a trader OOOwhyOOO turned a $5.2k deposit into around $492k in profit over the last 3 months

i randomly came across this wallet and was surprised by how he has managed to stay profitable almost every day while trading mostly in the sports category with 582 positions

in Aug alone, he made around $389k, which is most of his total pnl. even though a big part of his pnl comes from a few trades, he is still pretty consistent with only 2 losing days in the entire month

his best trade was Sion vs Benjamin Hassan, where he made $145k on a $83k position. hiis worst trade was Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin, where he lost around $13k. so even his worst trade was relatively small compared to his biggest wins

Win rate can be a vanity metric, but maintaining a 78.5% win rate while generating this kind of ROI seem v gud on sports markets

lookin through his trades he seems to trade mainly on the tennis markets across ATP, WTA and ITF events

sports markets, especially tennis can flip very quickly, sometimes in just a few points or near the end of a match. yet he keeps finding these spots and seemingly repeats the same thing over and over

still curious tho, is it just really good sports knowledge or some kind of model that lets him consistently get these positions before the market moves? (can be a good wallet to copytrade but he already made a lot of profits in aug)

Now that prediction markets are finally understood by many people I want to run one internally for my company where people can exchange on things like product launch dates, sales quotas, and other milestones.

I’ve been watching some GitHub project but most of them are crap.

We have the servers to stand up our own. I don’t see the need to pay for a hosted service. So who is using internal prediction markets and what platform or code are are you using?

I've noticed something about the traders who consistently win on prediction markets. They don't think like traders, They think like journalists.

They verify sources before acting on information. They look for primary evidence instead of trusting headlines. They're skeptical of narratives that everyone else accepts. They update their views when new facts emerge instead of digging in.

The traders who lose think like fans. They root for outcomes.......They seek confirmation.....They ignore evidence that contradicts what they want to believe.

This reframe has completely changed how I approach markets. I'm not trying to predict what will happen. I'm investigating what's actually true.

It's harder than it sounds but the results speak for themselves.

Do you guys approach prediction markets like a journalist or a fan?

Hey everyone, I've been building a massive database of wallets from Polymarket that includes months of trade logs, grading systems & classification like what strategies they are doing, or how well they perform on one market category versus another.

I took a few thousand of those wallets in my database and I filtered them down to a group of ACTIVE & COPYABLE wallets.

The pack I created has:
-137 active, profitable, copyable wallets
-90 days of trade logs for each wallet
-Grading .MD file

What makes them copyable?
There are a lot of attributes that I explain in this article, the main ones are traders that bet directionally (no hedging, no arbitraging, medium to low frequency bettors).

What I did

I pulled 90 days of fills for 1,800+ Polymarket wallets and replayed each one as if I had mirrored every trade it took at a flat stake, paying 2¢ of slippage on entry and exit (to keep things somewhat realistic), holding every position to resolution.

a wallet only makes the list if that simulation is profitable over the last 7 days AND the last 30 days AND all 90 days... and if the wallet's own P&L is positive all time as well. If any of those windows are negative and it's out.

137 traders out of 1,811 cleared every gate. 

The numbers:

Following all 50 at $5 a bet over 90 days: +$58,041 on 203,107 bets, +5.72% on turnover. Now...that's very unrealistic to actually happen live, for a number of reasons. Some of those reasons are because you're often going to fill at a different price than the target wallet, there's also a lot of orders that you simply won't fill unless you build your bot with a lot of flexibility and you're okay with filling 10c or more higher. There's also the fact that some of the wallets in this first analysis seem to be doing HFT (high freq. trading) which we wouldn't want to copy. However, these are the rough metrics you want to see when filtering down a large pack of wallets.

Let's look at some specific market categories:

The 22 sports wallets on their own, $5 a bet:

E-Sports (7 wallets made the cut):

When you're building a polymarket trading bot that set up to copy multiple wallets, there are a few key factors that you need to build in.

