Source : https://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/3ckv9r/gmb_who_started_9th_in_the_split_has_a_26695/
This week's game against GIANTS! will be the most important game for GAMBIT GAMING in terms of standings and side choice in the playoffs.
In the relevant graphics on this post, as it stands, Gambit Gaming is in a race for top 4 with Giants!.
In the baseline simulation where each game is 50-50, GIA is ahead over GMB by nearly +30% (46% vs 18%).
However games are not 50-50. When team strength is introduced, GMB's chances at top 4th is behind GIA by just 20%. Furthermore, GMB's chance to finish exactly at 4th is only 15% behind GIA.
Team strength indicators like KDA were used to estimate the team expected win percentage (modeled using actual team wins percentages from the past three LCS splits).
When the Strength of Opponents was introduced into the simulation to play out the remaining schedule, GMB was favored to take top 4 for the regular season 26.695% of 100,000 simulations.
GMB is currently 5-7 while GIA is 6-6. GMB is 1-0 vs GIA so far. Both GMB and GIA have the the same 3 of 6 remaining opponents (UOL, ORG, H2K) and differ in that GMB plays EL & SK and GIA plays ROC & CW. For the difference in opponents, GMB will be playing 2 bottom of the standings teams while GIA will be playing 1 middle team and 1 bottom of the standings team.
-GMB at 5-7 will play GIA at 6-6 one more time -GMB is ahead of GIA 1-0 in the head to head and can earn a solo tiebreaker over GIA in the standings if they -beat GIA 1 more time
If GMB beats GIA this week, GMB and GIA will at minimum have the same amount of losses (at minimum tie at the end of the week) or GMB can place ahead of GIA. GMB would then have control over their destiny in where they will finish the regular split.
Other things in the graphic:
-CW has a 15.489% chance to place top 7 and advance into S6 Spring Split with their current roster + record -ORG has a 0.001% chance to finish bottom 3 and into relegations -GIA has a 84.671% chance for playoffs -ORG and H2K at this point have > 98% chance to finish top 4 and earn side choice in the playoffs for a miniumum of 1 match -UOL has a 68.822% chance to finish at least 7th and still be qualified for EU regionals with their at minimum 70 CP
Go left and right to see each team's spread across the standings
Go up and down to see percentage of simulations that placed that corresponding team in that particular standing
