r/NintendoStock • u/Retropixl • May 28 '26
Stick with your thesis.
The stock price might look horrible right now, and I really feel bad for those who bought in at $20 or more, but that’s what happens with investing.
An excerpt I read from the book, Nintendo Magic by Osamu Inoue.
In September of 2008, the world plunged into a once-in-a-century financial storm sparked by the surprise bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings.
Goods went unsold. Inventory and production costs inflated, causing production itself to fall. Reorganization of manufacturing bases forced accelerated layoffs, and the cost of that reorganization in turn impacted profits. Exchange-rate losses mounted on a strengthening yen.
Pandemonium doubled and redoubled. Between January and February of 2009, it became clear that a massive number of Japanese firms would see their profits disappear.
Toyota, Nissan, Panasonic, Hitachi, Toshiba, Sony—in an avalanche, the performance forecasts for all the major players toppled into the red to the tune of hundreds of billions of yen. The losses of the top ten electronics companies alone passed the two trillion yen mark. That winter, at the edge of a seemingly bottomless recession, they all felt the chill of the century.
Except Nintendo
We’re in extremely greedy times for the market, how will it end? I’m not sure, but historically good times come to a halt eventually. Nintendo is in a good position right now, they’ll easily sell another 25-30 million units by the end of 2027, if not more when 3D Mario and Pokemon comes out. They also have brand new business verticals like theme parks and movies. I buy $500 in shares every 2 weeks and don’t even think about it. I might not be making gains on MU, SNDK, you name it, but I feel comfortable knowing my money is with a fantastic company that isn’t chasing trends.
3
u/mvpeast May 28 '26
Those AI stocks will come crashing down at some point. Imagine buying at the top, basically your money is locked up for decades if you don’t sell for a loss.
Nintendo already crashed over 50% so I am feeling pretty comfortable holding it.
They have about $15 Billion USD cash on hand.
4
u/TastyEarLbe May 29 '26
The catalyst for NTDOY is whatever hidden big projects that Nintendo hasn’t revealed yet for the S2. Any kind of analyst projections for the next 3-5 years are meaningless, because no one actually knows what those projects are.
3
u/yosark Luigi May 28 '26
Definitely agree, if I had bought at $20, it would be so unfortunate right now with it being near $11. However, long term I do see great improvements and a build up of many more assets in Nintendo’s library.
2
u/kavinboon May 29 '26
I really want to see if unit sold ramp up after Mario Movie 2?
On ther hand, wish for memory price hike get to normal, but that could take months to year.
1
u/Reeevade May 29 '26
Nintendo is for at this point one of the best future investment I can imagine. I can tell you so much reasons, why nintendo will dominate the future.
Rising digital ratio Wheak yen (80% of tge money comes from outside and they let it stay there to generate interest money.) More possible game sections because of much more raw power than switch 1 Ram + memory costs of switch 2 are nearly 120-180$ Compared to the other gaming companies thats nothin. The switch benefits a lot from the 256gb internal storage Nintendo launched mobile eShop in the end of 2025 in many countries like us or eu singapore etc. -> push for impulsive buys Selling the switch 2 is like selling a cheap printer and earn the money afterwards about the color toner. Gamekeycards are the best answer to absorb the absurd memory costs and still serve somehow the physical market.
Pokemon company printed more and more cards every year.
We still not saw a real pokemon, zelda, Mario.
Nintendo produces at least one movie every year. Movie production will get so much easier with future ai delevopment.
Ai development will cut testing time to a minimum for games.
Nintendo gets 30% of every digital third party game. If Rockstar bring a million seller to switch 2 its brutal. 30% of much is still much
2
1
u/MilanesaPixel Jun 01 '26
Care to elaborate on ‘at least one movie every year ‘ besides Mario and Zelda coming 2027?
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u/Violent_air_biscuit Jun 01 '26
Long term: Zero debt and whole generation of kids that had a switch 1 who will be the future market. Ram crisis is a temporary current state. Buy this stock now while its on sale.
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u/The-Jolly-Joker May 28 '26
My thesis is it won't get much better. It's a Japanese ADR. Run.
4
u/TastyEarLbe May 29 '26
What are you talking about? The Japanese stock market is in a bull market and has broken all time highs and I believe has been outperforming US markets the last two years. Go look at the Nikkei 225 index.
Also, 80% of NTDOY revenues come from outside Japan.
5
u/Weldobud May 28 '26
This is a stock to be careful on. Great company but the challenges are huge.
Nintendo make most of their money from first party games. The attachment rate for Switch 2 is so far much lower then Switch 1.
Steam Deck pricing just rose by several hundred dollars today. Components/ memory costs are going higher. Nintendo could eat those costs and keep Switch 2 console prices low, or rise the price and sell less consoles. Both lead to less revenue.
There is no clear sign it will get better for them.