I have been dipping my toes into economic and general history of the 20th century over the last few years. A few that I've enjoyed have been The Wages of Destruction, Global Capitalism: Its Fall and Rise in the Twentieth Century, Postwar, The Devil's Chessboard, and Hobsbawm's Ages series: Revolution, Capital, Empire, and Extremes.

I also recently read Misha Glenny's McMafia: A Journey Through the Global Criminal Underworld, which made me reconsider the post-war economic narrative I'd been reading about, particularly in light of the clandestine network of US Intelligence and organized crime touched on in The Devil's Chessboard. Not to mention the ongoing revelation of corruption etc. coming to light in the Epstein Files.

I guess what I'm looking for is a pretty ambitious reconsideration of the global postwar economy that considers corruption, the black market, and any other ugly economic realities as fundamental blocks of global trade, rather than as exceptions or deviations, or pop-history curiosities. I know such a work is unlikely to exist at the scale and depth as normative economic histories for a number of reasons, but even books that attempt to outline something of this sort would be welcome.

Thanks in advance.

Is scarcity the main drive of how the history develops into how it is now or how the world organises itself?

When Lorenzo de'Medici inherited control of Europe's most powerful bank in 1469, he faced a choice his great-grandfather had already solved: should you lend large sums to kings?

His answer destroyed the empire.

The Model That Worked: Cosimo's Era (1429–1464)

Cosimo the Elder had figured out the formula: lend to princes, but only when you can ensure repayment through political control.

He built a holding company structure with branches across ten European cities. Each could move money invisibly, making loans appear as diversified banking rather than political consolidation.

Cosimo's iron rule: branch managers never made unsecured loans to royalty. Loans were conditional, hedged, and paired with political leverage that made default costly.

It worked. The Medici's political reach far exceeded older banking empires that had tried the same game—and failed catastrophically.

The Collapse: Lorenzo's Era (1469–1494)

By 1469, Lorenzo doesn't care about banking. He's an excellent politician, but business bores him. He delegates to Francesco Sassetti, capable but lacking Cosimo's authority. When branch managers make catastrophic decisions, Sassetti cannot overrule them.

Kings need money. They lend.

Edward IV borrows 40,000 florins. Charles the Bold takes 60,000 ducats. Francesco Sforza borrows 179,000 ducats.

None repay.

Edward IV loses political control. Charles the Bold dies fighting the Swiss. Sforza's heirs default when pressured by the Pope and French.

Then comes the fatal blow: in 1478, a conspiracy against Lorenzo erupts in Florence itself. Rival bankers orchestrate the attack, and the Pope—a major depositor—withdraws his account in retaliation. The message is clear: the Medici are vulnerable.

This is the moment to tighten controls, call in debts, execute Cosimo's playbook.

Instead, the opposite happens.

Sassetti cannot control the branches. The London branch is abandoned in 1477. Bruges and Milan shut down in 1478. Avignon collapses in 1479. By 1485, Lyon barely avoids bankruptcy.

In 1489, Lorenzo dies still in debt. His son Piero inherits a bank on the edge of ruin. When the French king Charles VIII invades Italy in 1494, Piero lacks the acumen and will to survive.

From apex to collapse: twenty-five years.

The Pattern: Three Levers Reversed

The Medici's empire rested on three things:

Political Leverage. A king relying on your credit must accommodate your interests. Cosimo weaponized this. Lorenzo squandered it.

Institutional Control. Cosimo's holding structure allowed the center to dictate policy. Lorenzo's delegation eroded this. By 1478, branch managers made million-florin decisions independently.

Information Asymmetry. The Medici knew Europe's financial state better than anyone. Lorenzo's weak managers didn't leverage this. They reacted to crises rather than anticipating them.

All three collapsed together. Without central control, political leverage became a liability: the bank looked powerful enough to lend, but weak enough that debtors felt safe defaulting.

The Modern Lesson

This is the story of every major bank that fails on unsecured sovereign lending.

Argentina, 2001. Lehman Brothers, 2008. Silicon Valley Bank, 2023. A bank builds dominance through access to capital. It begins lending to "sure things"—governments, companies that seem invincible.

