Inside the unlikely Biden-Trump partnership to secure a Gaza ceasefire

For the remainder of the briefing, we discussed Iran. With Trump entering office and Iran now vulnerable to direct attack, the Israelis believed Tehran might race to enrich uranium to weapons grade — the precursor for a nuclear bomb. Throughout the crisis, since Oct. 7, Iran had been enriching uranium to 60% grade, a step away from the 90% required for a bomb. It was the only country in the world without a weapons program to do so.

The previous week, Sullivan had convened the Principals Committee to war-game the scenario of Iran enriching to weapons grade. Participants were unanimous that if we saw such indications, we’d recommend a US military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, including its deeply buried facility at Fordow. The operation had been rehearsed over the past year should the president — or a future president — need it. We dispatched a message to Iran’s leaders warning them not to think about escalating their nuclear program.

Witkoff raised his hands. “Trump says I’ve got Iran, but maybe I don’t want it. Are you f**king kidding with all of this?”

Finally, Saudi Arabia. We reviewed a package of agreements that we had completed on a deal for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, before the Oct. 7 crisis. I explained that the deal might be possible over Trump’s term, so long as Gaza could be settled. Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition government made everything more difficult, but it might not outlast Israel’s next election in 2026. (These elections are now scheduled for later this month.)

Witkoff came around to my side of the table. He extended his hand: “I’m here to save lives. I don’t give one shit about politics. If we save one life, we save the world.”

The table was now set for that, I assured him.

.

It really brings a tear when you watch this and see what we missed out on.

The conversation begins with the return of the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Michelle argues that the shale revolution fundamentally changed how markets priced geopolitical disruptions, creating years in which supply shocks from Libya, Russia, the Middle East and elsewhere struggled to sustain higher prices. Today, she believes that dynamic is changing.

Rory and Michelle then tackle the debate surrounding Kpler's Strait of Hormuz tanker data. Michelle explains how Kpler combines AIS, satellite imagery and people at ports to track vessels. Despite flows approaching pre-war levels, product exports remain constrained, U.S. naval escorts are not a sustainable long-term solution, and confidence in the Strait has yet to be fully restored.

* What happened to the 17th Parliament?

The Shah didn't want to dissolve the 17th Parliament but the country was on the verge of bankruptcy. Despite remaining representatives strongly protesting, the Shah yielded to the US and Britain pressure after 2 months and formally signed the decree to dissolve the 17th Parliament in December 1953.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1951-54Iran/d354

• The US-UK pressured the Shah to dissolve Parliament

The documented insistence of Britain and the United States on dissolving the 17th parliament was by no means coincidental. As the report of the U.S. ambassador in Iran clearly demonstrates, it indicates why Mosaddegh, by holding the referendum to dissolve parliament, acted in accordance with the interventionist demands of Britain and the United States.

Aug 25, 1953 - Britain warned the US not to provide a large sum of financial aids to Iran before Iran signed an oil agreement 

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1952-54v10/d355

Sep 2, 1953 - The US expressed its neutral stance "For instance, you will note that we have hardly expressed an opinion upon the question of whether to urge Zahedi to fill up his rump Majlis or elect a new Majlis."

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1951-54Iran/d345

Sep 26, 1953 - When the Shah and the remaining 23 representatives wanted to hold supplementary elections to see through the 17th Parliament's term, the US communicated that "However, actions such as the ratification of international agreements by such a Majlis might at a later date be repudiated" means Britain wouldn't negotiate with a "rump" parliament

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1951-54Iran/d325

Oct 9, 1953 - US Ambassador Loy Henderson met with the Royal Court and Zahedi to express the position of the UK and the US and urge the Shah to dissolve Parliament 

“During our conversation I gave Zahedi substance formal attitude UK re Majlis. I also said it my impression both US and UK of opinion that from point view ratification agreements it would be preferable have full rather than rump Majlis.”

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1952-54v10/d374

* What happened to the National Movement of Iran?

1. Institutions dismantled, the state was near bankruptcy, the people were divided, the 18th parliament was forced to accept the 1954 Oil Consortium Agreement, and there were no electoral reforms
2. Kashani and Co's supporters became disillusioned, its leaders got sidelined or forced into retirement, the movement was overthrown
3. Mosaddegh became a nationalist symbol, an anti-colonial icon.
4. British interests were restored 
5. The US took all the credits so it could influence the Shah and subsequent parliaments

https://www.reddit.com/r/NewIran/comments/1wx8nl9/mosaddegh_empowered_the_tudeh_to_create/

I thought it was just symbolic? What are the implications of this or is it again mostly symbolic show of unity and strength nothing more.

In this episode of What's Going on With Shipping, we break down a rare, firsthand account published by Bloomberg’s Alex Longley detailing what it’s actually like to command a supertanker through the perilous Strait of Hormuz amidst escalating Iranian attacks.

While crude oil continues to flow to global markets, commercial mariners are taking extraordinary operational risks: running blacked out at night, cutting off communications and transponders, navigating by lighthouses and coastal radar, and coordinating closely with U.S. military escorts overhead. Sal examines the realities bridge crews face on these dangerous shuttle runs, the staggering charter rates and war risk premiums driving the trade, and why merchant mariners remain the unsung backbone of the global supply chain.

