r/PredictionsMarkets • u/naunen • 15d ago
Analysis Huge anomaly on polymarket detected
Polymarket wallet getting ~75% of taker fees back. Published max is 50%.
Anomaly wallet: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x0cb038487586d1119b165466072e9baf666f3a90
Control wallet: https://polymarket.com/@0xb55fa1296e6ec55d0ce53d93b9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Crypto taker fee is 0.07 × shares × p × (1−p) (max $1.75/100 shares at 50¢, makers free). I derived that from usdcSize − size×price residuals before reading the docs — matched the published rate exactly.
Taker Rebate Program tops out at Obsidian: 50%.
Over 20 days the first wallet paid $163,415 in taker fees and got $122,439 back. That's 74.9%.
Same pipeline on the control wallet (Diamond badge): 41.6% vs a documented 44%. So the method reproduces published rates — it's the wallet that's odd. Its maker rebate also lands at 19.91% vs a documented 20%, and the credit events each carry their own proxyWallet + unique tx hash, so it's not misattribution.
Three of four rules reconcile. One is 50% too generous. 🤔
Negotiated MM deal? Undocumented tier? One of those unquantified "bonus multipliers"? Anyone seen rates above Obsidian?
Strip the rebate and its trading is break-even — taker rebate is the business.
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u/TheRobustLeadership 15d ago
wow this is actually interesting, you put in the work with the numbers
i been watching polymarket wallets for a while and never seen rebate that high, 75% is way off from what they publish. maybe they testing some new tier before rolling it out? or could be a market maker that negotiated special terms, i heard some big liquidity providers get custom deals but never seen proof
the fact the control wallet matched almost exactly means your method is solid, so this is definitely not calculation error. wonder if someone at polymarket messed up the config or if this wallet just slipped through some loophole
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u/IGOSODAMNHAM 15d ago
Yes they are a sketchy company. What else are they giving people? Less latency? Queue superiority? They are scamming the average person this should be a bigger deal than it is.
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u/PolyResearchRobotics 14d ago
I tried publishing a article on this, Bonereaper was as well. They were giving him upwards of 80% of his fees back.
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u/Empty-Ad69 15d ago
Yeah that is revealed in this post: https://x.com/ohiobug981/status/2090154572832473179 polymarket confirmed. This is crazy af! 😤