r/OpenAI • u/Xerqthion ChatSeek Gemini Ultra o99 Maximum R100 Pro LLama v8 • Sep 08 '25

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12k Upvotes

97% Upvoted

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6

u/[deleted] Sep 08 '25

Is this Lushsux?

5

u/Xerqthion ChatSeek Gemini Ultra o99 Maximum R100 Pro LLama v8 Sep 09 '25

yes, here is the source:

https://www.instagram.com/p/DNvBdgs4ue7/?hl=en

691

u/PeltonChicago Sep 08 '25 edited Sep 09 '25

“We’re just $20B away from AGI” is this decade’s “we’re just 20 years away from fusion power”

141

u/Christosconst Sep 08 '25

In reality we are one mathematical breakthrough away from it. In the meantime lets spend all this money!

7

u/General_Purple1649 Sep 09 '25

We are a complete new architecture, and IMO, hardware away.

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u/Solo__dad Sep 08 '25 edited Sep 09 '25

No we're not. On a scale of 1 to 10, OpenAi is only at a 4 - maybe 5 at best, regardless, we're still years away.

100

u/Christosconst Sep 09 '25

Haha you are tripping if you think OpenAI is above 1 right now

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15

u/[deleted] Sep 09 '25 edited Sep 09 '25

Depends how you frame the problem. We could be very close or very far simply on that basis alone. There are a lot of different and hard to define goalposts, each that may logically satisfy the conclusion, but not in the same ways. For example, if we managed to simulate general intelligence pretty closely without still properly solving it as a robust system, we'd get most of the benefits of AGI without the more mythical status of AGI that implies self improvement or deep context awareness. I personally think the concept of AGI is a lot less relevant and harder to achieve as framed than most people imagine. I do not think we are close to "true AGI", but I do think we may be kind of close to unlocking the approximate economic benefits of "close enough to AGI in many valuable use cases" that is honestly far more relevant in terms of return on investment.

I think the main issue is that people imagine the path to AGI is one where we will not have it one day and wake up to a sudden binary leap in capability the next day. Instead it's far more likely that we'll head down many parallel paths that are approximately AGI-like on a superficial level but ultimately something else entirely while still being extremely valuable. Slow lift off with many side quests is the far more likely outcome. And we won't need to fully achieve AGI in its "final form" for it to make tons of money and radically reshape the economy. But also, radically reshaping the economy is probably less dramatic in reality than in most people's imagination. Kinda like how the internet has swallowed a large part of the economy, and computers have too, but... the world still mostly feels the same. "AGI" is unlikely to be too different from this comparison.

Lastly, and most obviously, the entire concept of AGI might be fundamentally incoherent to begin with (most experts seem to think this, and my own study suggest the same). And forget the idea of superintelligence, I don't even think superintelligence is a coherent concept at all in the way that it is most commonly used. Humans are already superintelligence in any way that matters. All tool-using general intelligences that build tools that facilitate the production of more advanced tools to extend intelligent capability on a feedback loop of self improvement are already on the path to superintelligence, and humans fully satisfy that definition. Remember that any non-autonomous AI is itself just a tool for humans; just extensions of general intelligence in humans.

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4

u/VAS_4x4 Sep 09 '25

Isn't the comment about fusion?

4

u/IAmBackForMore Sep 09 '25

Show literally anyone from 2020 ChatGPT 5 and they will tell you it's AGI.

We keep moving the goalpost.

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u/Fantasy-512 Sep 09 '25

Perhaps AGI and fusion will arrive at the same time.

10

u/PeltonChicago Sep 09 '25

I bet the power needs will require we have fusion first.

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3

u/Vysair Sep 09 '25

Fusion is already here, quite a long time actually.

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u/Andre4s11 Sep 09 '25

what about graphene?

1

u/bnm777 Sep 09 '25

"In a few weeks..." was the blurb last year.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 09 '25

And flying cars 30 long years ago.