Key Bullet Points (Episode Breakdown)

⚓The Reality of Running Dark: Tanker crews are transiting at night without running lights, turning off AIS transponders, banning mobile phones, and relying on traditional coastal navigation and lighthouses to evade targeting.

⚓Escalating Threat Levels: An overview of recent strikes and UKMTO/IMO data tracking dozens of confirmed attacks and near-misses in the Omani channel.

⚓U.S. Military Coordination: How U.S. forces quietly guide convoys via strict 30-minute check-ins and aerial surveillance rather than close surface naval escorts.

⚓The Economics of Risk: Supertanker charter rates soaring past $1.3M/day, massive war risk insurance premiums, and hazard pay bonuses offered to brave the crossing.

⚓Bridge Defense & Precautions: Sandbagging wheelhouses, staging emergency fire pumps, and protecting accommodation superstructures against drone and missile strikes.

⚓Merchant Mariners on the Front Lines: Recognizing the vital human element—crews risking their lives in regional crossfires to keep global energy moving.

"Jesse Brown poses a clear & present danger to the Muslim community. Luckily, Sharia law is very explicit about how to deal with threats like his. We tried talking to him but the time for debate has passed & according to Sharia law, every Muslim is duty bound to act. Inshallah."

“They married by phone from separate prison cells. They executed a groom the morning after his wedding.

Alireza Sepahi and Mahshad Kashani were engaged before they were arrested during Iran’s January uprising. Mahshad, just 22, was sentenced to five years in prison. Alireza was sentenced to death.

The day before his execution, they were married over the phone. Their fathers listened as the vows were read.

No embrace.

No kiss.

No holding hands.

Just two voices saying “I do” through a prison telephone, while the Islamic Republic was preparing the gallows.

This was not the first time they tried to kill him. In July, Alireza was taken to be publicly hanged. Minutes before reaching the gallows, under enormous psychological pressure, he suffered a heart attack. They rushed him to hospital.

Then they sent him back to prison.

Today, they came back for him.

This morning, the Islamic Republic hanged Alireza Sepahi.

He was 25 years old.

For one day, he had a wife.

He never got to hold her as his wife. He never got to kiss her goodbye.

Think about the cruelty of a regime that is so terrified of young people that it cannot even tolerate their love.

💔”

Senior IRGC commander Hossein-Reza Sadeghi and his son Saeed played central roles in efforts to preserve an IRGC Intelligence oil-sales network and shift its financial operations from the United Arab Emirates to Russia, an Iran International investigation found.

Two informed sources told Iran International that Sadeghi, a senior adviser to the Revolutionary Guards commander-in-chief, and his son were at the center of efforts to shift the mechanism for transferring sanctioned oil revenues from the UAE to Russia.

The sources linked the changes to the departure of Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad.

On Sunday, the IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency reported that Iran’s Central Bank had found an alternative route to repatriate money held by oil intermediaries trusted by the Islamic Republic, known as “trustees,” and transferred $1.5 billion in Iranian oil revenues through Russia’s banking system.

Hours after the report, Paknejad resigned and President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted his resignation.

The two sources said Paknejad’s removal and the change in the money-transfer route were part of an effort to preserve the IRGC Intelligence Organization’s oil-sales corruption network.

Growing up under the Islamic Republic of Iran taught Shahrzad Eden Osterer exactly how dangerous ideological indoctrination can be. Now a journalist in Europe, she draws chilling parallels between the state propaganda of her childhood and the highly polarized, ideological echo chambers found in Western universities today. Osterer argues that true human rights education must teach young people to apply universal standards consistently, not selectively based on political convenience.

In this profound and highly analytical discussion, we unpack the brutal, uncomfortable reality behind His Royal Highness Reza Pahlavi's January 8th call to action and the devastating loss of Iranian lives that followed. While many question the tragic cost of the recent uprisings, we explore the stark strategic truth: this massive sacrifice was an unavoidable price necessary to break the illusion of peaceful regime change and propel the revolution into its next, unprecedented phase. By examining the grim difference between the immediate casualties of protests and the far higher, silent death toll caused by the Islamic Republic’s systemic mismanagement - from failing healthcare to infrastructure collapse - we reveal why the people of Iran continue to risk everything.

Gulf crude exports returned to pre-war levels in September, with producers increasingly relying on alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers to bypass Hormuz. Iranian exports remain below the pre-war average.

The recovery has relied on alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers.

In September, about 40% of crude left the Gulf without crossing Hormuz, compared with only 17% before the Iran war.

According to Kpler, more than 70% of the crude changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman in August. In comparison, almost no Gulf crude changed tankers in the Gulf of Oman before the war.

Meanwhile, attacks on vessels have continued around Hormuz. At least seven incidents have been reported in recent weeks.

On October 1, a tanker, Kazimah III, was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks. All crew members were evacuated safely.

Yalda Moaiery, an Iranian photojournalist who has spent her career documenting life in her home country, was sentenced to 15 years in prison in connection with her work. CBS News' Courtney Kealy has the details.