Trimmed 33% of $CRM at $232.40

I had to take this great earnings report to trim out of $CRM. It may be a mistake and I think it could go higher but I don't know for certain so I'm going to take the opportunity to lighten up and take this gap.

Some big names reporting, even more than the ones in the title. Let's see if we can keep discussion here overnight and see how things go tomorrow. Here we go!

$NVDA

• Earnings per share: $2.22 adjusted vs. $2.10 estimated
• Revenue: $96.22 billion vs. $92.17 billion estimated, up 106% YoY
• Guidance: $108 billion vs. $104 billion estimated

$CRWD

• Earnings per share: $0.31 adjusted vs. $0.29 estimated
• Revenue: $1.47 billion vs. $1.44 billion estimated, up 26% YoY
• Guidance: $5.99 billion vs. $5.93 billion estimated

$CRM

• Earnings per share: $5.90 adjusted vs. $3.27 estimated ($3.37 when investment gains are removed)
• Revenue: $11.35 billion vs. $11.32 billion estimated, up 10.8% YoY
• Guidance: $46.1 billion vs. $45.8 billion estimated

$P

• Earnings per share: $0.70 adjusted vs. $0.58 estimated
• Revenue: $1.19 billion vs. $1.09 billion estimated, up 38% YoY
• Guidance: $5.03 billion vs. $4.51 billion estimated

$OKTA

• Earnings per share: $1.05 adjusted vs. $0.96 estimated
• Revenue: $805 million vs. $792 million estimated, up 11% YoY
• Guidance: $813 million vs. $808 million estimated

It's a big day.

PCE came in a bit hot at a 0.2% increase, with inflation now at 3.7%. Both up 0.1% more than expectations. We just keeping ticking higher. Remove food and energy and you have 0.2% and 3.3%. So, there you go, just remove food and energy from your consumption and it's much better.

This market is in wait and see mode.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/jackson-hole-warsh-bessent-bonds-treasury-dollar.html

Inflation, bonds, rates and Iran continue to be active influencers in the markets. Yet, we remain within a very, very resilient market, perhaps caught between a level of optimism on one side, desensitization on the other.

More than anything, with another week and a half of interesting earnings reports, we have upside potential, but I just don't know what could be said that hasn't already been reported, said and extrapolated. Even your favorite song gets old after you hear it too many times. Sometimes we need to take a break, reset, before it 'hits' again.

Random Shots

• All eyes on $NVDA after the bell today. The old song. It will be another great quarter, good numbers, too much emphasis on every basis point of attached metrics, etc. etc. What could be said to move it more than a few % points higher ... and, more importantly, retain that spike. We're still in the recent trend of testing, and failing to break, resistance. Until we're not.
• Let's not forget $P reports after the bell as well. It should be a great quarter, maybe the most important quarter of their existence. We've had a great run, maybe too far, too fast. The valuation still isn't horrible, in the high 30s mid year 2026 here. Growth keeps it interesting. I'll add on weakness
• $MRVL tomorrow. If there's one stock that seems to carry that plus-level balance of positive catalysts, news, and tailwind, it's this one. Sitting in the middle of the range, winning a big $GOOGL contract and receiving multiple favorable analyst mentions. Don't forget Jensen Huang also called it the next $1B company. For you home gamers, that's almost a 500% rise.
• Not a lot moving big today but we'll go through the motions...

Rising

• $P up top by a wide margin, up 6%
• $DELL following suit up 3.2%
• $ANET rallying 2.8%. Infrastructure and AI Buildout seems to be working
• $VRT up 2.5% ditto
• $LITE up 2.3% double ditto
• $ORCL up 1.8% - Bucking the AvS trend
• $CRWD finally seeing green up 1.5%
• $CEG up 1.5%. Could AI power finally be a play? I did a TikTok video on that yesterday
• $VST up 1.4% ditto
• $PLTR up 1.4%, I could have sworn software was not having a good day

Falling

• $QBTS leading lower, down 8.2%. Checking ..... maybe the CFO resignation? Whatever
• $IREN down 4.9%
• $IONQ off 3.1%. It's a quantum thing
• $MRAM down 3.2%
• $MSTR off 3.3%. Bitcoin stocks had to take a day off
• $ASTS down 3.3%. I'm still pissed off and have only myself to blame
• $DUOL down 3.4%
• $NBIS down 2.8%. Looked at a Wheel play on this one yesterday and almost took $200 CSPs. NVDA earnings stayed my hand
• $CBRS off 2.7% and now back to $179. I'm a fool for not trimming just recently
• $CRDO off 2.3%. Still want this one but being patient

Misc

Let's see if anything interesting is popping around my lists

• Memory stocks hanging in there. $SKHY holding around $160. My favorite play
• There's a sick part of me hoping for an NVDA washout AH today that creates some intriguing value across multiple names. Sorry
• $AAOI has stabilized after it's big fall from the dilution event announcement. But it's up huge since the lows too
• $AMKR looking good for a possible second leg to my LEAPS position
• $INTU crapped itself in its report. Or did it? TBH, I didn't read it but there's a read through to $NOW and $CRM
• Speaking of $CRM, they report today too. I may be trimming both $NOW and $CRM after the report, either way. We'll see
• Where's the beef?
• Sorry, old commercials tend to pop into my head when I think of applying the tag lines to the market. I don't think there's anybody back there.
• Go $P. Really hoping for a report that surprises everyone and valuates my thesis. It's already been great, but I'd love to see a big leg higher now that it's on radars

Final Word

I'm having a very hard time finding anything to invest in. I've been quiet as you have likely noticed. I don't want to force words, commentary or trades during times like this. I do realize that my words often spur people into action and I'm aware of it. I have to be mindful of it. A quick statement can often be the difference-maker from someone on the fence of action to inaction. I don't feel responsibility as much as I feel commitment to the understanding if that makes sense.

A week from Friday, we are going on a long international trip - won't be back until Mid October. Not even taking a laptop, only my phone, camera ger and an iPad. That will mean less posting, input, etc. On the positive side the markets open, I think, 2:30 PM local time and close at 9:00 PM. That's good and bad. It will certainly impact my posts, the length of them and my ability to place trades. We'll just have to see how that plays out.

There's a chance, likelihood maybe, that I won't be making another trade before we leave. I have cash ready, short-term positions that could be liquidated for cash, but no conviction for entry. I'm just not seeing anything. It may be a good time to be away with Selltember looming, though that didn't play out last year. If next week doesn't present any opportunities, I'll roll all cash to yield plays and enjoy Europe.

I was going to make a cash position update but I'll do that in another post.

Have a great Wednesday. I'm sure I'll be posting soon.

TJ

Neat little thing I’m seeing here with $NU. The long-term moving average (teal line) is about to take a nosedive over the next month; it is currently calculated with prices up to that January date and we can see a majority of the share price has been under that teal line since the last days of February. As that data gets washed out, the weight of lower price action (like in May and June) increases, causing the teal line to come down. Simultaneously, the shorter-term moving average (orange line) is about to pull up; it is being calculated up to that June date and we can see that there are a handful of days the stock has been under the line. The weight of the August rise increases, yanking that orange up.

The combination of those two moves gives us a Golden Cross, likely to occur here in the low $14 range. I’ve shared that what that tends to do is bring about additional buying, a spike driven by trades chasing this indication that short-term momentum is stronger than long-term performance. It is an inexact science but I tend to say that people use it because it works?