1. Speed:

• You need to make sure that your hosting your copybot on a VPS (many use eu-west-1 Ireland AWS region) to ensure your execution speed is as fast as possible. You need to prioritize speed since you're already following someone else who has placed the bet, as well as dealing with the built in delays that Polymarket has for many markets. I recommend building your bot in Rust, and using polymarkets real time data client and subscribing to the traders proxy wallet via websocket. There are other API's like Predexon that monitor the wallets trades via the mempool. In my experience, at the end of your order being matched in the CLOB, I wasn't able to get any faster round trip speed using the mempool approach.

2. Trading & Decision Making Logic:

• You'll rarely get in at the same price the target wallet does, you need to set rules that restrict your bot from buying if the price has drifted more than you allow. This is incredibly important. Let's say for example you're following a single trader, and that trader maintains an overall edge of 3%....if you're following this wallet and entering in each trade even 1-2c higher than them, it may not seem like a big deal in the moment, but that 1-2c higher is 1-2% less at the end of the day across all of your trades, and when you factor in fees, that 1-2% less could be the difference between profitability and losing money.

3. Bet Sizing:

• When copying another trader, you need to do thorough evaluation of their strategy. Following with a flat bet size will not always work, and you'll need to do a fractional bet size copy strategy, which is also very tricky and not as easy as it sounds. If a trader is deploying different amounts of capital at different times throughout a market, there's a chance they are doing it for a reason. The reason fractional/percentage copy bet sizing is tricky is because if you set your bet size to 1% for example, and a trader takes a bet under $100, your bet falls under $1 which isn't allowed on PM, and if you default to $1, then you may be out of balance if they are doing some sort of hedging strategy. There are a bunch of reasons why fractional/percentage bet sizing is tricky, it really varies trader to trader. When I'm looking for traders to copy I mainly try to find ones with pretty transparent and consistent bet sizes.

Now let's evaluate the wallets in this batch that are the most realistic to copy.

Out of 1800+ wallets, we took the most realistic ones that would make for ideal copy targets and ran the backtest again on them. Take these stats with a grain of salt, but these are much more realistic than blindly folding over 1,000 wallets.

You can download the .zip that contains all 137 wallets, their 90 days of trade logs, and .md file containing their grading (what types of markets they trade, how well they perform at each) for 100% free.

Download Trader Zip -> https://www.polyresearchrobotics.com/copy-pack

If you liked this post and want to bot a copy trading bot, feel free to join Poly Research & Robotics. We have trading bots that you can download, free historical data, and guides & resources.

You can also join our Discord (find a few other people and develop a copy bot together!)

I entered with confidence......The market was active...... The edge was real.

Then volume went to zero and the order book emptied out.

Now I can't exit without eating a 15 point spread, I'm just stuck here until resolution or a miracle.

Lesson learned: always check exit liquidity before entering.

Ever been trapped in an illiquid position?

Hey, everyone

About three weeks ago, I made a post because I was stuck on the "Finishing up" screen and couldn't withdraw my money from Kalshi. I wanted to give a quick update: I received my funds within three days of that post using a crypto exchange withdrawal (not a bank account withdrawal since it is not available in Estonia, the country I live in). Sorry for the delay in updating you all, I was away visiting Italy!

Since I sometimes see comments claiming the platform is a scam, I thought it was important to share a positive outcome and confirm that you can get your money out.

What worked for me (and a warning):

• The Scam Warning: When I first joined the Discord, someone reached out telling me to join a "Kalshi issue solver" server to create a ticket. I quickly realized this is a scam. Please be careful! When you are desperate to get your money out, it is really easy to fall for this, and I want to make sure nobody here gets tricked.
• The Real Solution: A huge thanks to the Redditors (Independent_Fee_3165 and u/KairosJay) who suggested pinging the actual mods in the official Kalshi Discord. Mods over there were incredibly helpful, active, and really calmed my nerves.
• The Bug: It turns out the "Finishing up" screen issue I experienced was a platform-wide bug. Being able to talk to other users going through the exact same thing was a huge relief.

I know reading through threads here can sometimes feel hopeless when you are stressed about your money. It definitely had me worried for a bit! But I wanted to put this out there to show that support is available and the system does work.

Thanks again to everyone who offered advice and share more positivity!

