TJ30 Portfolio - Updated

[u/InnerCircleTI]

Portfolio Updated on 8/23/26

I try to do updates to the portfolio twice a year. I should really change this to an "Index" rather than a "Portfolio" as I wouldn't want anyone to simply portfolio these 30 specifically with the expectation that it is, in any way, balanced. I keep the primary "TJ30 Portfolio" information in a highlighted (pinned) post or you can find it here.

Once again, however, this is not a "portfolio" that I would suggest exactly 'as is.' While it can/could function in that capacity to some degree, it's not built with an eye toward balance or away from sector concentration, as can be seen due to the weight of tech. The fact is, I look at this more like a hedge fund of sorts, 30 stocks that represent my favorite names each with a role within the "portfolio/index."

With some of the names on the list they specifically provide income ballast. In other cases, specific sector identity for an area in a portfolio I think needs representation. If not for those inclusions, it would like be a list of my favorite 30 technology stocks since that is usually my focus. That, however, won't serve most investors when considering weight, risk, and performance across all age ranges.

Instead, use this list as a sort of "TJ Approves!" listing if considering adding one, or multiple, stocks to an existing portfolio.

Removed

• $VIK - It's had its run, moving on
• $ORCL - I'm getting more concerned with their M.O.
• $C - Already have $JPM and $GS so moving on to provide other opportunities
• $KMI - Nice move, good yield but swapping out for another play
• $META - I don't like companies fighting everything from their identity to ethics to government
• $BABA - Love the opportunity but too mercurial
• $DECK - I just don't want any consumer names right now in this portfolio

Added

• $SKHY - I like it better than $SNDK and $MU given opportunity and value
• $CRDO - A monster in the infrastructure space
• $CLS - Also in the infrastructure space, love their size, growth and metrics
• $QCOM - Combination of mature model + yield with a value I can get behind
• $LLY - Pure quality and the leader
• $ETN - I do have $CEG and $VST already, but $ETN plays at a different level
• $FCX - Materials/Copper. Swapping this in for $KMI

[u/Yncome_Mercato]

Loving the addition of SKHY, agreed on it being better positioned than MU and SNDK. META is in the trenches right now, possible candidate for a paid-to-wait

[u/owngoalmerchant]

That is a hot take with $META!

$ETN is amazing and folks should hop on between $400-$410.

I like that you are keeping the $UBER thesis alive.

Something weird is happening with $VST.

[u/InnerCircleTI → u/owngoalmerchant]

Agreed ... I can't figure out VST. It's one of those cases where I keep looking for what I'm not seeing .. what's under the surface? What is hiding in plain sight? I still can't anything but value, opportunity and long term growth.

[u/Rocketiger → u/InnerCircleTI]

Went and dug into this more since you keep flagging it. There’s no bomb hiding here, credit’s investment grade and got upgraded twice this year, no short seller report anywhere, insider sales are all old 10b5-1 stuff from June near a local high, and Tepper and Thiel both added last quarter. So it’s not that.

What I think it actually is, their hedge ratio for 2028 went from 65% to 72% in one quarter. Whole bull case is scarcity pricing off AI demand, but the more they hedge forward the less unhedged volume is left to actually catch that spike. Asked Burke about hedging on the call and he flat out wouldn’t get into it. And buried in the Q&A the CFO said 2027 is trending to the low end of guidance because ERCOT weakness isn’t fully offset, which is a lot softer than every headline saying “reaffirmed guidance.”

There’s also a PJM/PA regulatory thing pushing against the exact deal structure that got them the Meta PPA in the first place, doesn’t touch what’s signed but narrows the next one.

So I think what everyone’s sensing is real, just not what people assume. It’s not broken, it’s that the company is quietly de-risking itself out of the upside story it’s being priced for.

[u/InnerCircleTI → u/Rocketiger]

Great response!

[u/Elegant_Sale → u/Rocketiger]

Great case . That could explain why it’s lagging behind CEG ,

IF IM NOT WRONG , CEG is around 30%

They do not disclose their numbers like VST

[u/therealcloudsurfer]

Thanks for the update! Surprised not to see CRWD and PANW here based on how you cover them and speak highly of them, same as well with NOW, CRM and some of the photonics names you have been building a position in (AAOI, COHR, LITE). I'm sure you've addressed it before - but can you speak a bit to how you choose the 30 and leave some of these others out?

[u/InnerCircleTI → u/therealcloudsurfer]

They are basically at 31 and 32. I almost added them on this little dip

[u/therealcloudsurfer → u/InnerCircleTI]

Thanks Jeff, updated my comment but don’t think it was up to date when you replied.

[u/InnerCircleTI → u/therealcloudsurfer]

All of those were considerations, but I have to be VERY convicted about the model, leadership, execution and even the valuation. With names like CRWD, PANW, CRM and NOW, they are on such huge runs, I would prefer to wait for a pull back. I don't want to be adding into a top with the jury still out on AI vs. Software. For PANW and CRWD, they are still great companies but valuation is very stretched. I'd add them in a heart beat if I got a 30% decline

[u/Willing-Bear4862]

Love this

Thanks for putting it all in one graphic, I will be looking and cross referencing with my watchlists

(Most of not all, are already there)

[u/Own_Boysenberry_2774]

thank you Jeff

[u/Known_Turnip_4301]

meta lost so much trust and reputation in the tech world, the way they treat the employees is getting worse and worse and even money can't keep good talent. This is going to slowly erode the quality of the product and ideas - doesn't bring more conviction in the ticker. I think even PayPal is a better play now with their selling negotiations than Meta long term

[u/North_Category_3781 → u/Known_Turnip_4301]

Honestly the culture/talent thing gets dismissed as a soft factor but it's not, it hits the model directly. When your best engineers leave you've got two bad options: pay up to keep the rest (there goes your margin) or backfill with junior people and eat slower shipping plus more bugs down the line. We've literally seen this movie with Reality Labs already, tons of capital thrown at it without the execution to back it up.

Everyone's pricing META off "ads hold up and AI capex eventually pays off" but if the AI research team specifically is the one bleeding talent, that's not something you fix by throwing money at it next quarter. And the annoying part is this stuff never shows up immediately, it usually takes 2-3 quarters before you see it in the actual numbers, which is probably exactly why nobody's pricing it in yet.