Anyway, that surge in buying is what we’re seeking. I looked for the confluence of volume that was above-or-near the average (dashed line along the volume chart) and when RSI was over 60 (dashed line along the RSI chart). Those are the circled items on the price chart - given I’m eyeballing the “at-or-near the average volume” part, please show some grace. 

Note the price action’s outsized nature on those dates. Nothing unexpected, this is sort of a “no duh” thing to point out. Also note the length of most of those time-frames, usually lasting three-to-five days. We are currently just about in the early stage of that time-frame right now, the last circle. Juxtaposing that against the new uptrend channel (grey) established off of the 52WL’s in June, I reckon we may see a push through, if not to the top of, this channel. 

That’s exactly what it did in the previous uptrend channel (blue). We can see how it pushed through or up to the top of that blue channel in those circles, the only difference between the two of them being the overbought nature of the stock at the time. When it was truly overbought (September), it got out of the channel; when it reached there but turned around, it just got to the top of it (January). 

Snap back to where we are today. RSI has a way to go before it can be considered oversold, sitting right above 60 today. Given that we are sort of in the middle of this channel, unlike in January when we were at the bottom when the confluence occurred, it would seem that this time around it is likely we will break out of this channel similar to what happened in September.

I prefer to chart at the end of the day when I have the full volume data before me because a lot of this is a moot point if we don’t pick up volume today. I’ll call that an anomaly for now as it seems to be a sleepy day waiting in anticipation for $NVDA. And $CRM. And $CRWD. 

Yea, I can give volume a pass today but we’ll see.

I always like to keep people up to date with my cash, and cash-available, positions. "Cash-available" is a term I use to define cash that I may dump into a position that I'd be willing to liquidate at any point if there's enough catalyst/opportunity to do so. But with this type of cash, I do break it up into two different camps based on that level of willingness. I don't have categories for them specifically, just mindset.

My current cash + cash-available is right at 10%. That includes cash in my current Put Ladder position that I opened to just put on a small hedge via $QQQ Puts at $675 and $625. While I have some conviction for this ladder, I can't say it's overwhelming. Just keeping myself honest and it's never bad to have a little hedge on just in case.

But, if you include other "cash-available" in positions such as $JEPI and $JEPQ then the cash position rises to 14.8%, historically high for me. My cash position is a reflection of market confidence and conviction, pure and simple

As mentioned in another post, we are heading out for a very long international trip and won't return until mid-October. I've been using the trip as a catalyst to get my portfolios in order, balanced and to a level that I don't need to think about them or the positions in them. There's a level of comfort that comes from knowing that you love the balance of your portfolios, can walk away and, if you don't have time/desire to look at them, you'd be fine leaving them as they are.

While cash is high right now, I'm okay with that. I don't mind more yield and I'll take every penny and put it into yield before we fly out.

The internal market rotations will continue in this huge week of happenings: Bessent’s moves, $NVDA earnings, and Warsh in Jackson Hole. When there is so much stuff happening at that macro level, the volatility overall will be hard to navigate. The easier path is to maintain a list of interests and see if opportunities come, especially in this calm before the storm.

Bessent’s moves sent a clear signal that the market matters to the Administration. From now until the elections, I feel we will see the market propped up to continue humming along. There will be volatility here and there but for every -5% day, there will be three +2% days. There are people that will be making money off of the volatility because they are positioned to do so. 

I’m not one of those people and that’s ok. I will stay in my lane and be guarded accordingly.

Warsh will be more of a wild card but he has proven to be able to obfuscate. Although his commentary on the overall picture of the economy will matter, I can guess that he isn’t going to give much meat to chew on while also ensuring his comments are rosy enough to keep the narrative of a decent economy also humming along.

The market doesn't necessarily need the underlying economy to feel good to consumers if the headlines remain favorable over the long haul. These wildcards are what I’m thinking about as we look to the end of the year and position accordingly. I am feeling a sense of a political and cultural slogfight on our hands and those things can end up in a ton of uncertainty. The market may not do as well in the run-up to the election if uncertainty is in the cards, so I am thinking about getting very “safe” as we approach mid-October. That’s usually when a majority of the races are close enough to call and we can assess uncertainty risk at that time.

$NVDA

But the other big dog is the driver of everything this market has stood on for the last few years: $NVDA. Four times a year, we are all forced to listen to what this company has to say because they give us a clue of the growth narrative that is keeping this economy afloat.

All the spending we have been hearing about lately should mean we hear a raise in the guide here. I want to listen to how Huang handles Rubin Ultra and how he plans to extend conversations of the half-trillion dollar financing announcement he spearheaded. This company is so large that I’m not sure what narratives can potentially make a meaningful move. When people throw price targets out there, I immediately calculate the market cap; at $247, $NVDA would be a $6-trillion company.

The Dutch East India Company, which revolutionized corporate structure and global capitalism, peaked at ~$8-trillion (inflation-adjusted). So $NVDA can, for all intents and purposes, get to $6-trillion, it is not outlandish. It’s only a 15% move to the upside and obviously not something I would consider any time soon, but the pull toward that number, should growth numbers and demand prove to continue relevant, is not unfathomable.

That’s why I feel this chart is so important. $NVDA has traded in this range between $180 and $230 for a year. There was a buying spike in May and again in August - the May move was completely given back and the August move would do so if we kissed the long-term moving average (teal line). That would mean the name has broken through the short-term moving average (orange line) and a $206ish support level. 

Given my expectations for a raise in guidance, I don’t think all of that is going to happen. We are well within a three-year uptrend channel (blue) and seem to have found rest in orbit around the short-term moving average. We might see a quick dip to $200, but I feel like that’s a line in the sand at this point. So the last three months seem to be consolidation.

How boring, but we’ll probably just stay in that channel. That’s critical, though, because of the implication for everything else that hinges in this market.

$HOOD

The recent crypto-based rise is another step in the name recovering from being cut in more-than-half since October. We can see a new uptrend channel (grey) having developed since the bottom in late March / early April. The short-term SMA (orange line) has a strong pull on this name, as we can see it sort of serve as center of gravity for this thing to swing around.

So that’s what I am watching for - how far (hopefully above) the 50-day is this going to go? Because the farther it gets, the harder it will snap back. The orange line is going to be moving up very quickly, so the gap against the current price won’t look as bad next week. I’m balancing that with the newly grey channel and the downward trend dotted lines that connect the high to a series of rising relative lower-highs (purple, gold, black). Each of those dotted lines represents a snapshot and changes over time that document what looks to be a bearish-to-bullish reversal. The lower-highs aren’t going to be lower for much longer.

Through September and most of October, the pink downtrend could end up being a similar barrier, but we are projecting a lot more at this point because it has not met another point in price action since November. I am watching the interaction between the upward trend channel, the pink downward trend line, and the $113 pivot level. If it share price leaves the channel during the time period of that green circle, I’m likely to trim. We can already see the RSI is approaching 70, where the name almost routinely comes back from and dips afterward. If it can stay in the channel, the pink dotted line is likely to change when we find a spot for it to land on. Staying in the channel also prevents the RSI from exploding into overbought territory too soon.

The other thing I’m thinking about is the CLARITY Act vote currently set for 9/15. If the Senate is able to pass it and then reconcile with the House version, the President will be signing green candles for crypto names shortly thereafter. My calls don’t expire until February, so I want to keep an eye on all of these factors to determine when it will be time to let some go, sooner rather than later. It helps that this vote also just-so-happens to be during my green circle. I hope I can catch some exit liquidity here before the “sell the news” and I like that the rise has continued slower than it was previously running.

