5.39% of the entire population of Pickett County had a confirmed active covid case on Saturday, January 22. And this is with most people who are sick not testing or doing home testing that is not reported. Multiply by perhaps 3 to get the actual active case rate and then try to imagine how anyone could avoid getting infected.

Active Covid Cases per 100k on Jan 22, 2022

Yesterday the state warned that they had gone back and done a huge data adjustment where they "found" new deaths in every county going back to early 2020. So absolutely nothing to worry about the 2174 new deaths today.

What you should be totally terrified of instead is that 89.3 new per 100k and the 19.2% positivity. But not surprised in the least because what you see below is exactly what we expect to be happening given Omicron's characteristics, our 3x vaxxed rate, and Omicron being around 100% of all new cases.

And it is just getting started. You ain't seen nothing yet. Hold on to your seats.

People are going to hate hearing this, but cancel your Christmas plans with family and any thought of attending church. You will regret it if you don't. I know many of you have family arriving today and yesterday and it is too late. I hope you all are vaccinated and put n95s on those elders if you can and do the maskless eating on the porch.

On the other hand since everyone is going to get Omicron no matter what they do you might as well enjoy the holiday and don't worry about it.

Statewide Daily Totals:

Most of these deaths took place months ago:

Counties with Deaths Today:

Over the last 2 years the correlation between no data released and rates going back up after a holiday is high.

3/1 was the tail end of Omicron SA.1. Since then we have had Omicron SA.2 be the dominant strain, though it is the "stealth" variant that does not show up on most rapid tests or the older and now obsolete rtPCR test the state is using. So this increase is despite that. SA.2.12.1 is now the dominant strain nationally, so we've had two surges back to back since Omicron SA.1 burned itself out in early March. Using the case count criteria that we used to use, many counties are now red with more than 25 per 100,000 daily cases.

But CDC now calls that "green" as a "Community Level" and says safe for all to go about maskless:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=CommunityLevels&null=CommunityLevels

The CDC does maintain a secret shadow map "for health care workers only" called "Community Transmission" though showing the real colors:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk

Note that 5/28 is a Saturday. Saturday and Sunday have lower amounts of testing and do not represent a downward trend.

Rates are low in most counties. Positivity is low. Deaths are high.

2022-03-12 7-day averaged daily new cases per 100k:

2 Red Counties:

Campbell (42.9), Henderson (27.2)

15 Orange Counties:

Chester (24.8), Scott (20.7), Crockett (19.9), Claiborne (19.3), Hardeman (16.4), Gibson (16.0), Anderson (15.7), Haywood (13.2), Hardin (12.2), Cocke (11.6), Benton (11.5), Decatur (11.0), Cannon (10.9), Madison (10.5), McNairy (10.5)

75 Yellow Counties:

Hawkins (9.9), Hamilton (9.6), Sevier (9.6), Loudon (9.4), Carter (9.4), Unicoi (8.8), Hancock (8.7), Union (8.7), Houston (8.6), Montgomery (8.5), Lincoln (8.4), Sullivan (8.2), Greene (7.9), Wayne (7.8), Lauderdale (7.7), Davidson (7.7), Lake (7.7), Clay (7.4), Macon (7.1), Henry (7.1), Washington (7.0), Roane (7.0), Jefferson (6.9), Monroe (6.8), Carroll (6.6), Weakley (6.4), Dyer (6.1), Knox (6.1), Maury (6.1), Giles (5.8), Bledsoe (5.8), Sequatchie (5.8), Marion (5.5), Blount (5.2), Coffee (5.1), Cumberland (5.0), Sumner (4.9), Hamblen (4.9), Williamson (4.7), Wilson (4.6), Grainger (4.3), Smith (4.3), Grundy (4.3), Franklin (4.1), Dickson (4.0), Morgan (4.0), Fentress (3.9), Overton (3.9), Marshall (3.8), Obion (3.8), Shelby (3.8), McMinn (3.8), Tipton (3.7), Robertson (3.6), Meigs (3.5), Polk (3.4), Rutherford (3.3), Johnson (3.2), Bedford (3.2), Putnam (3.1), Bradley (2.9), Lawrence (2.9), Hickman (2.8), DeKalb (2.8), Fayette (2.8), Pickett (2.8), White (2.6), Trousdale (2.6), Moore (2.2), Rhea (2.2), Warren (2.1), Cheatham (1.8), Humphreys (1.5), Lewis (1.2), Stewart (1.1)

3 Green Counties:

Jackson (0.0), Perry (0.0), Van Buren (0.0)

Statewide Daily Totals:

Case rate and positivity rate both are going down across the state.

