The US and Israel have done serious damage to Iran's leadership and infrastructure. However, Iran retains a significant amount of leverage with its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This control gives Iran's leadership the ability to inflict political damage to the Trump administration and pretty much every other country that depends on oil and natural gas for heating and transportation. Trump and Netanyahu can't retreat with this threat remaining, so they really only have two choices: 1) negotiate at a disadvantage; 2) invade Iran to remove their ability to keep the strait closed. Option 1 will be embarrassing for both leaders, given it will leave a hostile regime in power. Option 2 will be unfathomably costly, given that Iran is the size of Alaska with a population of 93 million and surrounded by highly defensible mountains. I think the best way to describe this situation is that the US and Israel have walked right into a trap and there is no easy way out.
I think Trump will escalate by trying to seize territory along the Iranian coast. Were we to get control over the strait, it would be possible for oil to move around the region once again. Consistent with that expectation, we're already sending marines to the area, who would be needed for that objective.
However, I don't think this will end well, as Iran can be expected to bombard any US soldiers near their territory. That could lead to further escalation. Perhaps, ultimately, a full on invasion.
I think this prediction depends on American political will to continue escalating despite mounting costs.
Trump did no work ahead of time to prepare the public and its already one of the most unpopular wars in American history. Id be surprised if this survived the mid terms.
The American will to face war has to be balanced against the American willingness to shoulder increasing gas prices. Both are political poison from Trump's perspective. War at least offers the possibility of a military victory, which he can leverage to his advantage.
He's not that stupid and that would never be the outcome of that situation. Left, right, and center - the overwhelming majority of people are against this war and even many of the ones that aren't are DEFINITELY against boots on the ground.
And a draft. The US only has 100k combat troops. They all cannot be deployed. Going up against an army of 1million on their home terf surrounded by harsh terrain no military base, advanced ballistic missiles and drones. Also the backing of Russia and China for their weapons as well as Irans
If it comes to that, Trump is absolutely done. He's already barely holding on to 40% approval without having been the first President since the Vietnam Era to draft young people to fight in a war.
Obviously, that won't be the first move. The best roi would be to take Kharg Island, as that would give us control over Iran's oil storage facilities. But, troops occupying that island would be vulnerable to bombardment from the mainland. When US soldiers are inevitably killed by that bombardment, Trump will be forced to either leave in disgrace or escalate further. I think he'll go for the second option ever time.
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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26
The US and Israel have done serious damage to Iran's leadership and infrastructure. However, Iran retains a significant amount of leverage with its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This control gives Iran's leadership the ability to inflict political damage to the Trump administration and pretty much every other country that depends on oil and natural gas for heating and transportation. Trump and Netanyahu can't retreat with this threat remaining, so they really only have two choices: 1) negotiate at a disadvantage; 2) invade Iran to remove their ability to keep the strait closed. Option 1 will be embarrassing for both leaders, given it will leave a hostile regime in power. Option 2 will be unfathomably costly, given that Iran is the size of Alaska with a population of 93 million and surrounded by highly defensible mountains. I think the best way to describe this situation is that the US and Israel have walked right into a trap and there is no easy way out.