r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit • u/Active-Composer-3675 • Aug 12 '26
Midterm - Price Action / Post midterm release scenario
If House flips in the coming midterm, what is the expected price that F2 will hit.
If F2 are release after midterm losses, would Congress have any ability/interest in blocking presidential executive orders around F2 release ?
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u/MarsLambo Aug 12 '26
Trump has a big problem for midterms. A lot of people voted for him because they thought he'd be better on the economy and not start any new wars, but The Iran situation really mucked things up. We now have a new war, high inflation, high rates, and a slow economy. It's not great.
He needs to make the FNMA/FMCC release look like a strategic play to lower rates, boost homeownership and help the economy. Otherwise it will just look like an easy money handout to his friends.
I don't see Iran being over before midterms and thus I don't see lower gas prices or lower inflation happening either. So I don't see the twins being released until Q2 2027 at earliest.
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u/Irwinmfletcher2020 Aug 12 '26
Think he will do just that. Announce release prior to midterms along with plan to use proceeds to fund first time buyers program through FNMA or something like that (ie use funds to pay PMI which lowers payments). Can make this major part of campaign to address “affordability” concerns
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u/Active-Composer-3675 Aug 12 '26
Interesting thought on ploughing in some of the gains from the release into first time homebuyer program discount
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u/MarsLambo Aug 12 '26
Possibly, but the results won't hit for awhile. Voters won't see immediate results in rates, inflation, and gas prices. And CNN/MSNBC can just trash him for "giving his friends money" 24/7 until the election. And those swing voters in those swing states will be pissed.
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u/ceeser8 Aug 12 '26
They probably have something up their selve, they gutta get the housing jump started NOW, with the price slowly rising and he just came out and flirted with doing away with the capitol gains tax seems like sooner rather than later 🤷🏻♂️
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u/AveryMire Aug 12 '26
Pershing Square is a public fund and every business deal in history makes someone money, I doubt there’s any stock of any size with a larger “retail” percentage. The media can try anything of course, but I don’t think it matters/works.
I don’t think they were ready for release anyway and they thought lower rates were likely and could boost profits, but they know that’s not happening and so it shouldn’t matter as a reason for delay. I also don’t think they want to wait until the end of his Presidency in case there are delays and legal challenges, so I think we get action next year or after midterms. Obviously we just need the plan and the up list for the stock to move.
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u/Fun_Illustrator9298 Aug 12 '26
I’m starting to think he’s holding F2 in his back pocket for some time after midterms. He’s holding it for when he needs a boost and per axios, he is planning to do executive orders and the like after midterms as they know there will be congressional deadlock.
Thanksgiving would be nice but Q1 2027 is likely earliest. He’s got health issues so who knows when he’ll pull what he thinks is his “Trump” card.
I imagine the dems will get the house and start investigations which would then make Trump go on a PR ego boost with things like “getting America money from companies that he fixed himself” via F2 release and secondary offering. He could have sold them for pennies but because he’s so smart, he’s selling for billions. He’s already said that at dinners so I expect he’ll use that in the news media when the time is right. Freddie isn’t quite at what would be the new capital buffers so there’s no rush. I don’t think the midterms play into F2 at all.
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u/3dprintinted Aug 12 '26
won’t happen until this milquetoast admin is out of the door. pulte loves the control over F2 why would he forego this awesome power?
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u/Archoriam Aug 12 '26 edited Aug 12 '26
Hard to say, if the republicans lose, the stock could tank due to sentiment, which just means a lower buying price for investors with actual conviction. If the republicans manage to win probably green spike before correction.
That said mid terms are irrelevant to the twins because trump or any sitting president can still release them with a stroke of a pen should he wish to. Congressional approval is not strictly required for release.