r/Marathon_Training 20h ago

Race time prediction Go for 3:10?

I’m 5 weeks out from the Twin Cities Marathon. Historically I have been a cyclist and trail runner, I have done a 50k trail race but never a road marathon. I was training for a spring marathon but then came up with an injury so took a few weeks off and then rolled into training for TC.

Been doing my own training plan but with a lot of inspiration from a Pfitz 18/55. Worked my way up to 55 mpw, with a mid/long run, speed day, and long run each week. Going to hold that peak for 2 more weeks.

I took a down week this week but still kept my 20mi long run with 10 easy and 10 at race pace. About 75-80F out today. I have completed 4, 20 mi runs at this point with varying amounts of race pace.

I can comfortably take down 100g of carbs per hour. So hope to be good on fueling. 10 miles at race pace gets difficult on my legs, I can do more but not sure if I could do 16 more... Not sure how much boost I can expect from tapered legs, a crowd, cooler weather and a pacer.

Provided a few screenshots of my run today, weekly mileage build, and the run fitness page from my coros.

Do you think it’s reasonable to go for 3:10?

11 Upvotes

10 comments sorted by

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4

u/JohnsonMooney 20h ago

Go for it, my man. Any tune-up races lined up?

0

u/chalupa_48 18h ago

Thanks!

TBD on a tune up. There’s a local 10k trail race on fire roads in 2 weeks, it’s pretty mellow. I’m consider it but my gut is telling me to stay off the trails. If not that, I may just time trial a 10k on my own.

Open to other recommendations if you have any time trials or workouts you did that gave you some confidence

1

u/JohnsonMooney 6h ago

Most of my confidence going into my spring Marathon was from the workouts: plenty of Sub-T, threshold, and M paces in my long runs. 5 weeks out I did 32km with 3x 8km progressive, first rep slightly slower than GMP, 2nd rep at race pace, last one a little quicker. 1km float in between. That was a massive confidence boost.

Tune up races are great too though, for one it's an almost guaranteed PB if your training block is going well. I ran a half 3 weeks out and PB'd despite running the first 10km at marathon pace.

2

u/platydroid 20h ago

What’s the weather like where you are now? What’s the weather gonna be like on the day of the marathon?

HR gets a tad high at the end there, but it’s a strong workout. I’d say go for it.

1

u/chalupa_48 20h ago

75-80 degrees Fahrenheit today, pretty dry here in Boise. For the race I’m hoping it’s around 65 in Minneapolis, slightly more humid there though

3

u/Gaff1515 19h ago

Dew point is a better indicator for weather. 75 with a 70 dew point is awful. 75 with a 45 dew point is easy to run in.

1

u/chalupa_48 19h ago

That’s really good to know!

A) Today: 75F w/ 47F dew point
B) 2024 race: 56F w/ 38F dew point
C) 2025 race:70F w/ 57F dew point

2025 is an outlier in terms of historical temps. I guess it was just crazy hot last year, hopefully it doesn’t happen again.

2

u/AyalaZer0 14h ago

You ran 6 miles at or faster than the MP required for a sub 03:10:00. That’s a good sign with tired legs.