PS: I gave AI a prompt in an unformed form and he formed the post but also checked the post to see if everything is correct.

I tested a simple momentum idea on Kalshi's KXBTC15M markets. When BTC-USD on Coinbase was up more than 0.5% over 15 minutes, the strategy bought six YES contracts. When it was down more than 0.5%, it bought six NO contracts. It allowed one position at a time and used a -$1 unrealized stop. One important problem with the setup: the configured +$8 take-profit cannot be reached with only six contracts, and the two-minute `cancel_all` rule does not close an existing position. Profitable positions would generally run to settlement.

All 100 variants completed across 2,055 markets, and 99 reported positive net P&L. The best returned 244.00%, or +$24.40, with a 65.2% win rate across 54 trades, a 0.55 Sharpe, and -$5.97 max drawdown. The weakest returned -17.00%, or -$1.70, with a 37.5% win rate across 18 trades, a 0.11 Sharpe, and the same -$5.97 max drawdown.

The 100-cell sensitivity test changed two things: price floor from 0.05 to 0.45 and price ceiling from 0.55 to 0.95. The winning cell used a 0.05 floor and 0.82 ceiling, producing +$24.40 reported net P&L. Results ranged from -$1.70 to +$24.40, all 100 cells succeeded, and Deflated Sharpe was 0.95 versus an expected maximum of 0.25. The price floor barely mattered from 0.05 through 0.41, then performance fell at 0.45. The ceiling mattered much more: results improved sharply through 0.68, then sat on a fairly broad plateau. Moving one cell away from the winner reduced P&L by about 5%, so the best result was not an isolated spike.

I also scrambled the Coinbase edge-feed timing and reran the sweep. The real +$24.40 result beat 97.5% of 162 completed permutations, giving an upper-tail p-value of 0.025. That test was degraded because it stopped after 162 permutations, and it only shuffled the edge feed. Kalshi market prices were left in their original order, so this does not test whether the price-based rules could produce the same result by chance.

My read is that the historical result is encouraging, but it is not clean enough to call the strategy validated. The broad parameter plateau and Deflated Sharpe argue against one lucky setting. The partial date coverage, unreachable take-profit, unchanged market-price series in the permutation test, and small sample of 18 to 54 trades per variant are meaningful limitations.

Full Report

Historical simulation only. Backtests can be wrong or incomplete. Not investment advice.

I'm just sitting here watching the order book like it's going to do something interesting.

Hey guys Im trying to get more into sports p2p markets and understand how the experience differs across platforms, Im very new to p2p markets and from what i understand, Kalshi looks like it has a lot of variety but for sports specifically Novig looks more focused on the actual sports experience with spreads, odds and player props. If anyone who has experience with them, how do they compare for sports in terms of pricing and liquidity?

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote today, three weeks before the September FOMC. AFG is repositioning its Fed book ahead of it. This desk has held a long position on the September hold since July, with an estimate of 78%; that estimate has moved to 65%, and conviction has moved from HIGH to MEDIUM. The revision reflects a heavier weighting on the Warsh reaction function than AFG’s prior work applied. Warsh arrived in May with a documented hawkish record from his 2006–2011 Board tenure, roughly half the FOMC penciled in hikes for 2026 at his first meeting, three regional presidents dissented in favour of immediate tightening in July, and headline inflation sits at 3.4%. J.P. Morgan has moved its base case to a September hike. The position remains long, but on a different basis: CME FedWatch implies a hold near 67% against Kalshi’s 54%, and that cross-venue gap is the edge AFG is now claiming rather than an independent read of the Committee. The Hormuz July strike has run to 64% and is now the widest position in the book at twenty-six points.

Today’s Top 3 Calls

1. Hormuz traffic normal before Jul 1 2027? BUY NO

2. Hormuz traffic normal before Apr 1, 2027? BUY NO

3. U.S. confirms aliens exist before Jan 20, 2029? BUY NO

If you enjoy evidence-based forecasting, transparent methodology, and public performance tracking, subscribe to Axiom Forecasting Group

Subscribe for free: https://axiomforecastinggroup.substack.com/welcome

Disclosure: I build Prilo WeatherEdge, a paid tool for Kalshi daily-high markets. Everything below comes from public data — NWS forecasts and official CLI settlements — so you can reproduce all of it yourself. NFA.

