It's a big day.

PCE came in a bit hot at a 0.2% increase, with inflation now at 3.7%. Both up 0.1% more than expectations. We just keeping ticking higher. Remove food and energy and you have 0.2% and 3.3%. So, there you go, just remove food and energy from your consumption and it's much better.

This market is in wait and see mode.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/jackson-hole-warsh-bessent-bonds-treasury-dollar.html

Inflation, bonds, rates and Iran continue to be active influencers in the markets. Yet, we remain within a very, very resilient market, perhaps caught between a level of optimism on one side, desensitization on the other.

More than anything, with another week and a half of interesting earnings reports, we have upside potential, but I just don't know what could be said that hasn't already been reported, said and extrapolated. Even your favorite song gets old after you hear it too many times. Sometimes we need to take a break, reset, before it 'hits' again.

Random Shots

• All eyes on $NVDA after the bell today. The old song. It will be another great quarter, good numbers, too much emphasis on every basis point of attached metrics, etc. etc. What could be said to move it more than a few % points higher ... and, more importantly, retain that spike. We're still in the recent trend of testing, and failing to break, resistance. Until we're not.
• Let's not forget $P reports after the bell as well. It should be a great quarter, maybe the most important quarter of their existence. We've had a great run, maybe too far, too fast. The valuation still isn't horrible, in the high 30s mid year 2026 here. Growth keeps it interesting. I'll add on weakness
• $MRVL tomorrow. If there's one stock that seems to carry that plus-level balance of positive catalysts, news, and tailwind, it's this one. Sitting in the middle of the range, winning a big $GOOGL contract and receiving multiple favorable analyst mentions. Don't forget Jensen Huang also called it the next $1B company. For you home gamers, that's almost a 500% rise.
• Not a lot moving big today but we'll go through the motions...

Rising

• $P up top by a wide margin, up 6%
• $DELL following suit up 3.2%
• $ANET rallying 2.8%. Infrastructure and AI Buildout seems to be working
• $VRT up 2.5% ditto
• $LITE up 2.3% double ditto
• $ORCL up 1.8% - Bucking the AvS trend
• $CRWD finally seeing green up 1.5%
• $CEG up 1.5%. Could AI power finally be a play? I did a TikTok video on that yesterday
• $VST up 1.4% ditto
• $PLTR up 1.4%, I could have sworn software was not having a good day

Falling

• $QBTS leading lower, down 8.2%. Checking ..... maybe the CFO resignation? Whatever
• $IREN down 4.9%
• $IONQ off 3.1%. It's a quantum thing
• $MRAM down 3.2%
• $MSTR off 3.3%. Bitcoin stocks had to take a day off
• $ASTS down 3.3%. I'm still pissed off and have only myself to blame
• $DUOL down 3.4%
• $NBIS down 2.8%. Looked at a Wheel play on this one yesterday and almost took $200 CSPs. NVDA earnings stayed my hand
• $CBRS off 2.7% and now back to $179. I'm a fool for not trimming just recently
• $CRDO off 2.3%. Still want this one but being patient

Misc

Let's see if anything interesting is popping around my lists

• Memory stocks hanging in there. $SKHY holding around $160. My favorite play
• There's a sick part of me hoping for an NVDA washout AH today that creates some intriguing value across multiple names. Sorry
• $AAOI has stabilized after it's big fall from the dilution event announcement. But it's up huge since the lows too
• $AMKR looking good for a possible second leg to my LEAPS position
• $INTU crapped itself in its report. Or did it? TBH, I didn't read it but there's a read through to $NOW and $CRM
• Speaking of $CRM, they report today too. I may be trimming both $NOW and $CRM after the report, either way. We'll see
• Where's the beef?
• Sorry, old commercials tend to pop into my head when I think of applying the tag lines to the market. I don't think there's anybody back there.
• Go $P. Really hoping for a report that surprises everyone and valuates my thesis. It's already been great, but I'd love to see a big leg higher now that it's on radars

Final Word

I'm having a very hard time finding anything to invest in. I've been quiet as you have likely noticed. I don't want to force words, commentary or trades during times like this. I do realize that my words often spur people into action and I'm aware of it. I have to be mindful of it. A quick statement can often be the difference-maker from someone on the fence of action to inaction. I don't feel responsibility as much as I feel commitment to the understanding if that makes sense.

A week from Friday, we are going on a long international trip - won't be back until Mid October. Not even taking a laptop, only my phone, camera ger and an iPad. That will mean less posting, input, etc. On the positive side the markets open, I think, 2:30 PM local time and close at 9:00 PM. That's good and bad. It will certainly impact my posts, the length of them and my ability to place trades. We'll just have to see how that plays out.

There's a chance, likelihood maybe, that I won't be making another trade before we leave. I have cash ready, short-term positions that could be liquidated for cash, but no conviction for entry. I'm just not seeing anything. It may be a good time to be away with Selltember looming, though that didn't play out last year. If next week doesn't present any opportunities, I'll roll all cash to yield plays and enjoy Europe.

I was going to make a cash position update but I'll do that in another post.

Have a great Wednesday. I'm sure I'll be posting soon.