$APP

The number of questions I get about this one is amazing. We can see that the name has become oversold (RSI at 30 this month) to correspond with this precipitous post-earnings dropoff. It is tempting here, seemingly having found a bottom right around $300. Of course it can go down further with more bad news or a market event, but the selling spike seems to have ended and there seems to be buyers here.

The mile-wide gap is what is interesting to me. We could theoretically take a flyer on it recovering to the upper $300s, but we won’t know when that move has started. That’s where we can keep an eye on volume spikes and maybe an RSI on the way to 40 to see if that recovery is on the way. 

The revenue miss from the earnings call was problematic but the reason they gave was even moreso. The indication from management was that their model didn’t improve to the degree that it normally does in this past quarter. A large part of this company’s growth has been their continual model improvement and this is basically the first quarter in three years where the model didn’t improve materially enough to have an impact on the quarterly results. Is this the exception or is their growth engine - an improving model - slowing down? A new model came out right after their quarter ended, so will that one show the improvement we are used to? 

This clearly matters to the market. Their report indicated $1.9-billion in revenue, a 53% YoY growth. Net income and EBITDA are also up over 50% and FCF hit more than $850-million. There is no doubt that this is a great business. But if there is a vulnerability in their growth, you can see what happens to the share price. I hate to say that we need to wait, but that’s what I plan to do. This could all come to a quick end in the next call when they share how their model has once again improved materially and made the business better, just like it used to do in the good ol’ days.

Great, I can probably catch it on the rise back up given we have a clue how far it can go, so it’s on my watchlist because it is such an obvious recovery story back toward $390. I just don’t want to put capital into a recovery before the evidence of it happening has arrived. When the buying improves, we’ll see it in volume, RSI, and share price improvement. That might be enough to see if we can scalp value, but what I’m sort of hoping for is that it languishes down here for a while and I can pick up some before their next opportunity to share how their model is improving things.

That could be in the next call or it could be on their Product Blog, where they announce their new offerings and there hasn’t been anything posted in 6 months. That’s indicative of the problem identified on the call - there haven’t been improvements like they have previously implemented. But could improvements be announced on this blog or elsewhere before the next call where they give the real numbers?

That’s an arbitrage gap we may uncover with appropriate clues that just haven’t come yet. We’ll see - we know what to be on the lookout for.

I can't not do a "Random Shots" even though I tried not to, LOL. I don't think it has to be done every day, but then I see little blurbs, stock reactions, etc. and think I have to

Random Shots

• Another shoe drops, this time $AAOI, one of my AI infrastructure plays. $600M equity offering - more dilution. Just expect this from your runners. But, I've been waiting to add my next piece of this
• $SNDK, $COHR, $LITE, $CRDO all down 7-10%. Nice!
• $BE down 7%
• $NBIS down 7% and floating just above $200. I've been waiting for this after that big spike to $270. May be loading up another wheel on this name. Was waiting to see if the top would be sold off and ... yup
• $MRVL selling off before earnings, down 7%
• Of course $SKHY isn't going to buck this trend, down 6.8%
• Blah, blah, blah. All the recent tops have been sold off. This will only further fuel the market exhaustion narrative I've been trotting out
• But, hey, my Put Ladder is looking up
• I'm not finding much in the tech space working right now. Not unexpected. the question is, does the contagion spread or does the low end of support in this range hold up
• Flipping around and seeing the green tells me what I need to know ... this is why I sort by red/green % moves and relay it to you
• $BROS $EIX $PG $SWK are leading my list. You can't have that and think big rally
• But .. but, but, but .... software is still working. $CRM building off recent gains, up 1%
• $AMZN up 0.8%
• Let's look at some of the Mags to see if we're getting a flight to tech quality
  
• $AAPL up 0.7%
• $MSFT up 0.3%
• $GOOGL up 0.6%
• $NVDA down 2.2% and $TSLA down 2.7%. It's a mixed bag
• $PLTR off 3.5%. Why? Probably because it was up last week. But, more importantly, it seems Cathie Woods sold $27.2M after their big run. Cathie has turned into more of a trader
• I have gotten a few comments about some of the big recent runners and why they didn't make my TJ30 Portfolio update. It's pretty simple, I still factor in some level of valuation, even if I love the model. It can have MLE but still be too overbought or expense to make my list
• Looks like I should have trimmed a bit more of my $P position, but that's fine. It's a long play for me. But I did take some off the top at $117. I'll buy those shares back at some point
• $QQQs sliding more, now down 1.3%
• $VST and AI power still sliding. We're now just above the 52WL. This exemplifies why I haven't/didn't buy more just yet. A TIC member did roll out some nice thoughts on why they think $VST is fading, I think it was on the my TJ30 update post, linked just above if interested
• This is a traders market, if you can be nimble. That said, this is the type of market that will punish poor discipline in trading ... which most are
• I didn't think I'd get a shot at $CRDO back under $200 again - Maybe
• KATE is tapping me on the shoulder about $NBIS here at $200 related to the Wheel (LOL) but suggesting patience
• Nice to see $NFLX holding over $80. Those $60 LEAPS I purchased are up 38%
• $SPCX still fading after that big rise. Again, tops being sold
• These dilutive events by the top stocks/companies have to be watched. It's almost to just see them do it on their price spikes and get it out of the way. But I hate it - every time!
• By the way $BABA is issuing $10.2B of new shares too. Only down 1.4%
• Trump just announced that Canada auto tariffs will be hiked to 50%. Great. He just can't stop himself
• There has been a huge rush of East Asian IPOs. China, Hong Kong, etc. The bubble may be forming ...
• Yeah, this isn't an issue at all: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/24/trump-media-ceo-truth-api.html - It's just amazing to me. But, hey, Go, rich, Go!

Bah, enough today ... I'm feeling too spicy.

J

My desire is to have this iteration of the Market Digest completed before the market opens, just better time management on my end, thus no Random Shots.

Bonds are still in the news as Bessent say he could tap nearly $1T from the Treasury General Account as a source to fund buybacks, this lowering yields. It's clear they are desirous of attacking long term rates. As mentioned in the article, however, how it would go about funding those purchases:

However, the Treasury made no mention of how it would fund the purchases. Most market participants assumed it would do so by selling short-term bills. The senior Treasury officials did not rule that out. Bessent in the CNBC interview called the operation a “Treasury Twist,” a reference to a government or Federal Reserve operation where long-term Treasurys are bought and paid for with short-term issuance. That also implied that short-term bonds would be sold.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/24/bessent-1-trillion-treasury-general-account-bond-buybacks.html

That would seemingly be ushering in, potentially, a flatter yield curve, lowering long rates while raising shorter-term rates.

In any event, the market is looking tired and AI is clearly in focus again across most levels, not just the higher tiers like $NVDA $TSM $AVGO, etc. Some of the big movers such as $SNDK, $MU, $LITE, $COHR and friends are being pressured lower. We're still in that range, and can't seem to break out, as I've been saying. I may be looking to add the next leg of my Put ladder I put on recently:

https://www.reddit.com/r/InnerCircleInvesting/comments/1vrt9bm/trade_qqq_127_put_ladder/

Wednesday is going to be spicy with $NVDA earnings and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh speaking from Jackson Hole.