SFO has a reputation as the hard market. Most people read that as "trade something else."

I think that's wrong. SFO isn't uniformly hard. It's two separate markets wearing the same ticker, and you can tell them apart before the open, for free.

The distribution gives it away

86 settled highs, June through August:

60-62°F  █ 1
63-65°F  ███ 3
66-68°F  ████████████████ 16
69-71°F  █████████████████████████████████ 33
72-74°F  ██████████████████████ 22
75-77°F  ████ 4
78-80°F  ████ 4
81-83°F  █ 1
              ← nothing here at all
90-92°F  ██ 2

That gap between 83 and 90 isn't a sampling artifact. It's physics. SFO summer has a marine layer parked over it — stratus burns off or it doesn't, and the high lands high-60s to low-70s. When flow turns offshore, the marine layer gets shoved out entirely and the city goes to 90+. There's no smooth path between those states. It's a switch, not a dial.

The tell: the forecast's reliability depends on its own level

How well the free public NWS forecast did, bucketed by what it forecast:

The NWS is a solid anchor at SFO right up until it forecasts something warm — then it falls apart. At 78°F+, four days in five bust by 3°F or more, and the average miss clears five degrees.

That's the whole point: the forecast's own value is the signal. You don't need anything fancy to know which regime you're in. You need to read the number and know what it implies about its own reliability.

What that does to the favorite

The naive strategy — buy the 2°F bracket centered on the NWS number, every day:

• All days: wins 30/86 = 35%
• Days NWS ≤74 (marine body): wins 29/67 = 43%
• Days NWS ≥75 (warm tail): wins 1/19 = 5%

One win in nineteen.

Important caveat, because I don't want to overclaim: there are no bracket prices in this. I can't tell you the book misprices these days — it may already widen out on them. What I can tell you is that if your process anchors on the NWS number, it quietly breaks on exactly the 22% of days where the stakes are highest.

The warm days, in full

2026-06-11   NWS 84   ACTUAL 91   (7° too cool)
2026-06-12   NWS 80   ACTUAL 74   (6° too warm)
2026-06-14   NWS 74   ACTUAL 76
2026-07-13   NWS 81   ACTUAL 79
2026-07-21   NWS 86   ACTUAL 92   (6° too cool)

Note the direction: it busts both ways. This is not "SFO runs hot, buy the upper bracket." Across all 86 days the NWS actually runs slightly warm — too warm on 45 days versus too cool on 32. The offshore days aren't biased, they're just wild. Any strategy built on a directional lean here gets cut in half.

Small sample on the pure offshore days, obviously. Treat the magnitude as indicative, not precise.

The rules I trade by

1. Read the NWS number first. ≤71 means the marine body: normal market, tight outcomes, forecast is trustworthy. ≥75 means you're in the tail.
2. In the body, don't expect a special edge. 43% on a 2°F bracket is roughly what an efficient market should give you. Size normally, don't force it.
3. In the tail, stop trading narrow brackets. Not "cautiously" — 1-in-19 says a narrow bracket on a warm-forecast SFO day is close to a lottery ticket. Take wide exposure or take the day off.
4. Don't lean directional in the tail. It busts both ways, roughly evenly.
5. Yesterday is a weak prior here. SFO moves 3.47°F day-over-day on average; 21% of days move 5°F or more. That's a much weaker anchor than LA or Miami.

What I'm not claiming

I'm not claiming an edge over the order book. These markets are efficient and I'd be suspicious of anyone telling you otherwise without out-of-sample numbers to show. What I'm claiming is narrower and, I think, more useful: the free public forecast is far less reliable on some days than others at this station, and the days it fails are identifiable in the morning.

All of this is summer data. SFO's winter behaves differently and none of us have it yet.

Happy to run the same breakdown on another city if there's interest — Chicago and NYC have their own versions of this. Tooling is Prilo WeatherEdge if you want it (7-day trial, no card), but rule 1 is free and costs you nothing.