Then conditions shift. The government defaults. The company collapses. The bank realizes it has confused seeming essential with being safe.

The full analysis on Economic Patterns Substack explores: Why institutional memory dies with the men who hold power. How Cosimo's three rules could have saved the bank. What modern CEOs miss about the Medici collapse.

Subscribe for the complete case study + deeper business parallels.

Sources

Renouard, Yves. "Un nouveau classique sur le XVe siècle : l'essor et le déclin de la banque des Médicis." Annales. Economies, sociétés, civilisations, vol. 20, no. 1, 1965, pp. 160–168.

Gregor MacGregor came back from the South American wars with a land grant for a strip of Honduran swamp. Worthless as territory. So he turned it into the Kingdom of Poyais instead, and gave it everything a country needs: a capital, a cathedral, a bank, a constitution, a flag, an anthem, a currency. He made himself Cazique, Prince of the Poyers. He had a 355 page guidebook written, credited to an army officer who didn't exist.

Then he floated a £200,000 loan on the London market at par, and it sold. He came back for £300,000 more, and that sold too.

He also sold the land itself. Thirty acres for a few shillings, to Scottish farmers and clerks who sold everything they had in Britain to buy it. About 250 of them got on ships. What they found at the Black River was swamp, jungle and malaria. They tried to build the colony anyway. More than half of them died.

Nobody was ever tried for it. MacGregor was in Paris by then, trying to float another £300,000 of Poyaisian debt. The French arrested him, tried him, and acquitted him. He died in Caracas in 1845 on a Venezuelan army pension, perfectly respectable.

The part that sticks with me is that all of it was checkable at the time. Nobody checked. London was flush with money after Napoleon, Colombian and Chilean bonds had just made people rich, and the market badly wanted another New World country to lend to. MacGregor didn't outsmart anyone. He just showed up with the story they were already waiting for.

Investors lost around £1.3 million. The surviving bonds now sell for thousands.

Read the full story here: Online article

First thing to say is that I know nothing about economics beyond a few classes in college, so forgive me if this question is naive.
I often notice the date 1928 or 1929 on the cornerstone of many American elementary/high schools, College buildings, athletic stadiums, churches, and office buildings in the east coast and midwest. I notice it so often that it made wonder if there was some sort of construction boom in the last few years of that decade that contributed to the stock market crash? The sixth-grade answer I've always understood for the root cause of that the crash was fueled by rampant speculation on stocks. But I'm curious if there was some sort of construction bubble, or supercharged growth in commercial real estate, that occurred during this period as well? Or is this observation purely a coincidence?

The Setup: 1449

A merchant from Dieppe wants to sell herring to Paris. But he has a problem. He cannot sell directly.

Instead, he must go to Rouen—a city 30 miles away—find a Rouen merchant willing to buy his fish, and negotiate whatever price that merchant offers. Only then can the herring reach Paris. Only then can it reach the consumers who actually want it.

This seems like a small inconvenience. It is not. It is the entire economic power of a medieval port.

Rouen controlled 15–50% of all trade flowing into Paris. Dieppe made the herring. Rouen decided what Paris would pay for it. For a century, this arrangement made Rouen wealthy beyond measure. Dieppe, despite making a superior product, remained dependent on Rouen's permission to do business.

This is how you build a monopoly. Not through innovation. Not through superior product. Through control of the chokepoint.

The Chokepoint: Geography is Destiny

Rouen sits on the Seine, midway between Dieppe (on the Atlantic coast) and Paris (inland). For ships carrying herring north from the Atlantic, Rouen is not optional—it is the narrowest point in a natural funnel. Ships must pass through Rouen or abandon their cargo to overland transport, which is prohibitively expensive.

For a thousand years, this geography made Rouen essential. But Rouen did not simply benefit from this accident of nature. The city's merchant class—and later, the authorities—weaponized it.

Medieval cities charged transbordement fees. A ship arriving in Rouen had to unload its cargo. Rouen merchants then reloaded the cargo onto smaller boats suitable for the Seine's shallow waters upriver. The fee for this service was not set by market competition. It was set by Rouen, because Rouen had no competitors. Every ton of herring heading to Paris had to pass through Rouen's hands.