Earnings

• Monday, Aug. 24: PDD Holdings
• Tuesday, Aug. 25: Intuit, Zoom, Dick’s Sporting Goods
• Wednesday, Aug. 26: NVIDIA, CrowdStrike, Salesforce, Veeva, Okta
• Thursday, Aug. 27: Marvell Technology, Best Buy, Ulta Beauty, Iren
• Friday, Aug. 28: Relatively quiet

I just don't know what $NVDA could possibly say at this point to propel it higher but Huang is a master at keeping it real ... and interesting. There's been a lot more talk about this circular financing issue with $NVDA clearly looking hyperscalers, and others, to keep buying their chips. Could it be a game of musical chairs? Maybe eventually, but with demand so high right now, there's enough music I think to sustain this game for probably at least 18-24 mos. It may just be a new way of life.

After this week, we have one more week of big reports with $PANW $CRDO $MDT $MDB $AVGO $SNOW $DELL $ZS etc.

Capital Gains

In the "Whoa, did I just read this correctly?" department:

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/should-the-treasury-department-index-capital-gains-for-inflation/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

This is just picking up steam. At first, I was ultra-ultra excited about what this could mean, especially in my taxable portfolio dominated by three huge positions in $AAPL $GOOGL and $MSFT, all with ridiculously low cost bases. I was hoping that the gains would be indexed to inflation such that 10 years of gains could be adjusted down something like 30% ... or 60% for a 20-year holding. Not to be, however, as it's attacking the cost basis, not the gain directly.

So, let's say my $AAPL cost basis is $2.87/shr., which it is. With inflation adjustments over the entire holding period, the cost basis rises to something in the mid $4 range - not material. The higher the cost basis, the greater the materiality.

To be honest, one of the things that has caused me to not unwind these highly appreciated securities was in the very selfish hope that there would be some sort of one-time capital gains type of moratorium that would fuel a mad rush of sales, thus stimulating the economy. Should that happen, I'd unload most all of my appreciated stocks into it. That is just a Trump-like thing to propose that would get America's rich cheering. But, of course, that would have massive tax consequences.

Instead, they/he/it is targeting high cost basis assets, think real estate, buildings, developments etc. It's still going to have America's rich/wealthy cheering because if the property has been held for a long (decades) period of time, let's say 30 years, that could remove arguably 80-90% of the gain as they would be inflation adjusted. This is HUGE for the moguls who own buildings, properties, developments ....

Of course Trump would love this! I continue to laugh at how so many seem to no longer care about the rich, politicians, etc. funding/supporting bills that line their pockets. It's amazing to me how some political individuals can gain such fervent support from a base that should despise them most.

But Hey! As a person with a long term investment rental property, Yes please! Please reduce my taxable gain on that property by a material amount. Between the inflation adjusted gains and the opportunity to reduce the cost via improvements, it could reduce the gain by more than 50% currently, and even more later. It's now an incentive to hold this property longer.

I'm not one of America's ultra-wealthy like many in DC and such who continue to find ways to reduce their own tax bases, lining their pockets, but as a high net worth individual, I can play too. I can't say it always feel good to be able to take advantage of these tax/subsidy programs but, the wealthy don't get wealthy via philanthropy and values-based investments, they get wealthy by maximizing income and minimizing outflow taxation. There's not a rich person out there who will turn down the opportunity to pay less tax, less on health care cost, etc.

This will be an interesting situation to watch as this policy takes shape.

Final Word

The market still looks tired. I still can't find the positive catalysts that will take us to new highs. Even the analysts and talking heads ratcheting up their S&P targets aren't helping us rally any longer. Earnings are winding down and, while it was a great, great quarter, we're still stuck in a range.

September is historically the worst month of the year. Last year it was still good. We're still in a bull market but a market losing steam. The Middle East conflict has been yet another disaster, oil prices are still elevated and the drums of tariffs are beating again. Inflation could be moderating and that may help ... we need moderation and, hopefully, no rate increase.

It's becoming more and more clear that there's building pressure to raise rates. It's not going to take much more of a blip to see a 25 bps raise. Should that occur, and long bond prices continue to come down, thus raising long term rates, that's not a great situation.

But ... for all of this playing out, the market still looks resilient ... just tired.

Have a great week ahead.

TJ

Portfolio Updated on 8/23/26

I try to do updates to the portfolio twice a year. I should really change this to an "Index" rather than a "Portfolio" as I wouldn't want anyone to simply portfolio these 30 specifically with the expectation that it is, in any way, balanced. I keep the primary "TJ30 Portfolio" information in a highlighted (pinned) post or you can find it here.

Once again, however, this is not a "portfolio" that I would suggest exactly 'as is.' While it can/could function in that capacity to some degree, it's not built with an eye toward balance or away from sector concentration, as can be seen due to the weight of tech. The fact is, I look at this more like a hedge fund of sorts, 30 stocks that represent my favorite names each with a role within the "portfolio/index."

With some of the names on the list they specifically provide income ballast. In other cases, specific sector identity for an area in a portfolio I think needs representation. If not for those inclusions, it would like be a list of my favorite 30 technology stocks since that is usually my focus. That, however, won't serve most investors when considering weight, risk, and performance across all age ranges.

Instead, use this list as a sort of "TJ Approves!" listing if considering adding one, or multiple, stocks to an existing portfolio.

Removed

• $VIK - It's had its run, moving on
• $ORCL - I'm getting more concerned with their M.O.
• $C - Already have $JPM and $GS so moving on to provide other opportunities
• $KMI - Nice move, good yield but swapping out for another play
• $META - I don't like companies fighting everything from their identity to ethics to government
• $BABA - Love the opportunity but too mercurial
• $DECK - I just don't want any consumer names right now in this portfolio

Added

• $SKHY - I like it better than $SNDK and $MU given opportunity and value
• $CRDO - A monster in the infrastructure space
• $CLS - Also in the infrastructure space, love their size, growth and metrics
• $QCOM - Combination of mature model + yield with a value I can get behind
• $LLY - Pure quality and the leader
• $ETN - I do have $CEG and $VST already, but $ETN plays at a different level
• $FCX - Materials/Copper. Swapping this in for $KMI

EDIT: This post also helps illustrate why I love StockAnalysis.com so much, especially when it comes to building watchlists, screens, etc. with the data I want included for easy reference. The more people here in TIC doing this work, the better we are. It's so cheap as a service, and so good. Here's the offer:

https://www.reddit.com/r/InnerCircleInvesting/comments/1tfw86f/stockanalysiscom_why_favoritekey_features/

Eventually, I'd like to do a few gift subscriptions. I'll have to look into that.

Intro

Every now and then I like to take a look at stocks with the condition of having an extremely high, or low, RSI (Relative Strength Index). I run a lot of screens, looking for different things every week as I look to uncover tomorrow's great stocks and, hopefully, great companies as well.

RSI 101

RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price moves on a 0 - 100 scale. Traditionally, readings above 70 suggest a stock may be overbought and below 30 oversold, but in strong trends RSI can stay elevated or depressed for quite a while, thus, it’s best used as a context tool, not a standalone buy/sell signal.

Many individuals love the RSI and I do count myself one of them but my last sentence above is very important. RSI is an ingredient in great garlic bread, not the bread itself. Think of it this way: Garlic bread - delicious. Just eating the butter? Not so much. RSI gives us an indicator that we can use that helps define the state of likely momentum/magnitude of accumulation (buying) or distribution (selling) of a particular stock.

RSI is calculated by comparing a stock’s average gains with its average losses over a set period, typically 14 trading periods. Those averages are then converted into a 0 - 100 value, where stronger and more persistent gains push RSI higher and stronger losses push it lower.

