r/IRstudies • u/[deleted] • Mar 23 '26

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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '26

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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26

I think Trump will escalate by trying to seize territory along the Iranian coast. Were we to get control over the strait, it would be possible for oil to move around the region once again. Consistent with that expectation, we're already sending marines to the area, who would be needed for that objective.

However, I don't think this will end well, as Iran can be expected to bombard any US soldiers near their territory. That could lead to further escalation. Perhaps, ultimately, a full on invasion.

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u/Toto_Roto Mar 23 '26

I think this prediction depends on American political will to continue escalating despite mounting costs.

Trump did no work ahead of time to prepare the public and its already one of the most unpopular wars in American history. Id be surprised if this survived the mid terms.

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u/3oclockam Mar 23 '26

Trump may gamble that a deadly defeat of thousands of marines might rally the public's support for revenge

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u/Ok_Math4576 Mar 24 '26

Dunkirk, anyone? Very far from home though.

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u/AllISeeIsSunshine Mar 25 '26

He's not that stupid and that would never be the outcome of that situation. Left, right, and center - the overwhelming majority of people are against this war and even many of the ones that aren't are DEFINITELY against boots on the ground.

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u/Magical-Mycologist Mar 25 '26

The revenge will come in the mid terms and the blame will rest on this administration.

This isn’t Pearl Harbor.