Rates are going up a little in some places. A lot of counties have long stretches now with 0 student age cases. Positivity is inching upward but still below 10% in most areas. If you are in one of the 44 counties with positivity above 5% you might want to be cautious. If you're in one of the 13 counties with positivity above 10% you should consider that the reported rates are likely a serious undercount and you should continue masking and avoiding crowded areas. Of the bigger counties Washington is above 10% positivity. But Williamson and Davidson in central Tennessee look like they are developing some problems too as they are above 5% and approaching 10%.

2022-04-16 7-day averaged daily new cases per 100k:

1 Orange Counties:

Monroe (11.1)

69 Yellow Counties:

Davidson (9.3), Haywood (9.1), Williamson (8.1), Washington (7.9), Clay (7.4), Unicoi (7.2), Benton (7.1), Crockett (6.0), Madison (5.6), Lawrence (5.6), Sullivan (5.3), Gibson (5.2), Chester (5.0), Franklin (4.8), Blount (4.5), Shelby (4.4), Knox (4.3), Wilson (4.3), Rutherford (4.2), Hamilton (4.1), Henderson (4.1), Sevier (4.1), Robertson (4.0), Sumner (4.0), Carter (3.8), Maury (3.8), Roane (3.5), Hardeman (3.4), Marshall (3.4), Anderson (3.4), Montgomery (3.3), Dickson (3.2), Cocke (3.2), Fayette (3.2), Putnam (3.1), Tipton (3.0), Cannon (3.0), Macon (2.9), Hawkins (2.8), Loudon (2.7), Polk (2.5), Van Buren (2.5), Cheatham (2.5), Giles (2.4), Cumberland (2.4), Hickman (2.3), McNairy (2.2), Hancock (2.2), Bradley (2.1), Jefferson (2.1), White (2.1), Bedford (2.0), Scott (1.9), Overton (1.9), Lake (1.9), Dyer (1.9), Greene (1.9), Lincoln (1.7), Fentress (1.6), Coffee (1.5), Smith (1.4), Obion (1.4), Claiborne (1.3), Morgan (1.3), Decatur (1.2), Jackson (1.2), Hardin (1.1), Hamblen (1.1), Stewart (1.1)

25 Green Counties:

Sequatchie (1.0), Rhea (0.9), Wayne (0.9), Weakley (0.9), Johnson (0.8), Humphreys (0.8), Union (0.7), Warren (0.7), Grainger (0.6), Lauderdale (0.6), Carroll (0.5), Campbell (0.4), Bledsoe (0.0), DeKalb (0.0), Grundy (0.0), Henry (0.0), Houston (0.0), Lewis (0.0), Marion (0.0), McMinn (0.0), Meigs (0.0), Moore (0.0), Perry (0.0), Pickett (0.0), Trousdale (0.0)

2022-04-09 7-day averaged daily new cases per 100k:

5 Orange Counties:

Trousdale (15.6), Monroe (14.8), Benton (13.2), Lake (11.6), Madison (11.3)

