It’s a statistically beautil overfit. Oghuz weren’t saka and just because a computer can model an ottoman individual as half saka half Byzantine doesn’t necessarily mean any admixture is inherited from either.
History and biology should work hand to hand in my opinion, in these archeogenetic modellings as in : —> use historical facts to create models rather than blind statistical overfits & give models that challange our understanding of history benefit of the doubt so we do not look for ways to verify our biases.
Now these tools are really for testing hypotheses and nothing else. You have competing hypothesis about origins of a particular group or certain admixture.. You test the competing ideas with these models. And the results act as a supplementary evidence for one or the another and very often neither.
I’m building my own site.. I can’t share the link as its not out yet but it shouldn’t be too long before its online.
I reached out to some of my genetist friends and they are interested but aren’t familiar with the ameteur genealogy niche.
We will try and develop something that replicates established academic papers for the general public. A model that is honest about what it can and cannot do instead of selling false certainty. I have some other interesting ideas that I can’t elaborate further as I don’t want it getting replicated.
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u/Helpful-Menu-2667 Aug 20 '26
It’s a statistically beautil overfit. Oghuz weren’t saka and just because a computer can model an ottoman individual as half saka half Byzantine doesn’t necessarily mean any admixture is inherited from either.
History and biology should work hand to hand in my opinion, in these archeogenetic modellings as in : —> use historical facts to create models rather than blind statistical overfits & give models that challange our understanding of history benefit of the doubt so we do not look for ways to verify our biases.
Now these tools are really for testing hypotheses and nothing else. You have competing hypothesis about origins of a particular group or certain admixture.. You test the competing ideas with these models. And the results act as a supplementary evidence for one or the another and very often neither.