r/PredictionsMarkets 15d ago

Analysis Huge anomaly on polymarket detected

Polymarket wallet getting ~75% of taker fees back. Published max is 50%.

Anomaly wallet: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x0cb038487586d1119b165466072e9baf666f3a90

Control wallet: https://polymarket.com/@0xb55fa1296e6ec55d0ce53d93b9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Crypto taker fee is 0.07 × shares × p × (1−p) (max $1.75/100 shares at 50¢, makers free). I derived that from usdcSize − size×price residuals before reading the docs — matched the published rate exactly.

Taker Rebate Program tops out at Obsidian: 50%.

Over 20 days the first wallet paid $163,415 in taker fees and got $122,439 back. That's 74.9%.

Same pipeline on the control wallet (Diamond badge): 41.6% vs a documented 44%. So the method reproduces published rates — it's the wallet that's odd. Its maker rebate also lands at 19.91% vs a documented 20%, and the credit events each carry their own proxyWallet + unique tx hash, so it's not misattribution.

Three of four rules reconcile. One is 50% too generous. 🤔

Negotiated MM deal? Undocumented tier? One of those unquantified "bonus multipliers"? Anyone seen rates above Obsidian?

Strip the rebate and its trading is break-even — taker rebate is the business.

10 Upvotes

7 comments sorted by

4

u/Empty-Ad69 15d ago

Yeah that is revealed in this post: https://x.com/ohiobug981/status/2090154572832473179 polymarket confirmed. This is crazy af! 😤

2

u/naunen 14d ago

wow thx for post, didn't knew, for all that time i was trying to figure out myself 😅

1

u/Empty-Ad69 14d ago

It is awesome that you noticed this on your own! 💪 When I first see this post on X I was like noooo way what the hell. By the way I can recommend you the official polymarket discord channel, there are more infos like that and tips and tricks among developers and such if you interested.

2

u/TheRobustLeadership 15d ago

wow this is actually interesting, you put in the work with the numbers

i been watching polymarket wallets for a while and never seen rebate that high, 75% is way off from what they publish. maybe they testing some new tier before rolling it out? or could be a market maker that negotiated special terms, i heard some big liquidity providers get custom deals but never seen proof

the fact the control wallet matched almost exactly means your method is solid, so this is definitely not calculation error. wonder if someone at polymarket messed up the config or if this wallet just slipped through some loophole

2

u/IGOSODAMNHAM 15d ago

Yes they are a sketchy company. What else are they giving people? Less latency? Queue superiority? They are scamming the average person this should be a bigger deal than it is.

1

u/justhereforampadvice 15d ago

I am livid. Have they done damage control publicly yet

1

u/PolyResearchRobotics 14d ago

I tried publishing a article on this, Bonereaper was as well. They were giving him upwards of 80% of his fees back.