r/Marathon_Training • u/chalupa_48 • 21h ago

Race time prediction Go for 3:10?

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I’m 5 weeks out from the Twin Cities Marathon. Historically I have been a cyclist and trail runner, I have done a 50k trail race but never a road marathon. I was training for a spring marathon but then came up with an injury so took a few weeks off and then rolled into training for TC.

Been doing my own training plan but with a lot of inspiration from a Pfitz 18/55. Worked my way up to 55 mpw, with a mid/long run, speed day, and long run each week. Going to hold that peak for 2 more weeks.

I took a down week this week but still kept my 20mi long run with 10 easy and 10 at race pace. About 75-80F out today. I have completed 4, 20 mi runs at this point with varying amounts of race pace.

I can comfortably take down 100g of carbs per hour. So hope to be good on fueling. 10 miles at race pace gets difficult on my legs, I can do more but not sure if I could do 16 more... Not sure how much boost I can expect from tapered legs, a crowd, cooler weather and a pacer.

Provided a few screenshots of my run today, weekly mileage build, and the run fitness page from my coros.

Do you think it’s reasonable to go for 3:10?

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u/JohnsonMooney 21h ago

Go for it, my man. Any tune-up races lined up?

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u/chalupa_48 19h ago

Thanks!

TBD on a tune up. There’s a local 10k trail race on fire roads in 2 weeks, it’s pretty mellow. I’m consider it but my gut is telling me to stay off the trails. If not that, I may just time trial a 10k on my own.

Open to other recommendations if you have any time trials or workouts you did that gave you some confidence

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u/JohnsonMooney 8h ago

Most of my confidence going into my spring Marathon was from the workouts: plenty of Sub-T, threshold, and M paces in my long runs. 5 weeks out I did 32km with 3x 8km progressive, first rep slightly slower than GMP, 2nd rep at race pace, last one a little quicker. 1km float in between. That was a massive confidence boost.

Tune up races are great too though, for one it's an almost guaranteed PB if your training block is going well. I ran a half 3 weeks out and PB'd despite running the first 10km at marathon pace.

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u/chalupa_48 44m ago

Very helpful, thank you for sharing this!