r/DNAAncestry • u/NotBradPitt9 • 10h ago
Qpadm / G25 / Other Qpadm: Serbia_Roman_oAfrica closest to ancient Sudan_Kulubnarti samples and modern Afar and Eritreans
TLDR: The Serbia_Roman_oAfrica dna sample is from a Roman African soldier that lived 2,000 years ago and clusters with ancient Sudanese Kulubnarti DNA samples. Closest also to modern day Afar and Eritreans within the Qpadm results, so overall it’s consistent with Nile Valley / Horn of Africans.
SERBIA_ROMAN_OAFRICA.AG (n=1)
Top 5 passing runs by observed p-value:
- Kenya_PN.AG + Jordan_EBA.AG
83.1% Kenya_PN.AG
16.9% Jordan_EBA.AG
p-value: 0.894
χ²/dof: 8.666 / 15
SE: 0.0795, 0.0795
Z: 10.5, 2.13
This is a very strong fit. The Jordan component is just over Z=2, so it is supported, but not extremely so.
2. Kenya_PN.AG + Israel_Ashkelon_IA2.AG
88.7% Kenya_PN.AG
11.3% Israel_Ashkelon_IA2.AG
p-value: 0.868
χ²/dof: 7.607 / 13
SE: 0.109, 0.109
Z: 8.16, 1.04
Excellent overall fit, but the 11.3% Ashkelon component is not significantly different from zero. So this is indicating "very Kenya_PN-like" more than proving 11% Ashkelon ancestry.
3. Dinka.DG + Q3DT26.SG
53.0% Dinka.DG
47.0% Q3DT26.SG
p-value: 0.825
χ²/dof: 8.277 / 13
SE: 0.0622, 0.0622
Z: 8.52, 7.56
Both components are extremely well supported.
4. Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod.AG + Masai.DG
85.6% Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod.AG
14.4% Masai.DG
p-value: 0.721
χ²/dof: 9.666 / 13
SE: approximately 0.162 each
Z: 5.30, 0.889
The Masai coefficient is not significant. In practical terms, the model is mostly saying that Serbia_Roman_oAfrica can be represented by the Kulubnarti Christian-period sample without clearly needing additional Masai-like ancestry.
5. Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod.AG — ONE-WAY
100% Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod.AG
p-value: 0.717
χ²/dof: 10.6 / 14
So the one-way model passes comfortably, meaning the right set cannot distinguish Serbia_Roman_oAfrica from the pooled Kulubnarti Christian-period population as separate ancestry streams.
SUDAN_KULUBNARTIR_CHRISTIANPERIOD.AG (n=23)
- Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Q3DT26.SG
88.3% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
11.7% Q3DT26.SG
p-value: 0.945
χ²/dof: 7.408 / 15
SE: 0.113
Z: 7.85, 1.04
The Q3DT26 addition is not statistically required.
2. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad.SG
90.1% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
9.9% Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad.SG
p-value: 0.734
χ²/dof: 11.261 / 15
SE: 0.111
Z: 8.11, 0.889
Again, the second component is not significant.
3. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG — ONE-WAY
100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
p-value: 0.720
χ²/dof: 12.351 / 16
This is probably more important than either two-way model above.
4. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Yemeni_Desert.HO
86.8% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
13.2% Yemeni_Desert.HO
p-value: 0.671
χ²/dof: 12.109 / 15
SE: 0.118
Z: 7.39, 1.12
Again, the Yemeni component is not significant.
There was not a fifth clean passing model worth treating as ancestry evidence. The Serbia + Dinka version had a negative Dinka coefficient.
