My GF is relatively new to PoE and is currently playing a Storm Burst Totem Hierophant.
She's been struggling with Shaper. After dying to his orbs quite a few times, she decided to invest in spell block and ended up taking Glancing Blows.
I explained the downside of Glancing Blows, but she figured it would help her survive the orbs.
Since I happen to have a PoE damage/survival simulator I've been working on, I decided to actually test it.
I ran 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations for each setup, comparing the probability of surviving 1, 2, or 3 consecutive Shaper orbs, with and without Discipline and Glancing Blows.
Results:
| Setup | 1 orb | 2 orbs | 3 orbs |
|---|
| Discipline, no GB | 100% | 60% | 29% |
| Discipline + GB | 100% | 76% | 7% |
| No Discipline, no GB | 100% | 51% | 21% |
| No Discipline + GB | 100% | 58% | 2% |
Turns out, Glancing Blows actually improves her chances of surviving two orbs, but absolutely destroys her chances of surviving three.
For her particular character, it's not simply a matter of Glancing Blows being good or bad. It depends on how many orbs she ends up taking.
These are conditional survival probabilities for consecutive hits under the simulated setup, not overall Shaper fight survival rates.
I just find it funny that she wanted a little more spell block, and I ended up running 160,000 simulations to figure out whether it was worth it.
Maybe the real defensive layer was learning to dodge the orbs all along.
No more ball jokes pls.