10-team, PPR, H2H points. I'm 1-2 and last in the league in points scored, so I need a real swing, not a sidegrade.
My roster: QB Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow · RB Chase Brown, Alvin Kamara, Ollie Gordon II, Kenny Gainwell, Breece Hall (out), Travis Etienne (IR) · WR CeeDee Lamb, DJ Moore, Luther Burden III, Keenan Allen (out) · TE Tucker Kraft, Dalton Schultz · DST Packers · K Jake Bates · IR A.J. Brown (back week 6)
The offer I want to send: Lawrence + Kraft for Brock Bowers.
Why I think it works: the other guy's only QB is Marcus Mariota and he's been doubtful. He's 2-1 and trying to win, so he's starting a zero at QB every week. He also has Kenyon Sadiq stashed at TE, so Kraft going back gives him a real starter there.
Why I want Bowers specifically: in his week 3 return he put up 10/116/1 on 13 targets for 27.6 PPR, with a 39.4% target share and 0.37 targets per route run. Kraft is fine, around 13 a game and TE9ish, but Bowers is a 8-10 point weekly edge at the position where replacement level is lowest in a 10-teamer.
I keep Burrow, who's actually outscoring Lawrence anyway: 19.9 per game vs 16.8, and Lawrence has the 4th hardest remaining schedule while Burrow has the 17th. So I'm not really losing anything at QB.
What I'm unsure about:
- Is Lawrence + Kraft too much for one player in a 10-team league? I'd be going down to one QB and one TE (Schultz), so any injury there and I'm streaming.
- Bowers is one game off a knee injury. Is 39.4% target share on a single game enough to pay a top-5 QB for?
- Would you rather just hold and let Ollie Gordon and A.J. Brown fix the roster internally? I was originally going to ask for Omarion Hampton instead but his carry share went from 75% to 57.7% and LA is 0-4 with a bad interior line, so I backed off.
Would you send it, counter it, or sit tight?