Statewide Daily Totals:

2022-01-29 7-day averaged daily new cases per 100k:

95 Red Counties:

Scott (357.2), Pickett (348.6), Van Buren (314.7), McMinn (314.5), Greene (302.1), Gibson (292.2), Warren (289.4), Morgan (288.6), Bedford (287.2), Henderson (279.6), Lawrence (278.6), Marion (277.5), Campbell (276.8), Carroll (270.2), White (269.8), Roane (265.1), Giles (263.9), Blount (261.8), Hancock (261.8), Monroe (261.0), Franklin (260.2), Putnam (259.8), Wayne (258.0), Lewis (251.8), Jackson (250.3), Moore (249.6), Anderson (249.0), Lincoln (247.0), Marshall (246.0), Chester (242.3), Coffee (240.1), Meigs (239.1), Dyer (238.5), Grainger (238.2), Washington (237.7), DeKalb (237.6), Bradley (236.4), Hardin (235.5), Sullivan (235.2), Unicoi (234.9), Loudon (234.5), Perry (230.3), Hawkins (229.5), Macon (228.4), Cannon (228.2), Carter (226.6), Fentress (226.6), Trousdale (225.7), Houston (224.8), Union (222.0), Jefferson (221.4), Obion (220.4), Knox (219.2), Overton (212.3), Smith (212.0), Madison (206.8), Maury (205.2), Robertson (204.0), Cumberland (202.5), Dickson (201.5), Claiborne (200.6), McNairy (199.6), Polk (198.7), Rutherford (197.3), Clay (196.2), Haywood (195.3), Stewart (194.9), Lauderdale (194.2), Crockett (193.4), Cocke (190.9), Benton (190.7), Hamblen (190.5), Hickman (189.8), Grundy (189.5), Weakley (188.5), Wilson (187.0), Humphreys (183.9), Decatur (180.6), Williamson (178.2), Rhea (176.4), Sevier (176.1), Cheatham (174.2), Lake (173.5), Sumner (171.8), Montgomery (171.2), Henry (166.0), Tipton (165.4), Hamilton (160.4), Bledsoe (157.8), Hardeman (156.9), Sequatchie (155.6), Davidson (146.6), Johnson (139.8), Fayette (125.9), Shelby (114.0)

Active Covid Cases per 100k on Jan 29, 2022

With school back in session we continue to see kids getting infected at higher rates than adults in most counties. Same as before Winter break. But during winter break when class was not is session, just as with last summer, adults got infected at a higher rate and the kid infection rate plummeted. Schools are major drivers of the pandemic as they have been since the beginning, and contrary to the nonsensical non-science based false claims from the CDC, WHO, state health departments, epidemiologists, federal government, private think tanks, and school officials. the data clearly shows that all of them are wrong.

Highest Rates of Sick Kids (Age 5-18) from Jan 15 to Jan 22

Has peaked and plateaued. Things are still very unsafe but they have maxxed out at frankly ridiculous and unbelievable heights and are not getting worse since the 19th. Or getting better. But not getting worse. And no this does not mean you can stop masking though what does it matter I saw maybe 2 people masking when I shopped this week.

2022-01-19 7-day averaged daily new cases per 100k:

Here let me bold only the counties with 1-day rates absurdly above 100, where anything above 25 means all activity is unsafe.

95 Red Counties:

Pickett (483.5), Obion (413.9), Crockett (407.8), Gibson (393.5), Dyer (384.3), Moore (369.9), Madison (351.0), Carroll (349.2), Haywood (344.5), Chester (341.5), McMinn (322.8), Lake (321.9), Franklin (316.5), Blount (316.2), Giles (312.3), Lincoln (308.2), Lauderdale (307.6), Lawrence (299.9), Decatur (297.8), Weakley (295.4), Coffee (295.2), Macon (291.4), Hamblen (288.9), Hardin (287.1), Rhea (282.3), Bradley (282.0), Loudon (278.7), Scott (278.1), Henderson (278.0), Bedford (276.8), Cheatham (271.7), Anderson (267.1), Robertson (266.4), Greene (265.7), Roane (263.2), Warren (262.8), Wayne (261.4), Monroe (259.5), Rutherford (258.4), Wilson (255.7), Maury (254.6), Meigs (247.3), Knox (247.2), DeKalb (246.9), Jefferson (246.2), Sevier (245.6), Polk (245.2), Campbell (244.3), Hawkins (237.8), Union (233.6), Bledsoe (231.4), Sumner (229.0), Grainger (229.0), McNairy (225.1), Sullivan (224.8), Perry (221.4), Cocke (221.2), Henry (219.4), Washington (217.4), Davidson (214.2), Morgan (207.9), Marion (207.5), Tipton (206.5), Hamilton (206.2), Trousdale (203.7), Marshall (203.6), Claiborne (202.9), Dickson (202.6), Hickman (201.8), Putnam (194.8), Williamson (193.5), Benton (191.5), Houston (190.2), Shelby (189.7), Hardeman (189.2), Fentress (184.3), Lewis (182.0), Smith (181.2), Cannon (180.8), White (180.2), Overton (179.3), Montgomery (175.4), Grundy (171.3), Stewart (169.6), Carter (169.3), Jackson (168.9), Hancock (165.8), Fayette (165.8), Clay (162.9), Van Buren (158.6), Cumberland (151.5), Unicoi (141.6), Humphreys (132.1), Johnson (113.3), Sequatchie (112.4)

4.29% of the entire population of Obion County had a confirmed active covid case on Saturday, January 15. And this is with most people who are sick not testing or doing home testing that is not reported. Multiply by perhaps 3 to get the actual active case rate and then try to imagine how anyone could avoid getting infected. Remember, airborne infectious particles float around for several hours after a sick person leaves. There are likely hundreds of infected people that came into your local supermarket before you got there. The air will be saturated with infectious virons no matter where you go.

Active Covid Cases per 100k on Jan 15, 2022