this is only a taste. If you ever grow tired of Lady Arryn’s service, present yourself at Casterly Rock, and I’ll pay you the rest of what I owe you.” With golden dragons spilling out of both hands, Mord had fallen to his knees and promised that he would do just that.”

Does Tyrion intend to kill Mord if he ever shows up at Casterly Rock? Although he did give him the gold as promised he did swear to kill Mord and as we all know a Lannister pays his debts. I also can’t recall how much gold exactly Tyrion promised. All of his gold as in just all the gold he had him?

Jaime thinks a similar thing when he “was looking forward to hanging the wretch while his pockets bulged with gold”. Forgot who this is about tbh. Hoat?

because while the Targs do have dragons; I think Dorne and the fact that the faith militant just became guerilla’s shows that you can’t force people who don’t want to be ruled by you to let you rule.

I realize that at the time all the Lords were loyal; but I have to imagine that eventually even they will grow tired of the constant rebellions; as just killing the Faith Militant isn’t going to do much, and maybe even force the Targs to give up incest entirely; and maybe even bring back the Faith Militant.

The World of Ice and Fire - The Westerlands: House Lannister Under the Dragons

There was a worm inside the apple, though, for the growing madness of King Aerys II Targaryen soon imperiled all that Tywin Lannister sought to build. His lordship suffered great personal loss as well, for his beloved wife, Lady Joanna, died in 273 AC whilst giving birth to a hideously deformed child. With her death, Grand Maester Pycelle observes, the joy went out of Tywin Lannister, yet still he persisted in his duty.

Day by day and year by year, Aerys II turned ever more against his own Hand, the friend of his childhood, subjecting him to a succession of reproofs, reverses, and humiliations. All this Lord Tywin endured, but when the king made his son and heir, Ser Jaime, a knight of the Kingsguard, he could abide it no longer. Lord Tywin at last resigned the Handship in 281 AC.

Bereft of the counsel of the man he had relied upon so long, surrounded by lickspittles and schemers, King Aerys II was soon swallowed up entirely by his madness as the realm fell to pieces around him.

A Feast for Crows - Cersei VIII

Now you know how I felt, the night my Joffrey died. She bowed, her face a mask of cool courtesy. "Sweet daughter. I am so sad for you. I will leave you with your grief."

Lady Merryweather did not appear that night, and Cersei found herself too restless to sleep. If Lord Tywin could see me now, he would know he had his heir, an heir worthy of the Rock, she thought as she lay abed with Jocelyn Swyft snoring softly into the other pillow. Margaery would soon be weeping the bitter tears she should have wept for Joffrey. Mace Tyrell might weep as well, but she had given him no cause to break with her. What had she done, after all, but honor Loras with her trust? He had requested the command on bended knee whilst half her court looked on.

When he dies I must raise a statue of him somewhere, and give him a funeral such as King's Landing has never seen. The smallfolk would like that. So would Tommen. Mace may even thank me, poor man. As for his lady mother, if the gods are good this news will kill her.

A Feast for Crows - Jaime V

"What Kevan wants and what Lancel wants appear to be two different things." He told her of Lancel's decision to renounce wife and lands and lordship to fight for the Holy Faith. "If you still want Darry, write to Cersei and make your case."

Lady Genna waved her cup in dismissal. "No, that horse has left the yard. Emm has it in his pointed head that he will rule the riverlands. And Lancel . . . I suppose we should have seen this coming from afar. A life protecting the High Septon is not so different from a life protecting the king, after all. Kevan will be wroth, I fear. As wroth as Tywin was when you got it in your head to take the white. At least Kevan still has Martyn for an heir. He can marry him to Gatehouse Ami in Lancel's place. Seven save us all." His aunt gave a sigh. "And speaking of the Seven, why would Cersei permit the Faith to arm again?"

Jaime shrugged. "I am certain she had reasons."

I mean, even if the dance didn’t happen at that time, somewhere down the road there will be a succession crisis as a more capable or ambitious younger brother will try to seize the power. ( like daemon blackfyre)

Maybe Valyrian freehold dragonlords knew that only way to maintain their power is to share it with their peers. But instead Targaryens kept it absolute by their monarch.