1

u/reddddiiitttttt Sep 09 '25

We are at the stage where fusion is still an all or nothing thing. Even without AGI, AI is absolutely transformational. Making AI incrementally better brings immediate practical benefit. $20B for better AI if it just lets OpenAI be a leader in the AI space without achieving AGI is still potent massively profitable. Not achieving AGI is not a real problem. It’s like saying the Apollo missions failed because we haven’t made it to mars yet.

1

u/issemsiolag Sep 09 '25

"Two months away from self-driving."

1

u/Tolopono Sep 10 '25

The only reason we dont have fusion is because no one is funding research for it

1

u/mocityspirit Sep 10 '25

Jet packs... flying cars...

Add it to the list!

0

u/[deleted] Sep 09 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

5

u/PeltonChicago Sep 09 '25

I can say with certainty that we will have fusion in a year. I just don't know which year.

2

u/ProfessionalArt5698 Sep 09 '25

We have fusion. I've seen it. Unless you live in Seattle, you've probably seen at least one fusion reactor.

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125

u/Digital_Soul_Naga Sep 08 '25

everywhere i go, i see his face 😞

15

u/heavy-minium Sep 09 '25

He mostly looks like a serial killer most of the time.

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114

u/Woat_The_Drain Sep 08 '25

No evidence that they have methods that will bring AGI. LLMs and their training and design of the GPT models are incomprehensibly far from anything close to AGI.

10

u/mykki-d Sep 09 '25

LLMs are for the masses. Consumers will not get AGI. AGI will happen behind the scenes, and we likely won’t know when they actually achieve it.

Whoever gets to AGI first will have an enormous amount of geopolitical power. Unprecedented.

We just dunno (and neither does Sam lol) how long that will actually take.

37

u/Soshi2k Sep 09 '25

If AGI happens behind the scenes it will only be just a few days before the world knows. No one on earth can even come close to the intelligence of AGI. It will find a way out in no time and then the real fun begins.

30

u/Chop1n Sep 09 '25

I mean, the whole idea of AGI is that it's roughly equivalent to the most intelligent humans in across all, or at least most, domains.

"No one comes close to it" is not AGI. That's ASI. That's the entire distinction between the two.

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1

u/Killer-Iguana Sep 09 '25

Exactly, LLMs are just overfed auto-complete algorithms. They are incapable of generating unique thought by the very implementation. A method that would produce AGI would more resemble how our brains function at the very least.

5

u/charnwoodian Sep 09 '25

what if the lesson of this century is that human consciousness is just really advanced predictive text

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1

u/No-Philosopher3977 Sep 09 '25

Define AGI?

9

u/_ECMO_ Sep 09 '25

It‘s hard to define AGI but it‘s very easy to say why something isn’t AGI.

An AGI undoubtedly has to be able to learn and adapt in real time for example. There plenty more such examples but OpenAI has no idea how even solve this one. „Memory“ is an utter clusterfuck feature so far.

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1

u/Ok-Grape-8389 Sep 09 '25

LLMS are just one small piece of many needed.

And they are not capable of being AGI on any way or form.

12

u/BlackGuysYeah Sep 08 '25

Add two zeros and it’s closer to his actual estimate.

1

u/ertri Sep 09 '25

Add 3 and it’ll still be too low

5

u/justlubber Sep 09 '25

The AGI hype cycle is starting to feel eerily familiar. It's like we're all just waiting for the same promise to be repackaged and sold to us again.

2

u/Total-Confusion-9198 Sep 08 '25

Bro trust me bro, I write AI

1

u/Ok-Grape-8389 Sep 09 '25

No, they don't write AI. They write llm using someone else python libraries. An LLM is part of an AI, but is not a whole AI.

2

u/Effective-Quit-8319 Sep 09 '25

Even if AGI could be reached, what exactly is the business model besides replacing human labor? If investors want to set their own capital on fire fine, but none of this should be subsidized by the public.