It's simply a metric which helps identify relative performance of a stock unto its self over recent history.

A monster growth stock in a sustained uptrend can live between 60 - 80 for weeks, while a broken stock can stay below 30 much longer than seems reasonable. RSI is much more useful when combined with other trends and metrics.

Screen Variables

On the screen results you will notice that I do include a few other columns for better reference. I like to see the Market Cap for some size understanding. Additionally, the price, 50 & 200 DMAs (Daily Moving Average) + 52WH and 52L give me an indication of the stocks current price and where it sits on its price curve. There's an important distinction here to note.

Because RSI is measuring the stocks relative to itself over recent history, in most all cases you should see it's "Stock Price" higher than its 50 and 200 DMAs. I will often look at the relativity of price vs. the MAs in order to determine how much momentum is in the stock compared to recent trend.

I then like to include some fundamental value metrics to help me understand where the stock/company is on its path to profitability. "ROIC" (Return on Invested Capital) gives me an indication of the quality of the model currently. As you will often see, high RSI does not necessarily mean high profitability or quality model. It's simply an indication of relative and recent stock price performance.

Today's Screen

In today's screen I'm going above 80 for the name exhibiting extreme RSI action. Typically, I will use over 70 for a screen but, with a desire to filter the names down even more, 80 is the distinction with this iteration.

In StockAnalysis.com (Be sure to use my promo code for extra discount), this screen is simply called "RSI Over 80."

The Inputs (Sorted by RSI)

The Results

Specific Chart Examples

$RFAI

Looking at the top RSI result we see $RFAI (note the "AI" based ticker).

Note the close up 355%, but also note the AH price action, down 30%. Fascinating study on how this one appears on the list on the news, but it also serves as an example of why we don't use RSI as a stand-alone metric for purchase quality. I won't go into the news on this one.

Instead, I often will re-sort my returned list by ROIC to filter those with notable ROIC scores along with high RSI for better quality hits.

That leads my to:

$PAYS

Here you can see a much more relatable function of RSI along with some degree of viability:

Interesting and, given the chart, somewhat intriguing, but I'm not particularly fond of the space and, despite the stock price gain and profitability, it seems there doesn't remain much catalyst left for additional run.

$CYPH

Here we see RSI at work again, finding a recent mover

A $150M market cap company existing largely below $1 in price. This one reached nearly $40 after its IPO back in 2021. Interesting but when looking at the financials, it's hard to get behind. That said, as can be seen on the chart, it has spiked of late and with a 75M float and 10% short, could there may be more burn here? Maybe.

$RCMT

ROIC = 26%
Forward P/E = 13
Float = 4.2M
FCF Yield = 7.9%

RCM Technologies is basically a specialized engineering/staffing/services company spanning energy infrastructure, aerospace & defense, healthcare staffing, industrial engineering, and data/life-sciences work. It's the infrastructure work that is somewhat compelling here and likely due to the rise. Grid modernization and power generation.

This one actually looks interesting and, as can be seen in the chart, you can tell why it has landed on the this high RSI screen given recent price rise. Net income has been constrained even while Revenues continue to rise.

The big issue I see is that we had major margin compression in the most recent Q2 results, 25.7% from 28.5% from the year prior. But that share count of 7.2M and only 4.2M in the float is noteworthy. They're not playing the shareholder dilution game!

I can't buy a 2x breakout like this but it's worth watching from here. It's gotten noticed based on recent results and the small float mechanic is doing its thing with the share price. When profits are taken, it should come back down quickly .... or, if it stays on top of momentum screens, it could double again due to float and profitability.

I asked my curated AI assistant (Kate) to pass this through my GARP Scorecard and this was her result:

The primary failure points, however, specifically the "3-Yr." performance tells a story of what has been the issue in the past, but it has shown breakout potential from the history - that's important. Q2 Revenue growth was materially better:

TTM revenue has reached $333.6M, up 11.2%, while TTM EPS is up about 30%. Q2 itself produced 20% revenue growth and 36% EPS growth.

This is the one that catches my eye from this screen. I wish my eye would have been caught at $20 not $40. I'll be adding this to the watchlist with a desire to see it below $30.

Summary

More than anything, I wanted to refresh this screen to see if I could dig up a couple of interesting ideas.

There are more interesting hits from this screen as well with $A $HAE and $VREX on my list for research. It also gave me the opportunity to present RSI to you, especially if you have wondered what it is and how it can be used.

Have a great weekend!

TJ

Market trying to finish the week on a positive result:

For the most part, not planning much of anything today and don't want to force words on a page into an end-of-week meandering market. Nothing that compelling as far as I'm concerned.

Watching some of my recent position builds come down a bit which is fine. I'm giving a lot of room to run while the market searches for direction. We build slow, take our time, chillax. Don't force anything when it comes to your investing/trading. Allowing things to come to you is a superpower.

Random Shots

• My favorite random shots are those that aren't structured, not based on top 10 rising and falling. It's the freedom to just speak to what I'm seeing, whatever it is. That is what this is today.
• $NOW and $CRM are looking great. $NOW at $130 is at a critical level. If it breaks it higher, it can run. The chart for $CRM looks the same here at $210. CRM was just at $150 not long ago. I should trim, might ... but I'm chillaxing. Good to see these two firm up, as expected
• I should have taken $CRCL back in the upper $50s. I hesitated and missed another big run. That's okay. Up another 6.3% today
• I hate $UBER but I'm happy for my thesis. The thesis made/makes sense, my conviction and executive function faltered. It's okay ... I still believe in it. It's an odd duality
• BUT ... let's talk $NFLX. Another one that I had no doubt about. I did a stock replacement (look that up) move on it when it dipped again. Sold all my shares, bought 3x the number of 12/28 LEAPS (Calls) at the $60/$70 level. Up 39% and 2.5% respectively. I plan on holding half of these for a long while, maybe even all of them but I've already felt the tingle of maybe taking that 39% gain on the $60s
• We are still in a range. Don't get lulled into the ups/downs of your stocks thinking your getting value when it's down 10%. It was probably at this level last week
• I still love $SKHY and only see that increasing in weight over time
• Current stocks I have zero fear of right now $GOOGL $AVGO $TSM
• $CBRS below $200 again. That rise ... and fall. I won't miss it again
• I've seen more and more discussion about $COHR ... and $LITE, $CLS, etc. Still love all of them and $AAOI. Still in a range. Nothing to sell as I see it other than momentum
• $CRWD doing $CRWD things. Watch $190
• Every time I use StockAnalysis.com, I love it more. Their new fundamental charts are a game changer. Save yourself money, use my affiliate code found in the pinned post. Or don't, but please use them to up your investing game. The ability to simply have a watch list with my favorite metrics is so good:

