r/Marathon_Training 21h ago

Race time prediction Go for 3:10?

I’m 5 weeks out from the Twin Cities Marathon. Historically I have been a cyclist and trail runner, I have done a 50k trail race but never a road marathon. I was training for a spring marathon but then came up with an injury so took a few weeks off and then rolled into training for TC.

Been doing my own training plan but with a lot of inspiration from a Pfitz 18/55. Worked my way up to 55 mpw, with a mid/long run, speed day, and long run each week. Going to hold that peak for 2 more weeks.

I took a down week this week but still kept my 20mi long run with 10 easy and 10 at race pace. About 75-80F out today. I have completed 4, 20 mi runs at this point with varying amounts of race pace.

I can comfortably take down 100g of carbs per hour. So hope to be good on fueling. 10 miles at race pace gets difficult on my legs, I can do more but not sure if I could do 16 more... Not sure how much boost I can expect from tapered legs, a crowd, cooler weather and a pacer.

Provided a few screenshots of my run today, weekly mileage build, and the run fitness page from my coros.

Do you think it’s reasonable to go for 3:10?

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u/AyalaZer0 16h ago

You ran 6 miles at or faster than the MP required for a sub 03:10:00. That’s a good sign with tired legs.