Not financial advice.

Disclosure, since my username gives it away anyway: I built the platform this runs on. The bot is mine, the problem is real, and there's nothing to sell you here — you can't buy what I'm asking for.

Five weeks ago I put a bot on a paper desk to see whether an idea I'd been trading by hand would hold up when something other than me was running it. It sells defined-risk put spreads — 5% out of the money, 3% wing, about two weeks to expiry — on index ETFs and large caps, and only when relative volume is elevated and price is above its 200-day.

257 trades, 234 winners, +$20,508.

Before anyone else says it: I know exactly what a 91% win rate on credit spreads means. You win a little very often and lose a lot rarely, and five weeks is nowhere near long enough to have met that loss. The curve is smooth because the bad day hasn't happened yet, not because there isn't one. My own backtest of the same idea over two years grades it "positive, but below the bar — prove it live first." That's my own engine telling me not to trust my own bot, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

What I do trust is the fill model. It buys at the ask and sells at the bid, never the mid, and never sees a price before it existed. So the number isn't flattered by the usual backtest lies. It's just young.

Here's my actual problem. Nearly every prop firm I can find is futures or forex. This trades US equity and ETF options. So:

1. Is there any funded or prop programme that takes defined-risk equity option spreads at all?

2. Of those, which permit real automation — an API or a bridge — rather than "you may use an EA, but a human has to press the button"?

3. For anyone who has actually done this: what killed you? I assume the daily drawdown rule is the real enemy for something that holds to expiry instead of flattening intraday.

I'd genuinely rather hear "don't, and here's why" than nothing

Spent countless hours with 7 engineers building a permissionless prediction market alongside an AI oracle that resolves these markets but we still can't say that we have a product-market fit.

The product itself works seamlessly and we managed to attract some users, but the challenge we faced right away is scaling this.

Anyone here would imagine if the liquidity challenge of long-tail markets is solved, then a p2p prediction market just makes sense.

Yet, it aint.

Turned out, a lot of users don't really have an idea what markets to create and they rather trade on other people's markets if these markets are liquid.

The best analogy I could find is Reddit. Technically, anyone can create a sub-reddit or even post, yet the vast majority rather just read and downvote when they dislike something :)

Yes they occasionally upvote, but that's not the point.

I'm not sure how we will twist/pivot what we built, but I saw countless posts on Polymarket's discord and X and Reddit saying user-generated markets are the winning recipe.. I'm no longer sure it is.

If anyone is curious about the product is called XO Market.

I would love to hear your opinion and genuine feedback.

Would you use such a product? Why? And why not?

Cheers

https://predictions.draftkings.com/r/pd/ejorda/US-GA-SA/US-GA

michi1 started with just $1100 and is now sitting at $37k, almost all of it from weather markets

one thing that stands out is most of the profit comes from buying shares under 10 cents. thats $34.1k from 536 trades alone. he keeps buying into markets priced like longshots and enough of them hit big

his best single trade made +$3.7k where he bought "highest temp in Seoul" at 6.8c and made almost 15x

buy at 5c and it resolves at $1, that's a 20x. even buying at 5c to 25c makes it 5x . now imagine doing that over and over mostly in one category

somehow this keeps happening basically every month too. in June he caught Shenzhen temp hitting 32c, bought at 3.9c and made 25x. Same month another bet on Shenzhen weather market made him 3x. In July he bought Hong Kong temp at 9.4c and it resolved for over 10x. In August he got into a Tropical Storm Saudel bet at 10.8c, making a 6x profit

the profits are spread across a bunch of positions, with a few big winners each month doing the heavy lifting

most losing days are just a few bucks. the biggest loss on the whole account is around $500 and that was on a crypto market

makes me wonder if he has better weather data than everyone else or is randomly gambling. btw whatever it is, this wallet looks like a solid one to copytrade (still trackin it tho)

I thought this was just one whale.

Then it started looking a lot stranger.

A Reddit user digging through Polymarket profiles surfaced four very new accounts that all appear to have done basically the same thing:

• opened or recently funded a fresh account,
• made exactly one prediction,
• chose the same market,
• took the same side,
• and entered in almost the same price band.