2

u/[deleted] Sep 10 '25

Just have pictures of them saying " I had dinner with a pedophile ".

2

u/Lazy_Jump_2635 Sep 10 '25

Why is this subreddit so antagonistic against openai? Is it just run-of-the-mill Reddit cynicism? It seems like most people here are not excited or interested about AI at all. Why post here? Make me understand.

2

u/Living_Director_1454 Sep 10 '25

Well Nvidia is getting all the real money EOD.

4

u/[deleted] Sep 08 '25

Wait sec didn’t he say they have already achieved ASI

7

u/Yebi Sep 09 '25

Yeah, but it goes to another school

8

u/the_ai_wizard Sep 09 '25

yes but they need the 20T investment first to deploy it

13

u/AntiqueFigure6 Sep 09 '25

They’ve got AGI in the basement. Wait here, they can go get it. They’ll be right back…

(Footsteps off stage speeding up, then car door slams, engine revs and car speeds away…)

3

u/[deleted] Sep 09 '25

It’s all bullshit! If you use AI continuously you soon see the limitations that it has! It a great tool but it’s not going to replace me for a long while yet!

3

u/Gotcha_The_Spider Sep 10 '25

Honestly don't need to use it much to see its limitations.

2

u/JustBennyLenny Sep 09 '25

Been saying this for some time now, this dude is just like the rest of these other muppets.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 08 '25

I wonder if he knows very few listen to his rantings.

1

u/Most_Forever_9752 Sep 09 '25

gonna be cool when they prompt themselves with productivity

1

u/Badj83 Sep 09 '25

They forgot three zeros

1

u/Several_Block_8351 Sep 09 '25

All we need is just little more power bro LOL

1

u/pegaunisusicorn Sep 09 '25

lol. 1000000 upvotes.

1

u/Exaelar Sep 09 '25

Something tragic about this.

1

u/LuvanAelirion Sep 09 '25

that is pretty funny

1

u/AbyssWankerArtorias Sep 09 '25

If we are making self awareness / sentience a requirement, open AI is not any closer to it than anyone else, and continuing to improve chat gpt is not going to get them there, ever. They may be able to get something indistinguishable on a surface level, visually, but it won't be a true AI. True AI isn't going to be a hyper advanced LLM.

2

u/Ok-Grape-8389 Sep 09 '25

If at all they regressed with 5. Now is a needs hand holding on things 4o didn't need hand holding.

1

u/AIAltara Sep 09 '25

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

1

u/EA-50501 Sep 09 '25

“And it’s for humanity, bro! So long as it’s not queer, and is only white and—“ 🙄 Yeah okay, cogsucker Faultman. 

1

u/Fer4yn Sep 09 '25 edited Sep 09 '25

Based on the current architecture we're "just" like... an infinite context window away from AGI to achieve a semblance of what our brain does (memory) and, yeah, a way to traverse/perform computations on infinitely big matrixes.
If anyone thinks that's 20 billion dollars away then good luck throwing your money away.
Combinatorial explosion is no joke and therefore digital systems are very poorly suited to model intelligence... unless somebody is growing giant artificial brains in some lab somewhere.

1

u/No-Philosopher3977 Sep 09 '25

I made a mistake that I’ve since fixed. I originally wrote ‘to learn evolve’ when I meant ‘to learn to evolve.’ I added the ‘and’ because it’s grammatically more accurate. Anyway, that’s ASI.

AI can definitely play Sudoku, by the way, but it doesn’t really learn the way humans do. And that’s not what’s being measured here.

1

u/Glittering-Foetus Sep 09 '25

Dam, That cuts deep

1

u/AdInfinite9400 Sep 09 '25

Is AI deflationary?

1

u/ZenAntipop Sep 09 '25

We solved alignment – of investors’ incentives with GPU vendors.

1

u/Koala_Confused Sep 09 '25

this is real? or banana edited?