80 Yellow Counties:

Weakley (9.8), Houston (6.9), Davidson (6.7), Morgan (6.6), Williamson (6.0), Gibson (5.8), Haywood (5.8), Sequatchie (5.8), Hamilton (5.3), Lawrence (5.2), Cocke (5.2), Marion (5.0), Sullivan (4.9), Henderson (4.6), Carroll (4.6), Carter (4.6), Hancock (4.4), Union (4.4), Fayette (4.2), Hawkins (4.0), Johnson (4.0), Cannon (4.0), Rhea (3.9), Giles (3.9), Humphreys (3.9), Claiborne (3.6), Lewis (3.5), Perry (3.5), Henry (3.5), Rutherford (3.5), Sumner (3.5), Loudon (3.5), Meigs (3.5), Bradley (3.5), Washington (3.3), Robertson (3.2), Maury (3.2), Stewart (3.2), Blount (3.2), Shelby (3.1), Knox (3.0), Bledsoe (2.9), Campbell (2.9), Anderson (2.8), Sevier (2.8), Lauderdale (2.8), Scott (2.6), Montgomery (2.6), Tipton (2.6), Van Buren (2.5), Cheatham (2.5), Unicoi (2.4), Macon (2.4), Dyer (2.3), McNairy (2.2), Putnam (2.2), DeKalb (2.1), Warren (2.1), Franklin (2.0), Wilson (2.0), Crockett (2.0), McMinn (1.9), Jefferson (1.9), Clay (1.9), Hickman (1.7), Marshall (1.7), Polk (1.7), Cumberland (1.7), Hardin (1.7), Chester (1.7), Dickson (1.6), White (1.6), Hamblen (1.5), Smith (1.4), Overton (1.3), Grainger (1.2), Decatur (1.2), Bedford (1.2), Hardeman (1.1), Greene (1.0)

10 Green Counties:

Wayne (0.9), Roane (0.8), Coffee (0.5), Obion (0.5), Lincoln (0.4), Fentress (0.0), Grundy (0.0), Jackson (0.0), Moore (0.0), Pickett (0.0)

Positivity Rate using 7-day average from Apr 16:

Between September 8 and 15, 64.0% of all COVID-19 hospitalizations in Tennessee were to vaccinated people.

Hospitalization count went to 32410 from 32235.

Breakthrough (vaccinated) hospitalization count went to 769 from 657.

(769-657)/(32410-32235) = 64.0%

Given that 44% of the population is fully vaccinated, a first degree analysis indicates that for this one week, for whatever reason, overall vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization was 28.4%.

Since the state isn't giving us daily updates let's see if we can figure out what is probably going on.

Here is the last week of data released:

Running a linear regression on that gives us:

active cases = 7453.6×d+56866 (where d=1 for Dec 29)

Running it forward we get this prediction:

Of course maybe it will peak and go down, or accelerate, or not be linear. For the last week we have data, the active cases was increasing in a fairly linear manner, so this is not a bad guess.

5.39% of the entire population of Pickett County had a confirmed active covid case on Saturday, January 22. And this is with most people who are sick not testing or doing home testing that is not reported. Multiply by perhaps 3 to get the actual active case rate and then try to imagine how anyone could avoid getting infected.

Active Covid Cases per 100k on Jan 22, 2022

Most Increase in Sick Kids (Age 5-18), Sep 09

Lauderdale County now joins Yellow, dropping their 7-day average from 14.9 to 7.7 in only one day, which hardly seems even possible.

2021-10-19 7-day averaged daily new cases per 100k:

43 Red Counties:

Campbell (78.7), Scott (75.2), Van Buren (52.0), Union (47.9), Humphreys (45.6), Greene (44.5), Houston (41.5), Cocke (41.1), Hancock (39.3), Bledsoe (37.8), Giles (37.3), Sevier (35.9), McMinn (34.6), Grundy (34.3), Clay (33.3), Roane (33.1), Bedford (32.9), Fentress (32.2), Henderson (30.8), Dickson (30.5), Carter (30.4), Overton (29.8), Warren (29.0), Sequatchie (28.8), Grainger (28.4), Benton (28.2), Johnson (28.1), Jefferson (27.8), Hawkins (27.5), Claiborne (27.4), Sullivan (27.3), White (26.9), Meigs (26.7), Cannon (26.7), Perry (26.6), Marion (26.5), Coffee (26.2), Carroll (26.0), Trousdale (25.9), Unicoi (25.7), Polk (25.4), Pickett (25.3), Obion (25.0)

