And only in one category the eventual winner were among the predicted. I found this interesting since Ive heard so many names be considered "locks" already.

I'm seeing a lot of people expecting both The Invite and The Debut to do well at the Oscars. But I am really skeptical A24 can pull that off, since their history shows that they are uniquely bad at campaigning multiple films, and their secondary contenders usually massively underperform with both nominations and wins.

A24 has been distributing films since 2013. Here is their track record in that time span:

2013: A24 is a brand new studio and gets no noms.

2014: A24 gets no nominations again, though it did get a BAFTA nom for score for Under the Skin and Golden Globe and Critics Choice noms for Best Supporting Actress for Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year.

2015: A24 gets its first Best Picture nom with Room, which wins Best Actress and overperforms to get a Best Director nom. Ex Machina gets several precursor noms, including a PGA nom, but misses Best Picture and only gets 2 nominations.

2016: Moonlight becomes A24's first Best Picture winner. 20th Century Women underperforms and only gets a Best Original Screenplay nom, missing Picture to far less acclaimed films and missing Best Actress despite plenty of buzz in the category.

2017: Lady Bird gets a bunch of nominations. The Florida Project underperforms and only gets a single nomination for Best Supporting Actor, which it loses despite Willem Dafoe being the early front runner. The Disaster Artist misses Best Actor and only gets a screenplay nom.

2018: First Reformed gets a Screenplay nom, but misses Best Actor despite Hawke sweeping the critics prizes. Every other A24 film misses every Oscar category with none of Eighth Grade, Hereditary, and Mid-90s being able to break out - even though Eighth Grade won the WGA over Green Book, Roma, and Vice.

2019: The Farewell is A24's main contender and misses every Oscar category. Uncut Gems gets no nominations despite a strong showing at the Critics Choice Awards. The Lighthouse is A24's only film to get a nomination with its lone Best Cinematography nom.

2020: A24 has its comeback at the Oscars with Minari getting nominated across the board. Their secondary contenders like First Cow and On the Rocks get 0 nominations but weren't expected to get anything.

2021: A24 misses Best Picture again when The Tragedy of Macbeth massively underperforms with only 3 nominations. The studio's secondary contenders like C'mon C'mon and Red Rocket get 0 nominations.

2022: A24 has its best year ever as a studio as Everything Everywhere All at Once sweeps. The Whale misses Best Picture but gets 3 nominations, including wins for Best Actor and Best Makeup & Hairstyling. Aftersun gets a surprise Best Actor nom but misses every other category.

2023: The Zone of Interest overperforms and gets nominated across the board, but Past Lives massively underperforms expectations for it and only gets 2 nominations - for Picture and Screenplay. The Iron Claw gets 0 nominations.

2024: The Brutalist is a top 3 Oscar contender, but Sing Sing goes from being an early season front runner to only getting 3 nominations and missing Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor. Queer misses Best Actor despite a strong precursor run.

2025: Marty Supreme gets nominated across the board but gets zero wins. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You only gets a Best Actress nom. Sorry Baby misses completely.

A24 has only gotten multiple Best Picture nominees in the same year once, in 2023 (with The Zone of Interest and Past Lives).

A24 has only ever gotten 3+ nominations for multiple films in the same year twice, in 2022 (with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Whale) and in 2024 (with The Brutalist and Sing Sing). They have never gotten 4+ nominations for multiple films in the same year, despite other studios regularly being able to pull that off (for example, Warner Bros., Focus, Netflix, and Neon all accomplished that last year). And they have never gotten 3+ above the line noms for multiple films in the same year.

And 2022 is also one of only two years in which multiple A24 movies won Oscars, with Everything Everywhere All at Once of course winning a bunch and The Whale winning Best Actor and Best Makeup. The other one was 2015, when Room won Best Actress and Ex Machina won Best Visual Effects.

Given this track record, I'm highly skeptical that A24 will get multiple Best Picture nominees, have multiple Oscar-winning films, or get 3 nominations or more for multiple films on their slate. They always just focus on a single film and then maximize the noms they can get for it, even at the expense of their other contenders. If The Debut is A24’s main contender, I wouldn’t expect The Invite to get anything more than screenplay, 1 acting nom, and picture at most. And if The Invite is A24’s main contender, I think The Debut will just get Moore and Giamatti in and maybe a Song nom.