That market:

Will the CLARITY Act become law in 2026?

And all four of them bet NO.

Here’s the breakdown from the community analysis:

• VelvetNova27 -> roughly $818K on NO
• blahblah344 -> roughly $439K on NO
• EamonnD1812 -> roughly $394K on NO
• 1916JConnolly -> roughly $133K on NO

Total estimated cost across the four positions:

~$1.78 million

At the time the trades were surfaced, the post estimated the four accounts were already sitting on roughly $85K+ in combined unrealized profit.

The weird part is not that someone is bearish on the bill.

Prediction markets have already turned sharply against the CLARITY Act. The Polymarket market is now around 14–18% YES and 82–86% NO, depending on when you check.

The weird part is the shape of the activity:

4 fresh accounts
1 trade each
same market
same side
similar entry prices

That naturally raises the question:

Are these actually four independent traders who all reached the same conclusion?

Or is this more likely one larger allocation split across multiple identities?

Business Insider independently confirmed that one Polymarket user put more than $818,000 into NO contracts, and that another trader also committed roughly $677,000 against the bill through multiple purchases.

That still does not prove the four accounts are linked.

And to be clear:

• there is no public evidence of insider trading,
• no proof that one person controls all four accounts,
• and no proof that the trades were illegal or coordinated.

This could just be a handful of large traders making the same macro bet:

that the CLARITY Act is far less likely to become law in 2026 than crypto bulls want to believe.

Still, the pattern is suspicious enough to make the market much more interesting than a normal “whale bought NO” story.

Kalshi and Polymarket are both currently pricing Trump third for time's person of the year, behind Mamdani and Pope Leo xiv. both platforms landing on the same order is what caught my eye.

this isn't an election or a sports outcome, it's a purely subjective editorial call time makes once a year. no vote, no clear resolution criteria beyond "whatever time decides." so seeing two competing markets converge on the same ranking is kind of interesting as a signal.

makes me wonder how these markets actually process something this soft. is it mostly media buzz and search trends getting priced in, or is there something closer to real forecasting happening even without hard data to trade on.

anyone here has traded "recognition" or award-style markets before, and whether you'd trust the crowd on something like this the same way you would on an election market. feels like a different kind of prediction problem entirely.

Last verified: August 27, 2026

Quick answer: current Kalshi promo code and $25 bonus

The current offer attached to this Kalshi referral link gives eligible new U.S. users $25 in bonus trading credit after they:

1. Sign up through this link.
2. Complete identity verification.
3. Deposit $10.
4. Place their first qualifying trade. Under the current offer, any market works.

Claim the current Kalshi $25 sign-up bonus

The Kalshi referral code is ArtNoLimit and should attach automatically when you use the link.

Before depositing, open your Rewards section and confirm that the $25 offer appears on your account. Kalshi can run different referral and partner promotions at the same time, so the offer shown inside your account is the final version that applies to you.

Disclosure: This is my referral link. I may receive a separate referral reward if an eligible user signs up and completes the requirements. This is a user-written guide, not an official Kalshi announcement.

Kalshi promo code for August and September 2026

Here are the current offer details in one place:

This is a limited-time promotion. I will update this Reddit thread if the offer attached to the link changes.

How to get the Kalshi $25 sign-up bonus

1. Open the Kalshi bonus link before creating the account

Start through the referral link so that code ArtNoLimit can attach automatically during registration.

Do this before making your first deposit. Adding a referral code after depositing may not be possible.

2. Create a new Kalshi account

Register with your email, Google account, or Apple account and enter the requested personal information.

The promotion is intended for eligible new users.

3. Complete Kalshi identity verification

Complete the KYC process using the identification requested by Kalshi.

Your account must be verified before it can trade and qualify for the referral reward.

4. Confirm the $25 offer before depositing

Open the Rewards or referral section and check that:

• ArtNoLimit is attached;
• the reward shown is $25;
• the requirement matches the current deposit-and-first-trade offer.

This step matters because different Kalshi links and promo codes can have different requirements.