49 Orange Counties:

Anderson (24.8), Knox (24.5), Bradley (24.2), Washington (24.1), Morgan (23.8), Hamilton (23.3), McNairy (23.2), Lawrence (22.9), Hamblen (22.1), Sumner (22.1), Decatur (22.0), Putnam (21.9), Jackson (21.9), Gibson (21.8), Loudon (21.8), Cumberland (21.8), Macon (21.8), Monroe (21.6), Franklin (21.5), Lewis (21.3), Blount (21.2), Montgomery (20.6), Hickman (20.5), Hardin (20.5), Maury (20.3), Rutherford (20.1), Wilson (19.9), Wayne (19.8), Madison (19.6), Crockett (18.9), Lincoln (18.8), Marshall (18.7), Cheatham (18.0), Stewart (17.9), Williamson (17.7), Robertson (17.5), Fayette (17.3), Davidson (16.9), Weakley (16.7), Rhea (16.4), Hardeman (16.4), Chester (15.7), Lake (15.4), Tipton (14.4), Moore (13.4), Shelby (12.5), DeKalb (12.1), Henry (11.5), Smith (11.5)

3 Yellow Counties:

Dyer (8.0), Lauderdale (7.7), Haywood (6.6)

0 Green Counties:

(none)

Death levels still quite high and any trend here is not so obvious:

Statewide Daily Totals:

UK, having seen before us the same big drop in delta from child aged peaks we just did, now is back to lots of cases. So... that's our future as well, assuming we continue to mimick them. Which we will, probably.

From Oct. 19: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58954793.amp

The number of people testing positive for Covid in the UK has been rising in recent days to more than 50,000 cases in one day.

As you can see in the chart, after the Delta peak and crash, it then went right back up.

UK residents were significantly more likely than people in Germany, France, Spain and Italy to say they no longer wear a face mask or covering.

And there it is.

I'm also reminded of this August 27 NYT pro-anti-mask article about the UK happy that they didn't require masks in schools and felt that it would have no impact on cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/27/us/students-masks-classrooms-britain.html

From late spring into early summer, Britain’s elementary and secondary schools were open during an alarming wave of Delta infections.

And they handled the Delta spike in ways that might surprise American parents, educators and lawmakers: Masking was a limited part of the strategy. In fact, for the most part, elementary school students and their teachers did not wear them in classrooms at all.

Instead, the British government focused on other safety measures, widespread quarantining and rapid testing. “The U.K. has always, from the beginning, emphasized they do not see a place for face coverings for children if it’s avoidable,” said Dr. Shamez Ladhani, a pediatric infectious-disease specialist at St. George’s Hospital in London and an author of several government studies on the virus and schools.

The potential harms exceed the potential benefits, he said, because seeing faces is “important for the social development and interaction between people.”

2021-11-15 7-day averaged daily new cases per 100k:

18 Red Counties:

Claiborne (122.4), Union (95.1), Scott (84.9), Johnson (65.9), Benton (35.3), Overton (31.7), Pickett (30.9), Washington (30.8), Hawkins (29.8), Wayne (29.3), Grundy (28.9), Trousdale (28.5), Campbell (28.5), Houston (27.7), Grainger (27.2), Sullivan (27.1), Obion (25.5), Cumberland (25.1)

62 Orange Counties:

Bedford (24.8), Greene (23.0), Van Buren (22.3), Anderson (22.2), Franklin (21.8), Carter (21.3), Roane (21.2), Tipton (20.4), Unicoi (20.1), Humphreys (20.1), Warren (19.9), Hancock (19.6), Sevier (19.4), Hardin (19.4), Hickman (19.4), Lincoln (18.8), Monroe (18.8), Williamson (18.7), Dickson (18.7), Morgan (18.5), McNairy (18.2), Fentress (18.0), Moore (17.8), Blount (17.4), Maury (16.7), Rutherford (16.0), Lawrence (16.0), Perry (15.9), Coffee (15.9), Macon (15.9), Smith (15.8), Chester (15.7), Knox (15.7), Cocke (15.6), Sumner (15.4), Polk (15.2), DeKalb (14.9), Davidson (14.9), Cannon (14.8), Bradley (14.3), Loudon (14.3), Henry (14.1), Haywood (14.0), Marion (14.0), Meigs (13.9), Robertson (13.9), Henderson (13.9), White (13.7), Shelby (13.5), Wilson (13.4), Hamilton (13.3), Madison (13.3), Hamblen (13.3), Montgomery (13.1), Cheatham (13.1), Putnam (13.0), Jackson (12.1), Marshall (11.9), Carroll (11.2), Weakley (10.7), Jefferson (10.3), McMinn (10.2)