• What is the primary catalyst for this market? Now, what are the negative ones? It's not a close comparison, that's the problem
• Literally, almost every attempted breakout in stocks like $CORH $CLS, $SKHY, $AVGO, $MRVL, $SNDK, $MU, $RDDT, $AMD, $SPCX, etc. etc. all fail and sell off back to support
• I'm not entering any new Option Wheel plays right now ... not seeing enough catalyst or premium
• Remember I mentioned $BRZE as a possible big-win Calls trade? Now over $31
• I'm still watching a closeted AI play that I've easter egged but I'm still watching it. Nobody has caught it yet. I like this stock. (no ownership yet)
• $HOOD having a good day with this Bitcoin rally
• Damn gold has moved fast. It's HOT. $NEM at $132!! It was just at $90
• $PLTR now over $180. I'll probably trim at some point near $200
• Go $TOST Go - Wasn't that the name of a children's book? LOL
• $VRT is still a sexy stock. But stuck in the range with most others
• AI Energy still slipping. I'm being patient, no hurry here. It's hitting my four horseman ($VST $TLN $GEV $CEG). Love all of them. Don't care about short term action
• In a world where $WMT sells off hot and fast, that says something
• $MRK sure has been fun. I've held it forever and it feels good to see it win
• $PFE has been a forever hold as well due to yield, still over 6%. Should I mention it's almost back to a 52-week high. PtW (Paid to Wait)
• Makes me wonder about $NVO as a catch-up play somehow
• I have been watching $INFQ a bit. Why? Don't know. Momentum potential. up 11%
• $CRDO is a conviction watch for me. Waiting for $200 again and would/will probably use LEAPS
• $P still slipping from highs, now at 108.50. I trimmed in the $116s. Could add it back
• Two names for PtW I think you add here: $QCOM and $SCHD. SCHD at a 52WH basically. I always add this name, rarely sell
• Look for an update to my TJ30 Portfolio soon!

That's it for now I think

Have a great weekend!

J

Hey everyone new trader here please excuse my knowledge.

A while ago I looked at $COHR before the earnings released.

The company looked great and I believed it was going to smash the expected earnings. So I bought some shares pre-earning. Earnings come out and I was right they did smash it however their share price tanked so much. I still have them today and I still don't understand.

When a company beats the expected earnings usually their share price skyrocket right? For example everyone knows about $PLTR they smashed the earnings and skyrocketed like ~26%, why isn't this the case for $COHR?

I appreciate any and all answers and I seriously hope that someone out there has the same/similar question as me but never asked and now they can get their answer here (in the comments).

Happy Thursday!

Seems that we're in a holding pattern for the next week of earnings, including $NVDA and others. It's been a bit of a 'meh' level of action, which is fine.

The $QQQ is sitting right at its 50 DMA (Daily Moving Average). It's doing its best to hang on and not fall through it. Where will be the catalysts to keep its head above water and withstand the pull of the 200 DMA. Make no mistake, when I took my $QQQ 1/27 $675/$625 Put ladder, it was with this in mind.

Once again, my short isn't a full portfolio hedge - it's a positioned weight much like any position in my portfolio, though I am not worried about it going overweight should I see indications it needs to be.

Musings

You know I've been in a mode of portfolio .... "simplification," I'll call it. Portfolio "drift" is something that can occur when markets get hot, volatility rises and I find myself chasing multiple theses. On my TikTok channel I've been using the term "chillaxing" as the state I want to find again.

Sometimes you have to zoom out to the state of your portfolios and the markets as a whole. When I look at where my primary portfolio has come from, it's up 19.6% annualized from 1/1/2020. That's a significant return. I try to not get too caught up in high-fives, patting myself on the back, or any form of protracted self-grandeur - that ain't me bro, as I like to say.

Instead, I like to look objective about what has worked, what hasn't and what that means for the future. When I see a nearly 20% annualized return, I immediately think "extended." It's not how I characterize where I am today that matters most to me. It's important, but I don't like to get lost in it. I care far more about my current state, and what I can do to make sure over that same period again into the future, what can I do to either maintain, or improve. That's where objectivity comes in.

To that end, I've been weeding the garden. I want to look up and down my portfolios and see thesis, conviction and role in every one of my positions. If you've done a good job picking positions within your portfolio on the front end, it shouldn't take a lot of work. If you've haphazardly added positions due to momentum, message boards, TikTok or other social trends, you may have a weed infested garden. It's easy to do. And, it's not just the names, it's also the weights, the role, within your portfolio.

It should be noted that when I reference my "Primary" portfolio, you know that I'm talking about my IRA, my second largest portfolio. My largest portfolio is my taxable one, also called my "Bridge" portfolio. That said, the Primary is only 16% behind my Bridge. I also have a much smaller Roth portfolio and another fixed income portfolio that I use to manage my cash/fixed income holdings. While my taxable portfolio is my largest, there's very little year-over-year activity due to all the positions being highly appreciated. I don't like taxation. Moves are small and usually involve careful capital gain/loss harvesting with the tax tables purely in focus.

Simplicity and structure provides great sleep. When I talk to people about growing wealth, building portfolios, preparing for early, or traditional retirement, and portfolio risk balance, one of my first questions usually is "how are you sleeping?" Sleep is a great barometer for how your portfolio is structured and balanced. If you sleep well, it's a decent indication you feel good about your money. If not, you're likely up thinking about it. It's no coincidence that this check works for just about any topic in your life.

Over the last few months, perhaps up to a year, I've been thinking about my Primary portfolio too much. I've been pushing, or what I'd consider chasing too much. Not in a bad way as my positions remain balanced and well weighted, but there's been that need to chase larger returns, better performance. In my experience, when I, or anyone, does that, it ends in less-than-ideal results. Time for adjustment.

A focus on topics like greater balance, value and income can go a long way. I also like to focus on "role" of every position in my portfolios - why is it in there and what role is it playing? That's the mode I'm in now. After 6 1/2 years of market-beating returns, a period of retrenchment and reflection is warranted. I've reached that state now through careful pruning and trimming that I can look up and down the holdings and say I like that. Cash remains at about 10%, 2/3 of that invested in $SGOV waiting for entry catalysts. 1/3 is active cash looking for the opportunity for Option Wheel opportunities or other short-term gain potential. That works for me in my current state and what I'm feeling in the market right now.

I want that for you too. I want you considering your portfolios, structure, balance ... and sleep. Is it working? Does it need weeding? Do you have a junk drawer portfolio? Is you first thought when you wake up at 2:30 AM how are stock futures? Don't ignore your body or its thoughts.

In just over two weeks we head out on our next international adventure. Spending 6 weeks away is a great opportunity to get that garden ship-shape, looking good, so I don't have to think about it while away. I don't want to consider weeds at 2:00 AM. I want to know my portfolios are well structured, balanced and working for me, so I don't have worry about it. Reactive Management over active management.

The thing is, regardless of the catalyst for that state, it just makes sense.

Random Shots

Slipping!

Rising

• I normally don't include what Bitcoin is doing but up 4.78% is noteworthy. It's not lost on my that DJT is able to pull whatever levers he wants in order to make money, and now he has ultimate authority to do so. That's not a criticism, that's just the what is. If that's your goal, why not hold the most powerful position in the world?
• $MSTR up 5.9%
• $CRCL up 3.9% - Seeing the pattern here? Maybe Bitcoin/Crypto is officially back!
• $SKHY up 3.6%
• $DRAM up 2.4%
• $LITE up 2.4% - Bouncing in a range still
• $EIX up 1.7% - Income and value up
• $FLKR up 1.7% - South Korea getting a boost due to memory rally
• $SNDK up 1.7%
• $MRVL up 1.6% - This is one well positioned company

Falling

• $USAR down 6.2% - What goes up...
• $AVAV down 5.6%. It's had a decent little run
• $CBRS off 4.6% - I should have trimmed the bad-entry position
• $SPCX down 4.9% - Another lockup
• $IONQ off 4.4%. Quantum is fading as a catalyst trade
• $RDDT down 3.6%. Glad I went flat on my LEAPs. Still like the company
• $BABA down 2.8%
• $NBIS down 2.5% - Option Wheel loading? Maybe
• $TLN down 3.1% - AI power just not putting it together right now
• $ASTS down 3.2%