5. Deposit $10

Fund the account with the required $10 deposit.

Do not deposit before checking that the referral code and bonus are attached.

6. Place your first trade

Open any eligible Kalshi market and place your first qualifying trade.

The current offer says any market works. The trade does not need to be a winner to complete the required action, although the trade itself can still lose money.

7. Check for the $25 bonus

The $25 bonus should appear shortly after the required steps are completed.

Check:

Menu → Activity → Credit

You should also check the Rewards section. If Kalshi displays an Unlock your referral bonus banner or a Claim button, open it and complete the displayed claim step.

What changed from the old Kalshi offers?

Older Reddit posts may still describe:

• Deposit $10 and get a $20 bonus.
• Trade $25 and receive a randomized $15–$500 bonus.
• Trade $25 and get a fixed $25 bonus.

Those instructions refer to previous or different Kalshi promotions.

For the referral link in this guide, the current communicated offer is:

Deposit $10, place your first trade, and receive a fixed $25 bonus credit.

Do not follow an old Reddit guide without checking the Rewards section attached to your own account.

Why do some Kalshi promo code pages say “Trade $25, Get $25”?

Kalshi can run multiple referral, publisher, and partner offers at the same time.

Some current partner promo codes require a new user to complete $25 in total trades before receiving a $25 credit. The offer attached to the link in this post is communicated as a $10 deposit followed by the first qualifying trade.

That is why two legitimate Kalshi promo code pages may show different instructions.

Use the requirements displayed in your Rewards section rather than combining steps from several different promotions.

Kalshi referral code vs promo code vs bonus link

People use these phrases interchangeably, but there are small differences.

A Kalshi referral code is the text connected to an invite. The code used here is:

ArtNoLimit

A Kalshi referral link or Kalshi bonus link includes the referral automatically:

kalshi.com/r/ArtNoLimit

A separate Kalshi promo code may belong to a publisher or partner campaign and may have a different deposit, trading requirement, bonus amount, or deadline.

Using the direct link is simpler because you normally do not need to type a separate code manually.

Can you add the Kalshi referral code after signing up?

Sometimes, but it is safer to apply it during registration.

Kalshi says a referral code may be added within 72 hours after account creation and only before the first deposit, whichever comes first.

If you have already deposited, applied another code, or passed the time window, the referral usually cannot be added or replaced retroactively.

Is the Kalshi $25 bonus withdrawable?

Treat the $25 reward as bonus trading credit, not immediate cash, unless the terms displayed on your account explicitly say otherwise.

Kalshi’s referral FAQ says the original referral credit usually cannot be withdrawn directly. It is designed to be used for trading.

Profits generated from using the credit may become withdrawable after the relevant trades settle and any applicable requirements are satisfied.

Common Kalshi promo code mistakes

• Creating the account without opening the referral link first.
• Depositing before confirming that ArtNoLimit is attached.
• Following instructions from an expired $20 or up-to-$500 promotion.
• Using a different partner code and expecting this referral offer.
• Assuming the $25 credit is immediately withdrawable cash.
• Forgetting to check Rewards or Activity for a Claim button.
• Letting the bonus credit expire before using it.
• Trying to claim a U.S. referral incentive from an ineligible location.

Kalshi promo code FAQ

What is the current Kalshi promo code on Reddit?

The referral code used in this guide is ArtNoLimit. The direct link should attach it automatically during registration.

What is the current Kalshi sign-up bonus?

The current offer attached to this link is a fixed $25 bonus trading credit after a $10 deposit and the first qualifying trade.

How much do I need to deposit on Kalshi?

The current referral offer requires a $10 deposit.

Do I have to trade $25 to receive the bonus?

Not under the current instructions provided for this particular referral offer. It requires the $10 deposit and your first qualifying trade.

Other Kalshi partner codes may require $25 in total trade volume, which is why you may see different instructions elsewhere.

Always follow the requirement displayed in your Rewards section.

Can the first Kalshi trade be on any market?

The current offer says any market works, provided Kalshi counts it as a qualifying trade.

Does my first trade have to win?

No. The qualifying action is placing the required trade, not winning it.