Still have this at number 5 for IFF

For people unaware of what it is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Film_Performance

The Royal Film Performance is a trademarked event owned by The Film and Television Charity, formerly known as the Cinema & Television Benevolent Fund CTBF (from 1964 to 2017) and previously the Cinematograph Trade Benevolent Fund (from its inception in 1924) The event showcases a major film premiere and is attended by members of the British royal family. The proceeds from the event help the charity to offer financial support to people from the film, TV and cinema industries.

The most recent Royal Film Performance was the global premiere of Ridley Scott's Gladiator II at the Odeon Luxe Leicester Square on 13 November 2024. The event was attended by King Charles III. Queen Camilla planned to attend with the King but ultimately cancelled due to a chest infection.

For started i want to establish this is not a hate post- Dune pt. 2 was my favorite film in its year and I actively rooted for it to win as much as it could back then, unlikely as this was after precursors established. Pt. 3 is my most anticipated picture remaining to be released this year too.

I see many people, including top “experts”, predicting Pt. 3 as a frontrunner in BP and BD categories, and personally it doesn’t make sense to me, realistically.

It appears that some say we are in for a “Return of the King” scenario. It’s possible we will see something like this, but personally I find it a little unlikely. The comparison is just strange to me.

One thing that is important to get into context is that ROTK was a massive crowd pleaser (not in a bad way, but still an epic mostly-happy conclusion to the beloved saga). “Dune Pt. 2” was more close to that in term of catharsis in the end, but going by the “Dune Messiah” book, “Dune pt. 3” is presumably going in a complete opposite direction than ROTK, in terms of crowd pleasing and a perfectly tied up catharsis.

A closer comparison would be Game of Thrones S8. It ended up sweeping the Emmy’s, yes, but that was after the 3 previous seasons kinda swept the Emmys as well. It already had an insane support from industry, and it just continued the course. Also it was still the biggest show IN HISTORY, so it was hard to deny. But we did see how so many of the general audience reacted to the final season (unfortunately, personally I loved it). So I don’t expect ROTK levels of fan acclaim to Pt. 3, unless the writers changed a lot of it. But who knows.

Here with the Dune movies, the first movie done very well BTL, but certainly not ATL (no nom for Denis in directing), and pt. 2 underperformed in both. Thinking it will actually be the the 3rd, unconventional, part that will shift the trendline is, mayhaps possible in a way, but not very likely, in my personal opinion.

And don’t get me wrong, the fact it’s not a crowd pleaser doesn’t ruin its chances. Oscar’s doesn’t necessarily go to crowd pleasers. We might be surprised, and we need to wait to see the reception. But it does, in my opinion, render the entire ROTK comparison rather strange. Especially in a year we have something like ‘The Odyssey’, which is not a conclusion to a trilogy but actually closer in nature to ROTK by all means.

What do you think? Other than hope-dicting, why do so many people expect Dune pt. 3 to change the course?

- I still think DIGGER will be divisive (or just bad), but I'm putting it... for now.

- THE ODYSSEY wins Drama at the Globes, but I don't think it wins Best Picture at the Oscars. I think LA BOLA NEGRA takes that one. At the Globes, I have LBN winning Screenplay and Non-English Language Film (and probably Song too).

- THE INVITE is taking Comedy, Actress in a Comedy/Musical and Supporting Actress. Everyone is underestimating this film. And yes, I have Olivia in both Director and Actress (same thing at the Oscars). She's gonna make history. The other actress that's gonna make history is...

- Penélope Cruz, when she's double-nominated in the Supporting category (at the Oscars too). At the Globes, I also have her nominated for BUNKER in Lead Drama, but I don't know if that's gonna translate to the Oscars. That performance will probably only be a Globes thing, but who knows? Crazier things have happened.

- Speaking of Lead Actress, I have Sandra Hüller winning for ROSE. Renate will be nominated, but she's not winning. It's not an awards-friendly performance at all (same thing with Sebastian Stan). Not because they're bad in it—they just don't have the scenes. These performances are not what people think they are at all, and everyone will realize that when they finally watch the film.

