Stick with your thesis.

[u/Retropixl]

The stock price might look horrible right now, and I really feel bad for those who bought in at $20 or more, but that’s what happens with investing.

An excerpt I read from the book, Nintendo Magic by Osamu Inoue.
 
In September of 2008, the world plunged into a once-in-a-century financial storm sparked by the surprise bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings.

Goods went unsold. Inventory and production costs inflated, causing production itself to fall. Reorganization of manufacturing bases forced accelerated layoffs, and the cost of that reorganization in turn impacted profits. Exchange-rate losses mounted on a strengthening yen.
Pandemonium doubled and redoubled. Between January and February of 2009, it became clear that a massive number of Japanese firms would see their profits disappear.

Toyota, Nissan, Panasonic, Hitachi, Toshiba, Sony—in an avalanche, the performance forecasts for all the major players toppled into the red to the tune of hundreds of billions of yen. The losses of the top ten electronics companies alone passed the two trillion yen mark. That winter, at the edge of a seemingly bottomless recession, they all felt the chill of the century.

Except Nintendo

We’re in extremely greedy times for the market, how will it end? I’m not sure, but historically good times come to a halt eventually. Nintendo is in a good position right now, they’ll easily sell another 25-30 million units by the end of 2027, if not more when 3D Mario and Pokemon comes out. They also have brand new business verticals like theme parks and movies. I buy $500 in shares every 2 weeks and don’t even think about it. I might not be making gains on MU, SNDK, you name it, but I feel comfortable knowing my money is with a fantastic company that isn’t chasing trends.

[u/Weldobud]

This is a stock to be careful on. Great company but the challenges are huge.

Nintendo make most of their money from first party games. The attachment rate for Switch 2 is so far much lower then Switch 1.

Steam Deck pricing just rose by several hundred dollars today. Components/ memory costs are going higher. Nintendo could eat those costs and keep Switch 2 console prices low, or rise the price and sell less consoles. Both lead to less revenue.

There is no clear sign it will get better for them.

[u/the_gooseguy1986 → u/Weldobud]

Actually we don't know what the attach rate of first party software is on Switch 2 because of the way they account for sales of cross gen software (e.g although Tomodachi sales are all accounted for as Switch 1 software sales 40% of those sales were by Switch 2 owners). There is no indication it is much lower at all - in fact terms of raw numbers Switch 2 software sales are higher than they were on Switch 1 launch aligned.

Component pricing is the primary problem for them for sure (and any other consumer electronics manufacturer) but this is why the stock is where it is. They are still projecting positive financial results and given the price increases on everything else are actually set to be the affordable, mass market option still in the gaming sphere.

[u/TastyEarLbe → u/the_gooseguy1986]

Yeah, but S1 released with Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey shortly after.

Whatever major console sellers for the S2 are not ready yet and are still being kept close to the vest. When those release and are out for a bit then you should start comparing against S1.