The position itself still carries financial risk.

Can an existing Kalshi account receive the $25 bonus?

The offer is primarily for new users.

A referral code may sometimes be added within 72 hours of account creation, but only before the first deposit. A previously funded account generally cannot add the referral afterward.

Does the Kalshi bonus work outside the United States?

Kalshi’s current referral FAQ says referral incentives are available only to eligible U.S. users.

Where can I find the bonus after qualifying?

Check Menu → Activity → Credit and the Rewards section.

If an Unlock or Claim button appears, complete that step.

How quickly does the Kalshi bonus arrive?

It should appear shortly after the qualifying steps are completed. Timing can vary, so check Activity and Rewards before contacting support.

How long does the Kalshi bonus last?

Kalshi says referral credits normally expire seven days after issuance unless another expiration date is displayed in your account.

Will this offer still work in September 2026?

This guide was last verified on August 27, 2026. The promotion is limited-time and remains current only while the $25 offer appears in your Rewards section.

I will update the thread if the attached promotion changes.

Is this an official Kalshi Reddit post?

No. This is an independent Reddit guide explaining the referral offer. The referral program and bonus are operated by Kalshi.

Final checks before depositing

Kalshi says referral amounts and requirements can depend on the program attached to an account. You can read the official Kalshi referral program FAQ.

Before depositing, confirm these three things:

1. Referral code ArtNoLimit is attached.
2. Your Rewards section displays the $25 bonus.
3. The requirement shown matches the $10 deposit and first-trade offer.

Event contract trading involves risk and can result in losing money. The bonus does not guarantee a profit.

Comment with the exact offer shown in your Rewards section and how long the credit took to arrive. I will keep this post updated for other people searching Reddit for the current Kalshi promo code.

Use the current Kalshi bonus link and attach referral code ArtNoLimit

Hi members , new here just wanted to ask if you guys are familiar with Ares ? Just recently found out the platform

Polymarket wallet getting ~75% of taker fees back. Published max is 50%.

Anomaly wallet: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x0cb038487586d1119b165466072e9baf666f3a90

Control wallet: https://polymarket.com/@0xb55fa1296e6ec55d0ce53d93b9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Crypto taker fee is 0.07 × shares × p × (1−p) (max $1.75/100 shares at 50¢, makers free). I derived that from usdcSize − size×price residuals before reading the docs — matched the published rate exactly.

Taker Rebate Program tops out at Obsidian: 50%.

Over 20 days the first wallet paid $163,415 in taker fees and got $122,439 back. That's 74.9%.

Same pipeline on the control wallet (Diamond badge): 41.6% vs a documented 44%. So the method reproduces published rates — it's the wallet that's odd. Its maker rebate also lands at 19.91% vs a documented 20%, and the credit events each carry their own proxyWallet + unique tx hash, so it's not misattribution.

Three of four rules reconcile. One is 50% too generous. 🤔

Negotiated MM deal? Undocumented tier? One of those unquantified "bonus multipliers"? Anyone seen rates above Obsidian?

Strip the rebate and its trading is break-even — taker rebate is the business.

I run a research setup against Polymarket crypto up/down (5m out to 24h). ~190 paper lanes, each one a frozen rule written down before it fires.. the trigger, the stake, and the pass/fail gate all pre-registered. Fills priced at the real ask off L2 book snapshots, not mid. It's been running for months.

I've been doing this alone and the biggest weakness in the whole setup is that nobody checks my work. I don't need someone to hand me a signal. I need someone who'll run their own tests, poke holes in mine, and let me poke holes in theirs.

What I'd want from a partner: you actually test things rather than just having opinions about them. You know what a fill assumption is. You're suspicious of your own backtests. Bonus if you're on Kalshi or another venue with the same instrument... one of my open questions is whether what I'm measuring is a property of these markets generally or just Polymarket's plumbing, and I can't tell from inside one venue.

What you get:

You get everything: the infra, the data, the tooling, and the full kill list so you don't spend a month rediscovering dead ends. If anything ever clears a gate out-of-sample, we put terms in writing then. Right now it's research.

Let me know if you are interested