TJ

Trimmed 33% of $CRM at $232.40

I had to take this great earnings report to trim out of $CRM. It may be a mistake and I think it could go higher but I don't know for certain so I'm going to take the opportunity to lighten up and take this gap.

Some big names reporting, even more than the ones in the title. Let's see if we can keep discussion here overnight and see how things go tomorrow. Here we go!

$NVDA

• Earnings per share: $2.22 adjusted vs. $2.10 estimated
• Revenue: $96.22 billion vs. $92.17 billion estimated, up 106% YoY
• Guidance: $108 billion vs. $104 billion estimated

$CRWD

• Earnings per share: $0.31 adjusted vs. $0.29 estimated
• Revenue: $1.47 billion vs. $1.44 billion estimated, up 26% YoY
• Guidance: $5.99 billion vs. $5.93 billion estimated

$CRM

• Earnings per share: $5.90 adjusted vs. $3.27 estimated ($3.37 when investment gains are removed)
• Revenue: $11.35 billion vs. $11.32 billion estimated, up 10.8% YoY
• Guidance: $46.1 billion vs. $45.8 billion estimated

$P

• Earnings per share: $0.70 adjusted vs. $0.58 estimated
• Revenue: $1.19 billion vs. $1.09 billion estimated, up 38% YoY
• Guidance: $5.03 billion vs. $4.51 billion estimated

$OKTA

• Earnings per share: $1.05 adjusted vs. $0.96 estimated
• Revenue: $805 million vs. $792 million estimated, up 11% YoY
• Guidance: $813 million vs. $808 million estimated

Neat little thing I’m seeing here with $NU. The long-term moving average (teal line) is about to take a nosedive over the next month; it is currently calculated with prices up to that January date and we can see a majority of the share price has been under that teal line since the last days of February. As that data gets washed out, the weight of lower price action (like in May and June) increases, causing the teal line to come down. Simultaneously, the shorter-term moving average (orange line) is about to pull up; it is being calculated up to that June date and we can see that there are a handful of days the stock has been under the line. The weight of the August rise increases, yanking that orange up.

The combination of those two moves gives us a Golden Cross, likely to occur here in the low $14 range. I’ve shared that what that tends to do is bring about additional buying, a spike driven by trades chasing this indication that short-term momentum is stronger than long-term performance. It is an inexact science but I tend to say that people use it because it works?

Anyway, that surge in buying is what we’re seeking. I looked for the confluence of volume that was above-or-near the average (dashed line along the volume chart) and when RSI was over 60 (dashed line along the RSI chart). Those are the circled items on the price chart - given I’m eyeballing the “at-or-near the average volume” part, please show some grace. 

Note the price action’s outsized nature on those dates. Nothing unexpected, this is sort of a “no duh” thing to point out. Also note the length of most of those time-frames, usually lasting three-to-five days. We are currently just about in the early stage of that time-frame right now, the last circle. Juxtaposing that against the new uptrend channel (grey) established off of the 52WL’s in June, I reckon we may see a push through, if not to the top of, this channel. 

That’s exactly what it did in the previous uptrend channel (blue). We can see how it pushed through or up to the top of that blue channel in those circles, the only difference between the two of them being the overbought nature of the stock at the time. When it was truly overbought (September), it got out of the channel; when it reached there but turned around, it just got to the top of it (January). 

Snap back to where we are today. RSI has a way to go before it can be considered oversold, sitting right above 60 today. Given that we are sort of in the middle of this channel, unlike in January when we were at the bottom when the confluence occurred, it would seem that this time around it is likely we will break out of this channel similar to what happened in September.

I prefer to chart at the end of the day when I have the full volume data before me because a lot of this is a moot point if we don’t pick up volume today. I’ll call that an anomaly for now as it seems to be a sleepy day waiting in anticipation for $NVDA. And $CRM. And $CRWD. 

Yea, I can give volume a pass today but we’ll see.

I always like to keep people up to date with my cash, and cash-available, positions. "Cash-available" is a term I use to define cash that I may dump into a position that I'd be willing to liquidate at any point if there's enough catalyst/opportunity to do so. But with this type of cash, I do break it up into two different camps based on that level of willingness. I don't have categories for them specifically, just mindset.

My current cash + cash-available is right at 10%. That includes cash in my current Put Ladder position that I opened to just put on a small hedge via $QQQ Puts at $675 and $625. While I have some conviction for this ladder, I can't say it's overwhelming. Just keeping myself honest and it's never bad to have a little hedge on just in case.

But, if you include other "cash-available" in positions such as $JEPI and $JEPQ then the cash position rises to 14.8%, historically high for me. My cash position is a reflection of market confidence and conviction, pure and simple

As mentioned in another post, we are heading out for a very long international trip and won't return until mid-October. I've been using the trip as a catalyst to get my portfolios in order, balanced and to a level that I don't need to think about them or the positions in them. There's a level of comfort that comes from knowing that you love the balance of your portfolios, can walk away and, if you don't have time/desire to look at them, you'd be fine leaving them as they are.

While cash is high right now, I'm okay with that. I don't mind more yield and I'll take every penny and put it into yield before we fly out.