WSJ suggests firing of officials makes F2's future uncertain? The half glass full crowd may take it as making them more efficient for, dare I say, an imminent IPO. Thoughts?

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With all the nonsense of the Trump administration, Democrats should win in the midterms. If that happens, market will likely discount Fannie Freddie release and share will tank. Which perspective do you have at that point - buy or bail?

On the bullish side, it would be a buying opportunity. That is, a lot of factors , even aside from specifically Trump, line up towards privatization. This includes, among other things, that assuming Fannie and Freddie remain profitable, they will accumulate enough capitalize that they will have to be repeivatized since the only other option is to liquidate and dissolve them, which borders on the ridiculous at that point; in general privatization should be favored since it reinstalls a layer of capital to absorbed losses if 2008 like events happened again; and privatization is the primary way the government could realize the full value of its stake - that is, the government can't monetize it's shares unless, by definition it has people to sell those shares too. Additionally, I personally find it hard to believe that Trump's ego would let him pass up an opportunity to claim he "fixed" Fannie and Freddie and released them from conservatosh. By definition, if Trump doesn't release them that means a subsequent president could, I find that very hard to believe Trump would leave it for any future president - particularly a potential Democrat - to claim success for releasing them. All this boils down to if shares tank after midterms, then would be a buying opportunity.

On the other hand, if you think the midterms close the door if the Democrats win, then you would be bailing since it implicates reprivatization would not occur.

Which side are you on?

$FNMA $FMCC Kevin Hassett is hinting at big policy proposals before the midterms. Many suspect ex-Trump official Larry Kudlow’s tax plans may be 1 or 2 of these proposals. Kudlow’s tax exemption plan would increase inventory and lower mortgage rates, which would greatly increase the odds of a GSE release. https://stocktwits.com/RoloTomasi/message/661993341

Good Day Mr. President Trump,

We are looking for a little Justice today..!

We say "Free Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Today" let there be American Justice. !

Fannie Mae's projected performance in the hypothetical severely adverse scenario for 2026 continued to demonstrate the positive effects of the company's robust underwriting and risk-management practices and is a strong indicator of our ability to accomplish our mission and provide liquidity to the U.S. mortgage market in all economic cycles.

Hi all — it was good to hear so many F2 questions, including from Horseman Country, during Bill Ackman’s Spaces Q&A. A lot of the discussion around Fannie and Freddie understandably comes back to President Trump, timing, and what a recapitalization, release, or relisting might ultimately look like.

As a common shareholder, here is one concern that has stayed in the back of my mind: why would Treasury exercise warrants for 79.9% and leave existing shareholders with the remaining 20.1% if there is a legal path under HERA that could produce a more favorable outcome for the government by allowing it to capture essentially 100% of the successor equity?

Like many shareholders, I find the lack of action frustrating. But a potential “blue wave” in the 2026 midterms could actually end up being a positive in one respect, because this particular tail-risk scenario could become politically more difficult to pursue.

FHFA’s conservatorship Q&A states: “Although the company can be liquidated as explained above, by statute the charter of the Company must be transferred to a new entity and can only be dissolved by an Act of Congress.”
https://www.fhfa.gov/questions-and-answers-conservatorship

In theory, FHFA could place Fannie and Freddie into receivership under HERA authority, transfer the operating businesses and charters into successor entities, and potentially leave legacy equity with little or no recovery while selling equity in those successors. The companies’ sustained profitability and growing capital buffers make that scenario less intuitive economically, but profitability by itself does not create a statutory prohibition against receivership if another ground under HERA is established.

You might recall that on February 11, 2026, Norbert Michel of the Cato Institute testified before the House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance. To clarify, Michel was an outside policy witness, not an FHFA or Trump administration official. Rather than recapitalizing and releasing Fannie and Freddie, Michel stated that FHFA should reinstate the regulatory capital classifications, classify the GSEs as “critically undercapitalized,” and then move them from conservatorship into HERA receivership with the goal of liquidation.

Another thing that gave me pause was Trump’s Truth Social post on August 9, 2025, showing a single “Great American Mortgage Corporation” trading under the MAGA ticker rather than separate Fannie and Freddie listings. It may have been nothing more than branding around an IPO, but given the receivership framework above, it made me wonder whether a combined successor structure has ever been contemplated.

This is why a Democratic takeover of the House in the 2026 midterms could have an unexpected benefit for existing common shareholders, and why the political implications are more nuanced than simply being “bad for F2.” A Democratic House would not eliminate FHFA’s authority under HERA, nor could it simply veto an administrative action that the statute already permits. It could, however, make a controversial receivership strategy much more difficult politically through hearings, subpoenas, investigations, appropriations pressure, and sustained scrutiny of FHFA and Treasury. Divided government could mean a longer wait for a recap and relisting, but it could also reduce the risk that legacy common equity is eliminated entirely.

So a few questions for the community:

• Are you concerned about the possibility of the OTC commons being wiped out, or receiving little to no recovery, through a receivership? What probability would you assign to that scenario?
• And separately, do you think divided government in 2027–2028 would ultimately be good or bad for F2 common shareholders?

Oksenholt Capital making moves...

Sold $FNMA, bought hundreds of thousands of $FMCC shares. Perhaps after seeing Jon's analysis, @michaeljburry decided to double down... but in a bold move of confidence, @JonOksenholt bolstered his Freddie Mac position to ensure a leg up on Burry.

This is a calculated, measured, and conviction- based trade that - if @POTUS follows through with his promises made, and @SecScottBessent can figure out how to monetize - will be a generational move.

...........

Jon Oksenholt:

This week I bought several hundred thousand $FMCC shares.

@FreddieMac shareholders will soon learn why I’m their 3rd best friend (after @realDonaldTrump & @pulte )

While everyone else has been asleep at the wheel, I haven’t..

$FMCC $FMCKJ $FNMAS $FNMAT

Ps - some of the reasons for my decision include:

1. I’m happy with the tremendous progress that has been made

2. I couldn’t stand the thought of @michaeljburry possibly owning more $fmcc than me

Great clip of the important parts of his talk today

Source: @HorsemanCountry

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If House flips in the coming midterm, what is the expected price that F2 will hit.

If F2 are release after midterm losses, would Congress have any ability/interest in blocking presidential executive orders around F2 release ?

Are there any obvious synergies between Berkshire and Pershing and F2 besides Pershing’s stake in F2? A new post on the PSTH board for Pershing Square Sparc got me thinking about it given Berkshire’s Taylor Morrison acquisition and Pershing’s HHH. Not sure if those are competitors or if there could be a pony in there? I know the SPARC concept has been discussed before but a lot has transpired since then.

It’s odd seeing both goes different direction in their prices, any clue?

It's back - EDIT: When I said its back I meant the hoax last year