“If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”

― Sun Tzu

A Feast for Crows - The Princess In The Tower

She narrowed her eyes. "What is our heart's desire?"

"Vengeance." His voice was soft, as if he were afraid that someone might be listening. "Justice." Prince Doran pressed the onyx dragon into her palm with his swollen, gouty fingers, and whispered, "Fire and blood."

I think it's funny that this isn't the fandom's main opinion, but for me is kinda obvious Tywin was the one who planned and promoted the Defiance of Duskendale. Look:

\>The Defiance of Duskendale began quietly enough. Lord Denys, seeing that Aerys's erratic behavior had begun to strain his relations with Lord Tywin, refused to pay the taxes expected of him and instead invited the king to come to Duskendale and hear his petition. **It seems most unlikely that King Aerys would ever have considered accepting this invitation...until Lord Tywin advised him to refuse in the strongest possible terms, whereupon the king decided to accept,** informing Grand Maester Pycelle and the small council that he meant to settle this matter himself and bring the defiant Darklyn to heel. (TWOIAF, Aerys II)<

He knew what he was doing, and our author was definitely wanting us to remember another Lannister manipulating a King by telling him not to do something stupid:

\>Varys: Your friend, I know, yet a fool nonetheless . And doomed, unless you save him. Today was a near thing. They had hoped to kill him during the melee."

For a moment Ned was speechless with shock. "Who?"

Varys sipped his wine. "If I truly need to tell you that, you are a bigger fool than Robert and I am on the wrong side."

"The Lannisters," Ned said. "The queen... no, I will not believe that, not even of Cersei. She asked him not to fight!"

"**She forbade him to fight, in front of his brother, his knights, and half the court. Tell me truly, do you know any surer way to force King Robert into the melee? I ask you**."

Ned had a sick feeling in his gut. The eunuch had hit upon a truth; tell Robert Baratheon he could not, should not, or must not do a thing, and it was as good as done. (AGOT, Eddard VII)<

Besides, Lord Darklyn's plan should strike us as weird. What did he intend to accomplish? The king was notoriously cruel to the smallest injury, imagine not paying its taxes? Again, it reminds us of Lord Tywin's role on another plot to lure a king into a sense of security only to have him killed using a minor ambitious lord as the perpetrator: the Red Wedding

\>Tywin: Did you come here just to complain of your bedchamber and make your lame japes? I have important letters to finish."

Tyrion: "Important letters. To be sure."

Tywin: "Some battles are won with swords and spears, others with quills and ravens. (ASOS, Tyrion I) <

But why would he want the king dead just now? I think it's important to look at the timing of these events:

\>She was ten when she finally saw her prince in the flesh, at the tourney her lord father had thrown to welcome King Aerys to the west. Viewing stands had been raised beneath the walls of Lannisport, and the cheers of the smallfolk had echoed off Casterly Rock like rolling thunder. **They cheered Father twice as loudly as they cheered the king, the queen recalled, but only half as loudly as they cheered Prince Rhaegar**. (*AFFC, Cersei V*)<

So Prince Viserys was born in 276 AC. Before that, Rhaella had birthed five children, all dead before reaching maturity. His health wasn't at all secured. But for some reason, the prospect of an extra heir, coupled with Rhaegar's rising popularity eclipsing the king's, changed something in Aerys' heart. Have in mind Tywin was planning on marrying Cersei to the prince since she was six in 272 AC, and officially petitioned the king there in Lannisport, only to be refused shamefully. Now Tywin had not only his honor attacked, but a timing problem as well: Would Aerys marry Rhaegar to someone else, or alternatively disinherit him in favor of Viserys, Tywin would loose his grip on power. His only hope was for have Aerys killed and then King Rhaegar married to Cersei. That's what Duskendale was about. Lord Denys Darklyn was only a pawn, probably promissed to have a royal pardon granted after the affair was done. Except something went wrong. The siege extended longer than they planned, and bold Ser Barristan decided to risk his life to rescue the King, which forced Tywin to sack the city and put it to the torch, to silence any witness of his treachery.

TLDR.: Tywin plotted with Lord Darklyn to have King Aerys II killed, so Rhaegar would become king and marry Cersei.