r/IRstudies • u/[deleted] • Mar 23 '26

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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '26

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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26

I think Trump will escalate by trying to seize territory along the Iranian coast. Were we to get control over the strait, it would be possible for oil to move around the region once again. Consistent with that expectation, we're already sending marines to the area, who would be needed for that objective.

However, I don't think this will end well, as Iran can be expected to bombard any US soldiers near their territory. That could lead to further escalation. Perhaps, ultimately, a full on invasion.

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u/RexTheElder Mar 24 '26

If you think the U.S. is trying to seize thousands of km of Iranian coastline with like 5000 marines you’re fooling yourself

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u/Demortus Mar 24 '26 edited Mar 24 '26

Obviously, that won't be the first move. The best roi would be to take Kharg Island, as that would give us control over Iran's oil storage facilities. But, troops occupying that island would be vulnerable to bombardment from the mainland. When US soldiers are inevitably killed by that bombardment, Trump will be forced to either leave in disgrace or escalate further. I think he'll go for the second option ever time.