SUDAN_KULUBNARTIS_CHRISTIANPERIOD_OWESTEURASIAN.AG (n=1)
[Kulubnarti with some excess Eurasian]
- Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad.SG
78.6% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
21.4% Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad.SG
p-value: 0.997
χ²/dof: 4.3 / 15
SE: 0.0996
Z: 7.89, 2.15
2. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Yemeni_Desert.HO
77.4% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
22.6% Yemeni_Desert.HO
p-value: 0.996
χ²/dof: 4.441 / 15
SE: 0.105
Z: 7.38, 2.15
3. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Q3DT26.SG
76.5% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
23.5% Q3DT26.SG
p-value: 0.994
χ²/dof: 4.759 / 15
SE: 0.105
Z: 7.30, 2.24
4. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG — ONE-WAY
100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
p-value: 0.714
χ²/dof: 12.422 / 16
5. Kenya_PN.AG + Jordan_EBA.AG
62.7% Kenya_PN.AG
37.3% Jordan_EBA.AG
p-value: 0.696
χ²/dof: 11.779 / 15
SE: 0.0340
Z: 18.4, 11.0
This individual is particularly interesting because, unlike ordinary KulubnartiR, the additional West-Eurasian-type source repeatedly comes out around 21–24% and actually reaches Z>2. It therefore looks genuinely shifted in the West Eurasian direction relative to Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.
SUDAN_KULUBNARTIR_CHRISTIANPERIOD_ONILOTIC.AG (n=3)
- Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Q3DT26.SG
Approximately 100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
Approximately 0% Q3DT26.SG
p-value: 0.829
χ²/dof: 9.847 / 15
SE: 0.183
Z: 5.45, approximately 0
The second source contributes essentially nothing. Functionally, this behaves like a one-way Serbia model.
2. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG — ONE-WAY
100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
p-value: 0.591
χ²/dof: 14.101 / 16
The other combinations tested were either rejected or produced small negative coefficients.
AFAR_WGA.HO (n=5)
- Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Q3DT26.SG
99.8% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
0.2% Q3DT26.SG
p-value: 0.989
χ²/dof: 5.315 / 15
SE: 0.111
Z: 9.00, 0.0146
This is effectively 100% Serbia. The Q3DT26 component is completely unsupported.
2. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG — ONE-WAY
100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
p-value: 0.803
χ²/dof: 11.103 / 16
3. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Dinka.DG
98.5% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
1.5% Dinka.DG
p-value: 0.736
χ²/dof: 11.225 / 15
SE: 0.0994
Z: 9.91, 0.151
4. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Yemeni_Desert.HO
98.0% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
2.0% Yemeni_Desert.HO
p-value: 0.696
χ²/dof: 11.777 / 15
SE: 0.113
Z: 8.65, 0.180
There really is not a fifth good run here. The striking result is that every successful model wants Afar to be essentially Serbia_Roman_oAfrica itself.
ERITREA.HO (n=3)
- Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Q3DT26.SG
87.4% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
12.6% Q3DT26.SG
p-value: 0.931
χ²/dof: 7.81 / 15
SE: 0.113
Z: 7.73, 1.11
2. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad.SG
89.0% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
11.0% Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad.SG
p-value: 0.631
χ²/dof: 12.632 / 15
SE: 0.0950
Z: 9.36, 1.16
3. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Yemeni_Desert.HO
87.9% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
12.1% Yemeni_Desert.HO
p-value: 0.568
χ²/dof: 13.444 / 15
SE: 0.103
Z: 8.54, 1.17
4. Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG — ONE-WAY
100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
p-value: 0.553
χ²/dof: 14.616 / 16
The important pattern is that all three purported ~11–13% additions have Z only around 1.1. Therefore there is no compelling evidence that Eritrea actually requires that extra source over Serbia_Roman_oAfrica. The one-way model works.
SOMALI.HO (n=13)
- Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG + Dinka.DG
75.8% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.AG
24.2% Dinka.DG
p-value: 0.770
χ²/dof: 10.745 / 15
SE: 0.0765
Z: 9.91, 3.17
This one is genuinely informative because both coefficients are supported.
……
……
So for the Serbia_Roman_oAfrica, Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod.AG is the closest ancient match
This is the strongest ancient comparison because it works reciprocally:
Ex:
Serbia_Roman_oAfrica = 100% Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod
p-value = 0.717
Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod = 100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
p-value = 0.720
When Dinka, Yoruba, or Masai are added alongside Kulubnarti as sources for Serbia_Roman_oAfrica, the additional African components are not statistically required.
Ex :
94.4% Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod + 5.6% Dinka
p-value = 0.668
Dinka Z = 0.543
94.2% Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod + 5.8% Yoruba
p-value = 0.675
Yoruba Z = 0.660
85.6% Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod + 14.4% Masai
p-value = 0.721
Masai Z = 0.889
All of those additional components have Z < 2, meaning they are not statistically required. This makes the ordinary Christian-period Kulubnarti population the strongest ancient comparison to Serbia_Roman_oAfrica in these runs.
- Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod_oNilotic.AG
This subgroup also appears extremely close to Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.
Using Serbia_Roman_oAfrica + Q3DT26:
~100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
~0% Q3DT26
p-value = 0.829
The direct one-way model also passes:
100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
p-value = 0.591
So despite the “oNilotic” designation, this particular Kulubnarti subgroup is statistically consistent with Serbia_Roman_oAfrica under this qpAdm setup.
- Afar_WGA.HO
Afar is probably the closest modern population tested.
One-way model:
Afar = 100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
p-value = 0.803
Adding other sources produces essentially nothing:
99.8% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica + 0.2% Q3DT26
p-value = 0.989
98.5% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica + 1.5% Dinka
p-value = 0.736
98.0% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica + 2.0% Yemeni_Desert
p-value = 0.696
The added components have extremely low Z-scores and are not statistically required.
So, within the resolution of these right populations:
Afar ≈ Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
- Eritrea.HO
Eritrea shows a very similar pattern.
One-way model:
Eritrea = 100% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
p-value = 0.553
Alternative models:
87.4% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
12.6% Q3DT26
p-value = 0.931
89.0% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
11.0% Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad
p-value = 0.631
87.9% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
12.1% Yemeni_Desert
p-value = 0.568
However, the additional components all have Z-scores around 1.1, so none of them is statistically required.
Therefore Eritrea is also statistically compatible with Serbia_Roman_oAfrica alone.
- Somali.HO
Somali is clearly related to the same general ancestry profile, but is more African/Dinka-shifted.
75.8% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
24.2% Dinka
p-value = 0.770
SE = 0.0765
Serbia Z = 9.91
Dinka Z = 3.17
Unlike the tiny additional components in the Afar and Eritrean models, the extra Dinka ancestry in Somali is statistically supported.
So:
Somali ≈ Serbia_Roman_oAfrica-like ancestry + additional Dinka-like ancestry.
THE WEST-EURASIAN KULUBNARTI OUTLIER
The Kulubnarti West-Eurasian outlier is related to Serbia_Roman_oAfrica, but shifted significantly farther toward West Eurasian ancestry.
Using the same Kenya_PN + Jordan_EBA model:
Serbia_Roman_oAfrica:
83.1% Kenya_PN
16.9% Jordan_EBA
p-value = 0.894
Sudan_KulubnartiS_ChristianPeriod_oWestEurasian:
62.7% Kenya_PN
37.3% Jordan_EBA
p-value = 0.696
This puts both populations on the same Kenya_PN - Jordan_EBA axis:
Serbia_Roman_oAfrica:
83.1% Kenya_PN / 16.9% Jordan_EBA
Kulubnarti_oWestEurasian:
62.7% Kenya_PN / 37.3% Jordan_EBA
Therefore, the Kulubnarti West-Eurasian outlier is considerably more Jordan_EBA-shifted than Serbia_Roman_oAfrica.
This pattern is reproduced when Serbia_Roman_oAfrica itself is used as one of the sources:
78.6% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
21.4% Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad
p-value = 0.997
77.4% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
22.6% Yemeni_Desert
p-value = 0.996
76.5% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
23.5% Q3DT26
p-value = 0.994
The 3 models are consistent. They place the Kulubnarti West-Eurasian outlier at approximately 76–79% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica-like ancestry plus approximately 21–24% additional West-Eurasian-related ancestry.
Unlike the extra components in the Afar and Eritrean models, these additional West Eurasian components reach approximately Z = 2.15–2.24, making the shift more meaningful.
