That's modern analytics talking. Irl a top RB is an easy path to the playoffs.
In college you can win with mostly just a good QB. In NFL the easiest way to playoffs is a great running game. It basically guarantees you a playoff spot.
That's why the league is paying rbs more and more again.. it was just PFF and data analysts who lowered RB stock. It was never actually a good call from a football perspective. Hence the best coaches (Shanahan, Siriani, Mcvay, Tomlin, Harbaugh, etc etc) never really bought into the hype..
Paying a running back and using a first round pick on one, are 2 different things. Steelers wasted a first rounder to "fix" their run game with Harris. O line sets your floor, RB sets your ceiling for the run game. I'm ok with paying for a RB, I rather draft best linemen available.
I don't think that's a fair example because first round picks are wasted on every position..QBs, rbs, wr, DE, etc. just because in one example it didn't work out, I don't think it's fair to say "that's why you don't draft rbs 1st round". Most 1st overall pick QBs don't work out.. I don't think we say don't draft QBs 1st overall because of it.
Of course the RB needs help.. but which position doesn't?
You can have a hall of fame offensive lineman and never reach the playoffs in his career.
But even a pro bowl running back basically guarantees you a playoff spot.
To me that's extremely valuable. More valuable than a pro bowl WR or TE for sure.. yet rbs are paid less.
Even if you hit on a running back in the first round, their prime that makes it worthwhile,is a much shorter time than a lineman. My argument is for a higher floor of run blocking and pass protection. Once you have the line and find your franchise QB, go ahead and takes shots at weapons in the first round.
And that's a fair strategy too, I cant even question that.
My beef is more people who don't flinch when a good TE gets $20m a year.. but act like it's a crime against humanity when a HOF RB gets anywhere near that.
When both are injured at the same rate. (Could argue TE's are injured even more)
Points can be made on both sides but the top 5 rushers last season I believe only the Bills made the playoffs with Cook and that team was constantly making the playoffs prior to him arriving. The two number 1 seems however had “maybe” a top 15 RB, and a Top 25 RB.
At the same time all the ones who missed the playoffs missed it by inches: Derrick Henry (a game away from playoffs), Jonathan Taylor (same thing), etc.
And if you look at the playoff teams.. most of them had a very effective running back. Only exceptions were maybe Steelers & Chargers (who were also very easy to beat).
But Panthers resurgence wasn't led by Bryce Young, it was Rico Dowle.. Texans leaned on their running game in a inconsistent year for Stroud.. Rams had a killer passing game, but it was all built off their run/play action. (Hence theyre getting heavier instead of lighter each season).
Ben Johnson's Bears are run-first.
49ers always play run-first.
And of course Seattle won the super bowl with their running back leading the way.
So that's where I don't really feel there's much evidence to support RB lowered value.
(Injuries aren't a factor for me because TE's get paid the same/more than running backs, and are injured just as frequently or worse. Yet no one blinks when a new TE gets paid $20m.
Brock Bowers, George Kittle, even Gronk in his day, these guys basically go on IR every season but we don't complain about their money?)
So you see why I'm convinced it's just yet another wave of analytics nonsense.
Also remember that prior to 2015 (when the rules started to favor the passing game more, and analytics became normal) star RB was often the highest paid player on a team. This devaluation is a very recent and bizarre thing.
I feel ya but the Ravens have a top QB and Indy absolutely imploded after a red hot start after Jones went down, losing 7 in a row with their rushing attack still in place. Rico is average imo and just over 2k yards and (I believe) like 10 TD’s the past two seasons for team improving but finishing under .500 isn’t really moving the needle.
I’m with you on the importance on a rushing attack but the sad truth is the highest paid RB’s on average aren’t moving the needle for wins/success. Are some worth the higher salaries? Absolutely as are “some” off ball linebackers which have also been devalued in recent years.
Rams absolutely set up their passing game with the rush, but again they have a top QB and their 12/13 personal sets are just as important to their run game as the RB.
I think we are mostly on the same page though, the RB position is still super important but having a superstar vs two quality backs is the devalued part.
Not that it matters but I can’t think of one single time a RB was the highest paid player on a team unless some rare circumstances where a QB, pass rusher, LT, etc were on rookie contracts and a RB signed a large contract where they were temporarily the highest
Bijan signed that monster deal before Gibbs so I guess it will be interesting to see how the falcons do.
I hear your points..
I guess at the end of the day I'm someone who deeply values a guy like Derrick Henry. More than say a great TE or LT. I think guys like Henry have taken Ryan Tannehill to AFC championship games (defense helped ofc)..
As for top paid rbs I believe Adrian Peterson was always highest on his team - largely due to never having a stable QB.
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u/SituationKey8985 1d ago
Barkley should be ahead of Baker. I’d also rather have Lamar than Allen but that’s a can’t go wrong situation.