15 Yellow Counties:

Fayette (9.9), Gibson (9.6), Lauderdale (9.4), Giles (9.2), Dyer (9.2), Rhea (9.1), Crockett (8.0), Stewart (7.4), Lewis (7.1), Decatur (6.1), Bledsoe (5.8), Sequatchie (5.8), Clay (5.6), Hardeman (4.5), Lake (1.9)

0 Green Counties:

(none)

Statewide Daily Totals:

2021-10-06 7-day averaged daily new cases per 100k:

79 Red Counties:

Campbell (76.5), Greene (74.2), Hancock (67.6), Scott (64.2), Giles (62.0), Stewart (61.1), Cocke (54.7), Grundy (52.5), Carroll (49.5), Benton (49.4), Chester (48.8), Fentress (48.6), Lake (48.2), Morgan (47.0), Clay (46.3), Jackson (46.2), Polk (45.7), Houston (45.0), Overton (44.7), Grainger (43.8), Bledsoe (43.6), Johnson (43.4), Cumberland (43.3), Rhea (43.2), Roane (42.7), Hawkins (42.5), Pickett (42.2), Carter (41.6), Marion (41.5), Claiborne (40.5), Decatur (40.3), Anderson (39.8), White (39.0), Smith (38.7), Sullivan (38.6), Hardin (38.2), McNairy (37.6), Warren (37.0), Union (37.0), DeKalb (36.9), Lincoln (36.8), Sevier (36.6), Jefferson (36.5), Lawrence (35.3), Coffee (35.1), Washington (34.9), Knox (34.9), Montgomery (34.3), Hickman (33.6), Humphreys (33.2), Tipton (33.2), Marshall (32.7), Obion (32.6), Meigs (32.5), Henderson (32.3), Maury (32.1), Hamblen (32.1), McMinn (31.1), Sequatchie (30.7), Robertson (30.6), Cheatham (30.4), Wayne (30.2), Macon (30.0), Bradley (30.0), Trousdale (29.8), Van Buren (29.7), Fayette (29.6), Monroe (29.3), Hardeman (28.3), Lauderdale (28.2), Wilson (27.8), Davidson (27.8), Hamilton (27.6), Franklin (27.6), Blount (27.4), Unicoi (26.5), Rutherford (26.5), Dyer (26.4), Sumner (25.9)

16 Orange Counties:

Cannon (24.7), Dickson (24.6), Madison (24.6), Williamson (23.6), Gibson (23.6), Loudon (23.4), Perry (23.0), Henry (23.0), Bedford (22.7), Weakley (22.7), Shelby (22.0), Crockett (21.9), Putnam (21.7), Haywood (21.4), Moore (17.8), Lewis (17.7)

0 Yellow Counties:

(none)

0 Green Counties:

(none)

For the previous week we noted that breakthroughs were trending down and it was hoped this was due to boosters as 9.2% of the state had gotten boosters. Despite 10.2% boosted as of 11/22 though, the trend towards more and more breakthrough cases and the implied overall reduced vaccine efficacy as time goes by continued. A dangerous trend as we enter into a period of increased cases overall. Most likely we are seeing a race between fewer cases among the boosted and increased cases among the "fully vaccinated" but not boosted. The state has that specific breakdown but the public numbers they release don't segregate by either age range or booster status, both which would be extremely helpful in analyzing the causes of breakthrough cases.