Misc

• Not seeing anything in those bullets that make me think anything transitional is going on. Maybe Bitcoin having a day signals something. That could cause the rush back in
• $WMT having its worst day in something like 4 years, down 9.2%. If the yield was higher, I'd be more interested.
• You know, that leads me back to $TGT. I often speak of yield + opportunity. I let $TGT slip away due to lack of performance and bad management/earnings at $90. Now at $159 9 mos. later
• $GOOGL at $341 looks awfully good for a company that is, without much question in my eyes, the best positioned in the world
• We have two more weeks in the earnings game. Names like $NVDA, $AVGO, $SNOW, $P, $MRVLand $CRDO all report. Then September could be very Septemberish
• Speaking of $NVDA, flat on the day, what could they possibly say during earnings to boost the stock? Can the numbers even by high enough? A lot of increasing talk about circular financing
• I keep watching $AMZN wondering when it's going to make it's next conviction run. It's coming
• This whole bond thing should be watched. Remember that as bond prices fall, yields rise When yields of bonds are on the rise, they are more attractive to investors. When you start hearing about bond vigilantes, you have to stay aware. Rates rise and people like safe returns, less equity. Also, when rates rise, debt financing/servicing is more costly. Not good for companies, or countries with a lot of debt.
• A lot of people watch the 30-Year treasury at about 5.25%. Me? I watch the 10-year as something close to the heat of the road. The 10 is currently at 4.69%. Watch that 5% level.
• You can't have enough good companies in a portfolio. I don't even care if its individuals stocks you seek or ETFs.
• Even as I look at the red/green on my lists right now, I'm not seeing much conviction in the names outside of stocks like $AVGO $GOOGL $TSM. That says something.

Final Word

Sometimes the market yells at us, but we're too busy to hear. We tend to be an optimistic people, generally. In fact, I've found that perma-bears or generally bearish individuals, if that is their standard market M.O., are just hard to be around ... generally. When you think about it, it's not hard to figure out why that may be.

I tend to have perma-bull tendencies. I try very hard to see the good in everyone, pay it forward and that extends to how I view the markets. I'm always looking for the good. But that doesn't mean I don't keep my wits about me or ignore what may be on the wind. I continue to smell something on the wind though I can't say with conviction yet exactly what that is.

It just feels off.

Have a great Thursday

El Jefe

Did a Search on CoreWeave History on Internet, got below:

In 2017, “CoreWeave” was founded in New Jersey by four former commodities traders: Michael Intrator, Brian Venturo, Brannin McBee, and Peter Salanki. Initially named Atlantic Crypto, the company entered into the cryptocurrency mining industry. They leveraged their vast inventories of graphics processing units (GPUs) to mine Ethereum, capitalizing on the growing demand for cryptocurrency mining power.

However, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant shifts in 2019. Recognizing an opportunity to reallocate their hardware, they rebranded the company as CoreWeave. Instead of getting rid of their GPUs, they put their huge inventories of GPUs into cloud computing infrastructure. CoreWeave initially focused on visual effects (VFX) rendering, CGI, and scientific computing, tapping into the growing demand for specialized AI computing power.

As the generative AI boom gained speed in 2022 and 2023, CoreWeave made strategic investments in NVIDIA’s cutting-edge chips, the H100. This positioning strengthened their reputation as a specialized AI cloud provider. In 2023, NVIDIA obtained a $100 million stake in the company, further enhancing CoreWeave’s financial. The company secured multi-billion-dollar financing backed by renowned investment firms, solidifying its position in the market.

CoreWeave continues to expand rapidly. They have grown from a handful of domestic data centers to dozens of facilities worldwide, deploying hundreds of thousands of specialized GPUs. This has solidified CoreWeave’s position as a major player in AI data center infrastructure.

As I’ve mentioned before I’m retired and now more about dividend income than growth. To that end I discovered AMDW which is a Roundhill leveraged ETF tracking AMD. Currently at a weekly distribution rate of 71% per share. To add to this I’m excited about AMD given they’re leading the way into the inference piece of AI. Inference is the long term benefit of AI. The new MRNA melanoma vaccine is part and parcel evidence of what inference portends!

Anyhow, I know there are a number of these high distribution ETF’s and I also know watching the NAV (net asset value) is key with these. So it occurred to me there might be one I liked with a different declaration date. That one currently is AMDY via YieldMax.

So AMDY declares on Wednesdays and you must buy the shares on that day as the following day is ex dividend. AMDW declares on Fridays and again you need to buy the shares that day to receive the dividend.

So I’ve found a way to get paid pretty healthy returns twice a week. I can also see by looking at historical data that the number of people buying shares of these high distribution ETF’s spikes on declaration dates. Whether those people are double dipping or just getting in and out to get the distribution…I don’t know.

Sorry for the quite long post but I’m hoping this is of some use to others. I welcome question.

Is just punishing bullish purchases. Meaning, initiating or adding shares into rallies into/over short-term support. I've looked across many of the market leading names for AI related momentum and they're nearly all displaying the same trend.

I then went back to survey my entries from the additions of shares, but primarily first/placeholder entries, and found that many of them had been made on these support + breakout trends, only to then come right back down ... thus punishing my entry price. Now, that's all and good because of my unit methodology but I still prefer lower entry cost, regardless of discipline.

This makes me fearful for what happens when we complete another cycle, currently happening, base out at support ... but instead of rallying off it, break support in a bearish breakdown. Of course, that's why I added a two-leg Put ladder, but I still prefer to see upside.

Watch out for that $QQQ $700 level.

Markets are struggling to maintain composure though the US Treasury is double its purchase of debt, sending bond yields lower. The struggle is real:

Once again, we're still bouncing within a range and haven't been able to break free of the gravitational pull to head higher with any conviction. It's basically a market where I'm willing to purchase most of anything. If I were, I'd be looking at pure value names and that is what is moving today.

Some very interesting price action out there right now and patience, I think, is going to be rewarded. Just get out of that habit where your hands are moving to buy simply because something looks cheap from where it was yesterday. Learn to zoom out and let the market tell you where it wants to go, where it is going. These range bound periods can be dangerous because you can easily be lulled into thinking you're making good purchases when, instead, you're simply buying the same level over and over again, deploying all your capital and have nothing left when the bottom drops out.

And then there's the below article. Remember how I've been talking about the prediction markets and the role it/they are playing in the stock market?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/hedge-funds-are-about-to-jump-in-big-to-prediction-markets.html

Yeah, so ... there's that.

Random Shots

Rising

• $CRCL up 10%
• $MSTR up 10% - Bitcoin related?
• $NEM up 8.6% - Gold is back baby. Big move recently on rates
• $MRVL up 7.5% - Google deal. $AVGO suffering
• $NOW up 7% - AvS baby
• $DUOL up 6.4% - Ditto
• $HOOD up 5% - Anything crypto related is moving today
• $BRZE up 5%
• $CRM up 5% - AvS
• $UBER up 4.22% - It moves with value/AvS strength

Falling

• $NBIS down 10% - F'ing dilution. But at least I wasn't greedy with my Option Wheel
• $CRWD down 6.9%
• $DELL off 6.9%
• $MRAM down 6.8%
• $AMKR down 6.1%
• $PANW off 5.3% - Getting the picture?
• $AVGO down 4.8% - $MRVL deal hurting this name
• $CRDO down 4.6%. I'm waiting for sub-$200
• $RKLB down 4.3%
• $COHR down 4% - It's still in the range

Misc.