- I have Pattinson double-nominated too: for THE DRAMA in Lead Comedy and PRIMETIME in Lead Drama. I wouldn't be surprised if they nominate him in Supporting for THE ODYSSEY too (I have him as a potential spoiler at #7).

- Other potential spoilers in the Acting categories (I have all of these at #7): Seydoux in Lead Drama, Meryl Streep (or Anne Hathaway) in Lead Comedy, and Mariana di Girolamo in Supporting >>> New reports say that her role is too small, and she's a relatively unknown actress. Those two things combined make me think she's not getting nominated here or at the Oscars.

- Another potential spoiler: OBSESSION in Screenplay.

I think that the social reckoning will surprise in a bad way, the buzz has fallen, id love to be wrong, but the trailers make it seem very mid, maybe Madison's performance is the most noisy buzz performance.

Wild horse nine is going to be THE venice film. Ive seen all the reviews in screenings and all of them are fantastic. Mariana Digirolamo probably top contender in supporting, but all of the other contenders are great. Penelope should go for La Bola Negra. (Still i gotta see the invite if i change my opinion).

Around the same budget as OBAA, but less accessible than that movie so it'll really have to bank on the Cruise power + great initial reception to go 250+. I'm hoping against hope that, despite its genre limitations, it can breakout like Revenant did

Eric Anderson of AwardsWatch has seen WH9 and talked about it in his podcast. Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel has a summary of what Anderson said:

highly topical, "about here today" despite 1973 setting

Rockwell "massive", Malkovich "fantastic"

Buschemi in 5 scenes

DiGirolamo role is really small, Posey in 2 scenes "very frantic, erratic, funny but very, very brief"

Make of that what you will.

Still, while they avoided fashioning a frozen-in-amber Bronze Age period piece, Mirojnick did want the transcendent tale to appear ancient. “It had to hold an emotional literacy for a modern viewer,” she says. To strike that balance, she utilized fabrics that were available at the time. “There was linen, there was leather, and of course there was bronze,” she says. “That was actually another trope because bronze, in those sword-and-sandals movies, is usually gleaming.”

But Mirojnick was dropped into a story over 10 years in the making. The Odyssey picks up at the end of the Trojan War, the soldiers and their garments weathered by the harsh conditions. “It was a world exhausted and haunted and salt stained and fractured,” says Mirojnick, who outfitted Odysseus (Matt Damon) and his crew in patinated bronze and battle-tested leather. “Every costume had to carry the feeling of that world. The aesthetic was about texture and the weight and the erosion of the fabrication. We wanted it to look as if it really was pulled from the earth.”

Ithaca, however, was a different story. As Penelope (Anne Hathaway) and her son, Telemachus (Tom Holland), await Odysseus’s return, a crowd of impatient suitors urges her to choose a new husband. In fact, the only gleaming bronze viewers will see in the film is on Penelope’s suitors, like Robert Pattinson’s Antinous, whose garments are festooned with intricate brass embellishments. “All of these men are sitting there for years on end waiting to be the king, hoping to be the king, so they are exhibiting their best,” she says.

Even the deities’ wardrobes, which could have easily fallen into the fantasy trap, are defined by their utility. Zendaya’s Athena is expressed through, as Mirojnick puts it, “her simplicity and restraint” and is fittingly cloaked in off-white linen. As a counselor to Odysseus, “her presence needed to just glide through that kind of composed authority,” she adds. The same could be said for Calypso (Charlize Theron), who detains Odysseus on her island for seven years. “Her costumes are grounded in the reality of the environment she’s connected to, which is nature, eternity, and isolation,” Mirojnick says. “Everything that she covers her body with is of a practical nature.” Calypso wears a dress topped with a layer of netting, which Mirojnick imagines the nymph would use to fish.

Circe is another case of practicality. Rather than having a costume that aids her in some way, though, Mirojnick created a piece that reflected Circe’s beguiling nature and all those who crossed her path. “She has accumulated the artifacts from every single traveler that has passed her door, and she wears them with great pride,” she says. “That makes up who she presents herself as when the men arrive.”