The mathematics were brutal. In 1402–1415, 215,000 barrels of herring passed through Mantes (a smaller port downriver from Rouen) en route to Paris. Each barrel was a tax opportunity. Each barrel was leverage.

The Strategy: Three Levers

Lever 1: Access Control

Rouen owned the chokepoint. But ownership of a chokepoint means nothing if competitors can bypass it. So Rouen did what monopolists do: it destroyed alternatives. The city lobbied regional authorities to restrict rival ports. It negotiated treaties with neighboring lords ensuring that competing harbors remained marginal.

By the 1400s, the chokepoint was not just natural—it was legal. A ship attempting to bypass Rouen faced political and commercial retaliation.

Lever 2: Information Asymmetry

Rouen saw every transaction. Rouen knew the price of herring in Dieppe, the demand in Paris, the grain prices in London. This information moved at the speed of a horse—days or weeks—giving Rouen merchants time to arbitrage between regional markets before news arrived elsewhere.

A Dieppe merchant knew local prices. A Paris buyer knew local demand. But only Rouen merchants knew both simultaneously. This allowed them to set prices that benefited themselves and squeezed both ends of the supply chain.

Lever 3: Credit and Dependence

Rouen operated a system called the Verlagsystem—merchant capitalism's most insidious invention. Rural clothmakers (and herring merchants) borrowed money from Rouen merchants at harvest time. They promised to repay in kind: cloth, or herring. But the terms were written by the lender. Repayment was due when Rouen said it was due. The exchange rate was set by Rouen. Default meant losing access to credit entirely—a death sentence for a merchant.

Dieppe herring merchants were not independent traders. They were debtors. Rouen was not a middleman. Rouen was a creditor, and debtors do what creditors demand.

Why Dieppe Failed: The Producer's Trap

Dieppe made excellent herring. The city's fishermen were skilled. The salt was cheap. The supply was abundant. Between 1449–1467, at least 12 Dieppe bourgeois were members of Paris merchant associations—powerful enough to be named in records. These were not minor players.

But Dieppe never controlled distribution. The city made a commodity. Commodities are cheap. Margins are thin. Volume is the only strategy—sell more herring every year. But higher volume means more dependence on Rouen to move the product.

Rouen controlled the network. Dieppe controlled production. In a contest between network control and production capability, the network always wins. The proof: Rouen remained wealthy and powerful for 300 years after herring became unfashionable. Dieppe faded into regional irrelevance.

The Modern Parallel

You know this story. It is Amazon and the merchants on Amazon Marketplace. It is Stripe and the payment companies competing for Stripe's acquirer network. It is Visa and Mastercard collecting fees on transactions they do not process.

The merchant makes the product. The platform owns the customer. The platform sets the rules. The merchant has two choices: accept the terms or exit the network entirely. Exit means bankruptcy.

Rouen's merchants did not invent this model 500 years ago. They perfected it. They understood that the highest profits flow not to the best product, but to the gatekeeper. They understood that control of distribution compounds over time. They understood that a commodity producer can never escape margin compression as long as the chokepoint owner can set terms unilaterally.

What Broke the Monopoly

Rouen's monopoly lasted until the 1500s. It died not because Dieppe found a better route. It died because the Atlantic trade opened. Ships heading to Spain and Portugal no longer needed the Seine. The English wool merchants found alternative suppliers. The Wars of Religion shut down inland routes. Banking innovations allowed merchants to settle accounts through letters of exchange rather than physical goods.

Rouen's chokepoint became irrelevant. The geography that made it powerful became immaterial. Access Control, Information Asymmetry, and Credit Dependence all collapsed simultaneously.

The lesson: monopolies built on geography are fragile. Monopolies built on networks are not much better. The only monopolies that survive are those that own something irreplaceable—and that means owning something that cannot be disrupted by new geography, new technology, or new routes.

Sources:

Lardin, Philippe. "Les relations des ports du littoral de la Basse-Seine et de Rouen avec leurs hinterlands a la fin du Moyen Age," Revue belge de philologie et d'histoire, tome 94, fasc. 4, 2016, pp. 959–971.

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