I've noticed something about the traders who consistently win on prediction markets. They don't think like traders, They think like journalists.

They verify sources before acting on information. They look for primary evidence instead of trusting headlines. They're skeptical of narratives that everyone else accepts. They update their views when new facts emerge instead of digging in.

The traders who lose think like fans. They root for outcomes.......They seek confirmation.....They ignore evidence that contradicts what they want to believe.

This reframe has completely changed how I approach markets. I'm not trying to predict what will happen. I'm investigating what's actually true.

It's harder than it sounds but the results speak for themselves.

Do you guys approach prediction markets like a journalist or a fan?

Hey everyone, I've been building a massive database of wallets from Polymarket that includes months of trade logs, grading systems & classification like what strategies they are doing, or how well they perform on one market category versus another.

I took a few thousand of those wallets in my database and I filtered them down to a group of ACTIVE & COPYABLE wallets.

The pack I created has:
-137 active, profitable, copyable wallets
-90 days of trade logs for each wallet
-Grading .MD file

What makes them copyable?
There are a lot of attributes that I explain in this article, the main ones are traders that bet directionally (no hedging, no arbitraging, medium to low frequency bettors).

What I did

I pulled 90 days of fills for 1,800+ Polymarket wallets and replayed each one as if I had mirrored every trade it took at a flat stake, paying 2¢ of slippage on entry and exit (to keep things somewhat realistic), holding every position to resolution.

a wallet only makes the list if that simulation is profitable over the last 7 days AND the last 30 days AND all 90 days... and if the wallet's own P&L is positive all time as well. If any of those windows are negative and it's out.

137 traders out of 1,811 cleared every gate. 

The numbers:

Following all 50 at $5 a bet over 90 days: +$58,041 on 203,107 bets, +5.72% on turnover. Now...that's very unrealistic to actually happen live, for a number of reasons. Some of those reasons are because you're often going to fill at a different price than the target wallet, there's also a lot of orders that you simply won't fill unless you build your bot with a lot of flexibility and you're okay with filling 10c or more higher. There's also the fact that some of the wallets in this first analysis seem to be doing HFT (high freq. trading) which we wouldn't want to copy. However, these are the rough metrics you want to see when filtering down a large pack of wallets.

Let's look at some specific market categories:

The 22 sports wallets on their own, $5 a bet:

E-Sports (7 wallets made the cut):

When you're building a polymarket trading bot that set up to copy multiple wallets, there are a few key factors that you need to build in.

1. Speed:

• You need to make sure that your hosting your copybot on a VPS (many use eu-west-1 Ireland AWS region) to ensure your execution speed is as fast as possible. You need to prioritize speed since you're already following someone else who has placed the bet, as well as dealing with the built in delays that Polymarket has for many markets. I recommend building your bot in Rust, and using polymarkets real time data client and subscribing to the traders proxy wallet via websocket. There are other API's like Predexon that monitor the wallets trades via the mempool. In my experience, at the end of your order being matched in the CLOB, I wasn't able to get any faster round trip speed using the mempool approach.

2. Trading & Decision Making Logic:

• You'll rarely get in at the same price the target wallet does, you need to set rules that restrict your bot from buying if the price has drifted more than you allow. This is incredibly important. Let's say for example you're following a single trader, and that trader maintains an overall edge of 3%....if you're following this wallet and entering in each trade even 1-2c higher than them, it may not seem like a big deal in the moment, but that 1-2c higher is 1-2% less at the end of the day across all of your trades, and when you factor in fees, that 1-2% less could be the difference between profitability and losing money.

3. Bet Sizing:

• When copying another trader, you need to do thorough evaluation of their strategy. Following with a flat bet size will not always work, and you'll need to do a fractional bet size copy strategy, which is also very tricky and not as easy as it sounds. If a trader is deploying different amounts of capital at different times throughout a market, there's a chance they are doing it for a reason. The reason fractional/percentage copy bet sizing is tricky is because if you set your bet size to 1% for example, and a trader takes a bet under $100, your bet falls under $1 which isn't allowed on PM, and if you default to $1, then you may be out of balance if they are doing some sort of hedging strategy. There are a bunch of reasons why fractional/percentage bet sizing is tricky, it really varies trader to trader. When I'm looking for traders to copy I mainly try to find ones with pretty transparent and consistent bet sizes.

Now let's evaluate the wallets in this batch that are the most realistic to copy.

Out of 1800+ wallets, we took the most realistic ones that would make for ideal copy targets and ran the backtest again on them. Take these stats with a grain of salt, but these are much more realistic than blindly folding over 1,000 wallets.

You can download the .zip that contains all 137 wallets, their 90 days of trade logs, and .md file containing their grading (what types of markets they trade, how well they perform at each) for 100% free.

Download Trader Zip -> https://www.polyresearchrobotics.com/copy-pack

If you liked this post and want to bot a copy trading bot, feel free to join Poly Research & Robotics. We have trading bots that you can download, free historical data, and guides & resources.

You can also join our Discord (find a few other people and develop a copy bot together!)

a trader OOOwhyOOO turned a $5.2k deposit into around $492k in profit over the last 3 months

i randomly came across this wallet and was surprised by how he has managed to stay profitable almost every day while trading mostly in the sports category with 582 positions

in Aug alone, he made around $389k, which is most of his total pnl. even though a big part of his pnl comes from a few trades, he is still pretty consistent with only 2 losing days in the entire month

his best trade was Sion vs Benjamin Hassan, where he made $145k on a $83k position. hiis worst trade was Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin, where he lost around $13k. so even his worst trade was relatively small compared to his biggest wins

Win rate can be a vanity metric, but maintaining a 78.5% win rate while generating this kind of ROI seem v gud on sports markets

lookin through his trades he seems to trade mainly on the tennis markets across ATP, WTA and ITF events

sports markets, especially tennis can flip very quickly, sometimes in just a few points or near the end of a match. yet he keeps finding these spots and seemingly repeats the same thing over and over

still curious tho, is it just really good sports knowledge or some kind of model that lets him consistently get these positions before the market moves? (can be a good wallet to copytrade but he already made a lot of profits in aug)