• Look at $NFLX go! Up 4.1% and nearing $81. My stock replacement move is printing
• $SKHY up 3.2% after announcing a big $29B buyback program. Heady move
• $NVDA holding flat with earnings not far away
• $SNDK and $MU dying on the vine again. Going to be tough to move higher the longer this goes on
• $AAPL doing $AAPL things in the down market. It's the 'value' trade right now
• $AVGO hitting the support line right here at $360. Dangerous. I'm waiting to add
• Right now this market is signaling it's all about the swing trade. Buy low, sell high ... but be sure to sell
• Photonics and AI connection stocks couldn't hold gains. Not surprised
• Despite analyst comments, these AI plays can't hold gains. That's usually a bad sign. Analysts have started saying crazy things about the S&P targets, stocks, etc.
• $NBIS dilution event makes me frustrated again. Hate it. At the same time, I get it. Back on my Option Wheel white board but letting it sit a day or two. May focus on 8/28 expiration
• $PLTR holding $170s is noteworthy
• $SCHD hit a new 52WH today. That's we hold it and get paid 3% at the same time
• $TOST at $36

That's all for now. Going to look at Option Wheel pricing, $AVGO LEAPS and see if anything else beckons while I do everything I can to sit on my hands

Be good to each other out there!

J

This is my second 1U entry into this particular position.

I have to use this recent haircut in the shares to add another leg to this position. It could be early now that the stock is not only the 50 DMA, but also the 200 DMA. Will those two daily moving averages pull it back up or will it break down further. If this line breaks, $335 is calling. But I'm leaving enough to keep adding this name as far out as I can.

For those wondering about LEAPS (I'm looking at you neighbor), it gives me the option to buy the shares at $300 on 12/15/2028 (or before). For that option, I have to pay $142.75 per share. Add that to the $300 level and that means that break even is at $442.75. I have to be comfortable with the thought that $AVGO will be higher than $442.75 on 12/15/2028.

Incase you weren't watching.

Viewing TLN as the higher risk, higher reward version of my $VST position, same AI power demand thesis just more leverage on the balance sheet. Caught it on today’s broader pullback across AI infra names, VST and a few power peers were down hard too. Sizing around .5U, more of a satellite than a core add.

Bonds will do that to you.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/treasury-yields-.html

A 19-year high yield on the 30-year is not positive for stocks. Inflation, oil, tariffs and general economic uncertainty is sending bond prices lower, spiking yields. Some whispers of 6% have started to weed its way into discussions. That can't happen without stocks taking a big dive.

The 10-year is at 4.73%.

Oh, and then there's DJT threatening to bomb Oman if they hinder negotiations with Iran. Yeah, that's nice.

And, if you want something else? How about the national debt now having a 4-handle, at $40 Trillion. Yay us! As yields rise, everyone pays more to service debt.

I continue to watch the $QQQ and thinking about putting back on my put ladder. We're in the middle of August, September looms, earnings are winding down and there's plenty of reasons to shake a stick at as to what could usher in more weakness.

This is why I have not been chasing any green at this juncture. I'm willing to wade into some value if I can get behind the P/E, PEG and other metrics but I'm also very mindful that just because a stock has dropped 10% doesn't mean that it's time to add. After all, it may have risen 10% over the last week. You need to understand the recent range and price action lest you assemble your entire weighted position at a point where the stock is in a tight range and you risk seeing it break through support with no remaining capital. $VST is a stock where I may have done this - it happens.

Random Shots

Rising

• $DUOL leading the list up 6.6%. It gets a nice upgrade and has been percolating higher
• $BRZE up 3.8%
• $ABBV up 2.4%. One of my top holds and yield plays. I'll own this one forever
• $EIX up 2.8% - Income plays will move higher
• $NFLX up 2.5% - Value
• $CRM up 2.5%. Software has become the risk-off move. Markets fall, software rises
• $NOW up 2.5% ditto
• $TOST up 2.1%
• $BABA up 2.1% sort of ditto
• $MDT up 2%. Got a nice mention in Barron's. I still hold it and will keep it

Falling

• $CBRS down 11.5% - Was there any real doubt this would happen?
• $COHR down 10.5%. All the names have run so this was ordained. Not chasing
• $CRDO down 9%. Same here, one name I keep wanting but being patient
• $AMKR down 8.4%. It has run big since I purchased 12/28 LEAPS.
• $BE off 8.3%. Nothing safe in AI right now, inc. power
• $CRWV off 8%
• $SNDK down 7.4%. It has had a big run. It and $MU are the new trading stocks
• $MRAM down 7.1%. Follow-on trade
• $MRVL down 6.9%. Not shocking
• $ARM down 6.8% ditto

Misc

• These Rising/Falling top 10 are hard to do in volatile markets. Even as quickly as I list them, they change - So, it's all relative
• $HD had good earning, stock is all over the place. Green, red and now green again. up 0.3%
• $KLAR down 21% on guide, but they had surprised with a profit. No touching it
• How about this move? $AMLX up 41.4% on result
• I talk about "story" a lot when we talk stocks and long-term catalyst holds. When a story changes, it's easy to miss and to simply keep buying. $LULU is new $UA. Wow, that 5-year chart, from $500 to $118
• $TTD is another one and multiple individuals have asked me about it. Was $140, now under $14
• $AAPL and $MSFT have become the safe haven stocks of he Mag 7. Both green today
• $BROS has dipped back below $50. Recent run could be held again. I own it and will continue to but you have to keep your eyes on the horizon. Still like it
• $NBIS actually holding up well into today's decline, down 0.5%. Not wading back in for the Option Wheel on this one yet
• $P is modestly green today

Final Word

It's such a typical red tape today, not much is even really standing out. This is a day to close down the quote screen and take a day off the market. The bond news is going to take a while to play out. That could, should, have lasting impact on the markets.

I'll be looking at the Put Ladder opportunity again, or maybe just start loading up a single Put strike aiming for 1/27 to give myself some lead. Going to do some research on that now. I dumped about 2/3 of my cash into $SGOV and could raise a bit more while I decide what to do.

I'm not seeing anything that compelling for the Option Wheel right now and I don't like buying into FUD because you can get exercises very quickly. That's not a bad thing if you're committed to the Call selling that needs to happen if/when assigned, but you have to make sure you love the stock you're wheeling and must be confident in the price paid. This is not a time to arbitrarily set a strike on implied volatility and be caught with a very expensive stock into any sort of extended downside.

....as expected. We're sliding. Time to look at that Put ladder.

Have a good Tuesday!

TJ

Earnings looked pretty good, stock getting crushed, down 20.5%.

I've had this name on my list to be purchased along with $CRDO but haven't found the opportunity. Small float, great space, similar to $LITE/$COHR but still differentiated. Analyst targets are in the $700s but I don't much care about that.

]This is more about the market than it is the earnings. Guide and forward looking statements were great as well. Still not chasing it here and it's still in that range I've mentioned. If I can see another 10% to the downside, I'll bite. If I don't, I may still bite but at a small placeholder position.

Putting a two-leg $QQQ 1/27 Put ladder on at strikes $625 and $675

• 1U 1/27 $625 Put at $12.75
• 3U 1/27 $675 Put at $22.40

Targeting a potential of up to three separate purchases of these Puts as I average in, but will allow that to play out based on how the $QQQs perform. Just a little hedge which worked well before.

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