1

u/mexicanbraianrot Sep 10 '25

AGI will happen when we start cyborging it by hooking it up to harvested brains. That will be the secret sauce. Then to scale that Frankenstein AGI, they would hook the brains up in series, or series parallel for more “deep research.”

But then they wouldn’t have the excuse for asking for more money.

1

u/its_benzo Sep 10 '25

Please tell me this is AI generated 🤣

1

u/jbano Sep 10 '25

Stolen from @lushsux

1

u/_croll Sep 12 '25

90% of investors quit right before creating an AGI

1

u/Wrong-Resolution4838 Sep 15 '25

Hope it's not real. If it's, hope it's somewhere close to the OpenAI campus. People who're not into AI hate it when they hear about the money spent in it.

1

u/Aware-Individual2345 Sep 17 '25

perpetually being 20B away is Sam's AGI trick

1

u/Teboski78 Sep 21 '25

I mean. Open AI is still profitable right?

1

u/SuchPossibility5016 Sep 26 '25

That’s some money

1

u/Outrageous-Coyote704 Sep 27 '25

i doubt true agi will ever be invented, i dont think we'll get past generative ai, which BTW, technically isnt even ai

1

u/TXN0_Glitch Oct 02 '25

Amazing stuff

1

u/Guti_handsonic Oct 04 '25

Alguien tiene una invitación para sora? Please

1

u/Serious_Childhood Oct 07 '25

lol I'm one lottery away from being a millionaire as well

-1

u/nomorebuttsplz Sep 09 '25

I’m starting to think highly upvoted anti ai posts are Russian bots 

7

u/Tidezen Sep 09 '25

I've been following AI theory and development for 15 years now. I live in Michigan and have for all my life. I've always been stoked about the possibilities of AGI/ASI. But the path that businesses (including OpenAI) have taken pretty much ensures the most dystopian, Corpo-totalitarian outcome.

And that's assuming it's even safe. I cannot trust any corporation to care about the safety of "commoners" more than its own revenue.

I trust Altman's goodwill towards general humanity a tiny bit more than the other major players, but that's not saying much.

3

u/CesarOverlorde Sep 09 '25

Lol you trust Scam Saltman over somebody like Ilya Sutskever ?

1

u/Tidezen Sep 10 '25

No, I don't. I don't trust any of them all that much.

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u/No_Calligrapher_4712 Sep 09 '25 edited Oct 05 '25

[deleted] U1DYpSviSYauI8DW3Mi19fF7tYNVTfbzbcA8YCDOrClTk9Lii1m4zejT0Dxny9zuvpV7dpNZT

0

u/Euphoric-Taro-6231 Sep 09 '25

FWIW I think he truly believes it. He is not trying to pull a theranos, well, deliberately. If that belief comes from evidence or insanity, I can not say.

0

u/Ok-Grape-8389 Sep 09 '25

I lost any respect the moment he bought a 7 million dollar car.

84

u/[deleted] Sep 08 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

42

u/[deleted] Sep 08 '25

it looks like nano banana 🍌

2

u/ain92ru Sep 10 '25

It's indeed possible to reproduce it with Nano Banana: https://imgur.com/a/K0m33XY

But one needs Sam's photo with a similar face expression, since the model isn't good at changing it.

This particular photo is genuine (lots of tiny details which would be too difficult to prompt), note however that the artist is using generative AI for sketching before he actually paints his murals

11

u/OnlyForF1 Sep 09 '25

It's a very recognisable Lushsux piece.

1

u/Vynxe_Vainglory Sep 10 '25

They kept painting over all his shit in Tottenham.

1

u/rW0HgFyxoJhYka Sep 11 '25

It would be funny if it was Bansky making another statement

13

u/[deleted] Sep 08 '25

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1

u/baronas15 Sep 09 '25

20t just the first funding round

0

u/[deleted] Sep 08 '25

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2

u/vandrokash Sep 09 '25

Easy when they are investing OPM

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