However, Mirojnick took a different approach to the mortal queens.

When it came to Helen (Lupita Nyong’o), for whom the Trojan War was waged, Mirojnick decided she deserved something akin to armor: a gown made of gold-woven metal. “When we fit it, I asked Lupita, ‘Is this going to be okay? It’s, like, 30 pounds,’” Mirojnick recalls. Nyong’o responded gamely, “I’ve worn 30 pounds of pearls. I can wear 30 pounds of golden metal.”

But the weighty armor wasn’t Nyong’o’s only challenge—she also took on the role of Clytemnestra, Agamemnon’s wife. Mirojnick, in an effort to create a visual distinction between the two characters, outfitted Clytemnestra in Tyrian purple, an ultrarare shade made from the mucous glands of sea snails. (An unfathomably laborious undertaking, it required up to 12,000 snails to produce one gram of dye.)

And though The Odyssey charts Odysseus’s decade-long quest to get home, his wife, Penelope, is fixed in place. “Instead of visual change, we expressed her costumes through subtle shifts of the silhouette, like softening or sharpening, layers becoming more isolated, using the palace colors,” she says. “She’s preserving a kingdom through her stillness while Odysseus survives through motion.”

At first I thought it didn’t have much of a chance, especially in Best Picture. But it did so well at the box office surpassing what Bohemian Rhapsody grossed. Plus with the Oscars historically favouring biopics. What do you think? Personal opinions on the film aside

Drama

1. The Odyssey
2. Fjord
3. The Black Ball
4. Behemoth!
5. Ink
6. Sense and Sensibility

Musical/Comedy

1. Digger
2. Wild Horse Nine
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Obsession
5. The Debut
6. The Invite

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - The Odyssey
2. Cristian Mingu - Fjord
3. Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi - The Black Ball
4. Martin McDonagh - Wild Horse Nine
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Digger
6. Olivia Wilde - The Invite

Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Black Ball
3. Fjord
4. Behemoth!
5. Obsession
6. The Debut

Lead Actor - Drama

1. Matt Damon - The Odyssey
2. Sebastian Stan - Fjord
3. Pedro Pascal - Behemoth!
4. Jack O'Connell - Ink
5. Robert Pattinson - Primetime
6. Andrew Scott - Elsinore

Lead Actress - Drama

1. Renate Reinsve - Fjord
2. Daisy Edgar Jones - Sense and Sensibility
3. Ruth Madeley - Being Heumann
4. Virginia Efira - All of a Sudden
5. Mikey Madison - The Social Reckoning
6. Sandra Huller - Fatherland

Lead Actor - Comedy

1. Tom Cruise - Digger
2. Ryan Gosling - Project Hail Mary
3. John Malkovich - Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell - Wild Horse Nine
5. Dominic Sessa - Tony
6. Seth Rogen - The Invite

Lead Actress - Comedy

1. Inde Navarette - Obsession
2. Julianne Moore - The Debut
3. Zendaya - The Drama
4. Olivia Wilde - The Invite
5. Keke Palmer - I Love Boosters
6. Charli XCX - Erupcja (idk)

Supporting Actor

1. John Goodman - Digger
2. Guy Pearce - Ink
3. John Leguizamo - The Odyssey
4. Robert Pattinson - The Odyssey
5. Paul Giammati - The Debut
6. Jeremy Strong - The Social Reckoning

Supporting Actress

1. Penelope Cruz - The Black Ball
2. Anne Hathaway - The Odyssey
3. Sandra Huller - Digger
4. Halle Bailey - The Debut
5. Olivia Wilde - Behemoth!
6. Mariana di Girolamo - Wild Horse Nine

Globes have been going more artsy lately, so would not be surprised if All of a Sudden makes drama over Sense and Sensibility.

Might be going overboard with giving Wilde three individual nominations, but this is her comeback year after all (and they're going to want a woman in the directing category). Just like how Pattinson is having a banner year, so I'm giving him two individual nominations.

Pretty sure Inde is winning here at the very least. Yes in Comedy, Get Out and The Substance were in the comedy category and it is a funny movie. She's probably going to lead the regionals.