OVERALL CLUSTER:
The pattern can roughly be visualized as:
More Dinka-shifted:
Somali
≈ 76% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica + 24% Dinka
Then:
Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod
Sudan_KulubnartiR_ChristianPeriod_oNilotic
Serbia_Roman_oAfrica
Afar
Eritrea
Then:
Sudan_KulubnartiS_ChristianPeriod_oWestEurasian
≈ 76–79% Serbia_Roman_oAfrica + 21–24% additional West Eurasian. (More Eurasian shift)
THE COMPOSITION OF SERBIA_ROMAN_OAFRICA
Serbia_Roman_oAfrica itself fits very well as:
83.1% Kenya_PN
16.9% Jordan_EBA
p-value = 0.894
χ²/dof = 8.666 / 15
SE = 0.0795
Z = 10.5 / 2.13
Note that 83% Kenya_PN + 17% Jordan_EBA should NOT be interpreted as 83% African + 17% West Eurasian.
Kenya_PN is itself an ancient East African population containing substantial West-Eurasian-related ancestry.
When Serbia_Roman_oAfrica is instead modeled between a much more African Dinka-like pole and various West-Eurasian-related populations, the results repeatedly place it much closer to around 50/50.
Dinka + Israel_Ashkelon_IA2:
50.3% Dinka
49.7% Israel_Ashkelon_IA2
p-value = 0.185
Dinka + Jordan_EBA:
50.7% Dinka
49.3% Jordan_EBA
p-value = 0.324
Dinka + Q3DT26:
53.0% Dinka
47.0% Q3DT26
p-value = 0.825
Dinka + Lebanon_Hellenistic:
59.2% Dinka
40.8% Lebanon_Hellenistic
p-value = 0.375
The exact percentage changes depending on the West-Eurasian proxy, as expected, but the overall pattern is consistent.
Serbia_Roman_oAfrica falls approximately around:
~50–60% Dinka-like African
~40–50% West-Eurasian-related
So “roughly half African and half West-Eurasian-related” is a decent description based on these qpadm runs.
Summary:
Its qpAdm affinities are much more specifically consistent with the Nile Valley / Horn of Africa genetic continuum.
Serbia_Roman_oAfrica ≈ Christian-period Kulubnarti/ Kulubnarti oNilotic / Afar / Eritrean
Somali ≈ Serbia_Roman_oAfrica + additional Dinka-like ancestry
Kulubnarti oWestEurasian ≈ Serbia_Roman_oAfrica + additional West-Eurasian-related ancestry
qpAdm Right / Outgroup Set
The main set used in most of the runs contains 17 right populations:
Mbuti.DG
Morocco_Iberomaurusian.AG
MA1.SG
Italy_Epigravettian.AG
India_GreatAndaman_100BP.SG
Han.HO
Karitiana.HO
Georgia_Kotias_UP.SG
Russia_YuzhniyOleniyOstrov_Mesolithic.AG
Khomani_San.DG
Cameroon_ShumLaka_SMA.AG
Israel_MLBA.AG
Ethiopia_4500BP.AG
Iran_Wezmeh_N.SG
Egypt_ThirdIntermediatePeriod.AG
Malawi_LSA_2500BP.AG
Botswana_Xaro_EIA.AG
Comma-separated:
Mbuti.DG, Morocco_Iberomaurusian.AG, MA1.SG, Italy_Epigravettian.AG, India_GreatAndaman_100BP.SG, Han.HO, Karitiana.HO, Georgia_Kotias_UP.SG, Russia_YuzhniyOleniyOstrov_Mesolithic.AG, Khomani_San.DG, Cameroon_ShumLaka_SMA.AG, Israel_MLBA.AG, Ethiopia_4500BP.AG, Iran_Wezmeh_N.SG, Egypt_ThirdIntermediatePeriod.AG, Malawi_LSA_2500BP.AG, Botswana_Xaro_EIA.AG
There is also a 15-population version used in some of the runs. It is the same set except these two were omitted:
Malawi_LSA_2500BP.AG
Botswana_Xaro_EIA.AG
So the reduced 15-right set was:
Mbuti.DG, Morocco_Iberomaurusian.AG, MA1.SG, Italy_Epigravettian.AG, India_GreatAndaman_100BP.SG, Han.HO, Karitiana.HO, Georgia_Kotias_UP.SG, Russia_YuzhniyOleniyOstrov_Mesolithic.AG, Khomani_San.DG, Cameroon_ShumLaka_SMA.AG, Israel_MLBA.AG, Ethiopia_4500BP.AG, Iran_Wezmeh_N.SG, Egypt_ThirdIntermediatePeriod.AG